For months on end, I have been extolling the virtues of the Celtics as a basketball team. Their tough defense, their rarely shown playoff gear, the ridiculous number of big win scalps they’ve collected since the Big 3 were put together. As a fan, I have dreaded the thought of the Knicks drawing them in a playoff series, because I legitimately thought they were the one team that could not only beat the Knicks, but flat out embarrass them.
But since that game on March 21, things have changed. It’s no revelation to say that Celtics aren’t what they once were, in terms of roster configuration or on court performance. A lot of people would argue that the Celtics are reaching for the same rope a dope tactic that propelled them to the Finals last year. Just sit back, let your opponent get the points that don’t mean anything, let them get overconfident and then come charging out with full reserves of energy in the late rounds to win the fight. That could be true, but the reason I don’t believe it is the same reason there wasn’t an Ali-Foreman rematch. That trick only works once, and I think the Celtics know that. They may be getting the media to count them out, but this time around, the teams in the eastern conference won’t be caught punchless against Boston in the playoffs.
The more I think about the game a month ago, the more confident I feel going into the series. The Knicks came out full of energy and raced to a 14 point halftime lead, and Doc decided to go to the whip early instead of saving it for the last quarter pole. New York, in their newest iteration, was the one team that hadn’t seen the Celtics’ “rise from the dead” routine yet. I think if the game was last year, Doc just lets the team play it out as is. Maybe they shoot themselves back into it, maybe the Knicks shoot themselves out of it, but a team the caliber of the Celtics should have bigger things to worry about then a March away game against anyone. Let the Knicks get one, let them start talking about how they want the Celtics, and then flip over the straight flush in the playoffs and empty their bankroll like Teddy KGB.
But Doc chose to show his hand early, and to their credit, the Celtics flat out bumrushed the Knicks after halftime. They brought out the playoff intensity, closed off the passing lanes and thoroughly outhustled a team that thought they could somehow coast to a great home victory over the reigning alpha team of the eastern conference.
On the scale between sending a message and pressing the panic button, I tend to think that what happened that night leaned towards the latter. Why give the Knicks any idea of what they would be facing in the playoffs? Why send Melo home with cuts on his eye and bruises to his ego thinking “I wish I had one more chance at them” when he’s going to have another chance? Save the suffocating-diving for balls-eye elbowing defense for when it’s needed. That night reminded me of Tony Soprano beating the shit out of his driver to prove that he was still top dog, and then throwing up in the bathroom sink moments later. It was a very oddly timed strategic move, and I think it’s because the Celtics aren’t what they once were in a number of ways.
Comparing last year’s Celtic slide to this year’s shows two big differences: scoring, and the roster. When the Celtics seemingly went in the tank leading up to the playoffs last year, they were still scoring a respectable amount of points in most of their games. A 110-97 loss to the Jazz, a 109-104 loss to the Thunder, 101-93 to the Bulls. Their defense was their ultimate shortcoming in those games, and it was clearly because they were resting. By playoff time they had saved enough gas in the tank to go back to their suffocating brand of man to man without the risk of tiring out.
This year, it’s an entirely different and infinitely more worrying issue for Celtics fans. The defense has been there, which means they’re not dogging it in these games, they’re trying to win. Since the Knicks game, the Celtics are averaging 91.75 points per game, almost a full five points lower than they’ve been averaging for the season. That number would be 2nd worst in the NBA over the course of the season, ahead of just the Bucks. Ray Allen is shooting 30.6% from three, KG is still shooting at a respectable clip, but he’s no longer a franchise scorer who can average 20+ for a series. Rondo, as usual, has been all over the map, and Jeff Green has only scored over 10 points in one game, which was last night’s contest in Washington where he took 20 shots to get that many points. Say what you may about Knicks, but the one thing that teams need to do to beat them is score. Maybe the Celtics will shut them down for one game, but realistically the Knicks are going to get to triple digits almost every night. Teams have to hit their shots to win, and the Celtics haven’t shown that they can recently.
Obviously losing Kendrick Perkins was the most talked about theory as to why the Celtics have been struggling. But again, Perkins is only averaging 6.1 PPG this season, so in terms of the offense, he’s not a huge a loss. However, the rest of their role players from last year were huge losses. The only holdover from the bench that got the finals last year is Big Baby, who is a solid player that can knock down a 15 foot shot, take charges, and spell Garnett for a few minutes. West could have been a nice pickup, but has been injured all season and got injured last night. Shaq being completely healthy is a delusion, and him being healthy enough to positively contribute seems like an unlikelihood after his recent calf injury. Carlos Arroyo wasn’t good enough for Miami, Troy Murphy has been unsurprisingly invisible since being picked up.
Davis is all that’s left, and the numbers reflect that, he’s been the leading scorer on the bench in 8 of the past 12 Celtics games. Tony Allen in last year’s playoffs had a 14 point game against Miami, and 15 points in Game 4 against Cleveland, both Boston wins. Nate Robinson had 13 points in Game 7 against Orlando, and 12 points in Game 4 against Los Angeles. Rasheed Wallace had 17 points against Cleveland in Game 2, 13 points in Game 7, and 13 points in Game 1 against Orlando, also all wins. Those three players are in Memphis, Oklahoma City, and retired respectively. There’s much more pressure on the Big 3 this year because they have significantly less help, and in the past month that’s been showing up glaringly on the scoreboard. Despite the Knicks being constantly derided for their short rotation, they certainly have a more potent one than their first round opponents.
I’m not going to cop out and say I still think the Celtics will win this series because I don’t. Maybe I’m whistling through the graveyard, but I don’t think the Celtics are just playing dead this time. The big 3’s backs have shouldered a heavy load too many times to do it again, the bench is thinning by the day, and the Knicks are winners of their last seven heading into the playoffs. If the Knicks play defense, which they usually do in big games, they will be able to gut out this series. I see them stealing one up in Boston, defending the Garden, and making baseball season relevant much more quickly than any Boston fan wants. The Knicks may not be the new alpha team in the eastern conference, but the time has come for a change at the top, and they will help facilitate it.
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