Planting the seed of hope at the Garden

1)   

       Stay out of early foul trouble

           In both games, the Knicks early attack has been severely hampered by an important cog getting into foul trouble early. Carmelo Anthony in Game 1, Toney Douglas in Game 2. Instead of being able to create an early advantage with a full strength lineup, they have instead simply had to focus on surviving early Celtics onslaughts. Considering the fact that Stoudemire and Billups’ minutes will be limited (optimistically), Mike D’Antoni already has enough on his plate to deal with in terms of his offensive strategy. Having to adjust his lineups on the fly and dig deeper into the bench will mean that the Knicks will lose this game. 

           If the worst does happen, D’Antoni needs to pull the plug on Douglas a little quicker. When he got in foul trouble early in Game 2, he shied away from contact with Rondo on the break, and Rondo coasted to a triumphant first fame. Whether it’s Anthony Carter or Jared Jeffries, a better more effective option needs to be employed when Toney is in foul trouble.


 Replace Landry Fields.

          As much as I like how Fields has been able to mold himself into an effective NBA player over the course of the season, he has no place in this series and he’s showing it. The Celtics are good at getting Allen shots by creating a house of mirrors with screens, and Landry appears to be lost. Guarding Allen also means that Fields is regularly too far from the hoop to provide his most well refined service, rebounding.

           I would like to see a good deal more of Shawne Williams and Bill Walker in Fields’ stead. Walker had a cringe worthy 0/11 shooting line in Game 2, the law of averages almost require him to be better in Game 3. Even if the improvement on that end isn’t earth shattering, he’s an athletic, versatile defensive option who can spell Carmelo for periods on Paul Pierce. The same can be said for Williams, who can guard practically anybody the Celtics put on the floor with the exception of Rondo. 

           Both options are offensive upgrades from Fields at this juncture, and both have infused the Knicks with a rugged physicality when they’ve stepped on the floor in the series. They are wrenches at Mike D’Antoni’s disposal to throw in the Celtics carefully delegated offensive machine, and at different points this year have shown the ability to ride a hot streak on offense. Fields coming off the bench is an attractive option because the attributes that he brings to the game (energy and rebounding) are well suited to short bursts more than extended play.


Have a better plan for when Carmelo is doubled

            I would say after his 42 point masterpiece in Game 2, it’s safe to assume that whoever does draw the assignment of guarding Anthony will receive some extra assistance. When Doc Rivers finally started employing that strategy in the 4^th quarter, the Knicks offense broke down almost completely, and it ultimately resulted in the game resting in Jared Jeffries offensively challenged hands twice. This cannot happen again. 

            Jeffries panicked on the last play and didn’t see a wide open Douglas in the corner, and on the previous possession when Mason got the ball on the wing with 9 seconds left on the shot clock, nobody moved and Mason had to take a contested three that Jeffries was fortunate to rebound. Knowing D’Antoni, the offensive plan will be better this time around. Roger Mason really only has one value on this team, and it’s as a shooter, Douglas is a shooter and has the capability to create and get to the basket as well. The ball should not be in Jeffries hands in key moments at all costs.


Apply constant pressure to the Celtics on the offensive end

            With the possible exception of Carmelo getting Game 2 hot, The Knicks should never give the Celtics an easy defensive possession. No ill regarded shots early in the shot clock, a limited amount of unforced errors, and crash the offensive boards hard. The Celtics have proved that regardless of what the scoreboard says, they are always in the game, and they need to be treated like that. 

             I’m actually more worried about how the Knicks will react to the crowd than how the Celtics will, because the Knicks have to guard against overconfidence and the danger of quickening their pace to the point that too many absentminded mistakes are made. The Celtics are a model to follow in that they never got too high or too low, they maintain a steady but not breakneck offensive flow throughout the game, and they always look for the best shot every possession instead of wasting a possession on a heat check.


Get it to STAT early

            As a realist, I’m going to go ahead and say that Amar’e Stoudemire is not going to be at 100% during this game. His normally explosive first step will be compromised, and because of this he won’t be able to render Kevin Garnett completely helpless with his offensive versatility…for the entire game. However, at the beginning of the game and possibly just after halftime, whatever lingering effects his back spasms have on him should be negated by a combination of treatments and injections. 

             For the limited time Amar’e will be at his most effective, he needs to make Garnett respect his physical ability. Get by him by any means necessary, and anyone else who gets in his way. After he’s able to establish his ability to get the basket, he should be able to rely on his consistent 15 footer considering Garnett will be forced to respect the notion that Amar’e is one of the few power forwards that he doesn’t have the speed and power to keep up with anymore. STAT might not draw a double team, but he’ll make sure that Garnett won’t be available as a double teamer.

Prediction:

            A lot of people are giving the Knicks this game because of the aura of the Garden, and how close they’ve played the first two games. The only team in these playoffs that will not be fazed by the Garden will be the Boston Celtics. They haven’t lost to the Knicks all year, and they’ve simply been through too many battles to inexplicably lose their cool at the sight of a fully packed MSG, however impressive and imposing it may be. The other point makes more sense to me: The Knicks have played both games down to the wire in Boston, the latter of the two with Carmelo and a cast of backup singers. 

            IF Stoudemire can go, and doesn’t show too many ill effects from his back spasms, I think the Knicks are able to pull this one out if only for the reason that down the stretch, it will be Amar’e catching those passes from Carmelo, and not Jared Jeffries. 10 years ago today the Knicks beat the Raptors 92-85, time to throw an anniversary party.