The second most wonderful time of the year has arrived in college basketball. Conference play is just opening up, and the sound of bubbles inflating and popping is music to any fan’s ears. After a start reminiscent of a broken elevator (3-3 in the first 6 games) Turgeon’s Terps seem to have stabilized by feasting on diet of mid-majors. In the last year of the true ACC – one in which the conference is having trouble finding adequate side attractions for the main events in North Carolina – Maryland is an intriguing possibility.
The last game against Cornell showed that this team has enough talent to pile on a big lead (15-0 run to start the game) and enough inexperience to fritter it away (the second half was an exercise in the “keep-away” offense). Alex Len’s knack for post scoring and unexpected consistency has formed a great pairing with Terrell Stoglin’s mercurial scoring ability. Pe’Shon Howard’s more charitable hand at the point (4.5 APG), has helped the offense average 73 points in the 4 games since his return. And Sean Mosley has been able to settle into his preferred role as 3rd scorer/box score filler.
So, time to get down to business against the 11-4 NC State Wolfpack.
Wolfpack Strengths:
1) No more Sidney Lowe. Seriously, of all the guys I’ve seen coach a college basketball game, Lowe was down at the bottom of the barrel. The Terps haven’t lost a game to NC State since 2005, which was the last time Sidney Lowe wasn’t coaching the team. Coincidence or Unsolved Mystery?
2) Like most young kids, they play well with others. NC State dishes out 17.8 assists per game (7th in NCAA), and is the only team in the ACC to have 5 players averaging 10+ points per game. The team also does a good job of finishing possessions with points, shooting 48% from the field (3rd in ACC).
3) Two extremely talented sophomores. CJ Leslie is a hyper athletic power forward who has scored in double digits in all but one game this year, and blocked three or more shots in 6 games. He’s an above average mid range shooter for his size, and should be a matchup problem for Maryland whose bigs will have trouble keeping up with him.
Lorenzo Brown is a stretched out point guard (6’5” 189) who has flourished at the position in his second year (remind you of anyone?) His 6.7 assists per game are second in the ACC to Kendall Marshall, and have helped pace the formerly scattered Wolfpack offense.
4) One exceptional shooter. Scott Wood’s recent three point cold streak has him down to 47% from beyond the arc from a mark that stood at a mindblowing 54% midway through December. And yet somehow by launching threes, Wood is forsaking the best part of his game. He has not missed one free throw this year in 31 attempts. He is the resident floor stretcher in Raleigh, as Maryland witnessed last year when he went 5-7 from downtown.
Wolfpack Weaknesses:
1) Outside of Wood, this is a team of stonemasons, (31% from three).
2) Despite supreme athleticism at some spots, and the occasional petty theft (3 players averaging 1+ steal per game), NC State plays very uninspired defense (69 ppg, 219th in NCAA), especially on the perimeter where opponents are knocking down threes at a 37.8% rate (305th in NCAA).
How Maryland wins this game:
Although it’s a communist offensive system, the Wolfpack offense hinges heavily on Lorenzo Brown whose 6.7 assists are tops on the team by a wide margin. If the defense can hassle him into some uncharacteristic mistakes (which is a definite possibility with a sophomore point guard, even a talented one), the NC State offense will get very messy very quickly. Pe’Shon Howard is the better defender of the backcourt duo, so I would expect Brown to be his assignment.
Stoglin’s defense always borders on questionable, but he’ll have a unique challenge against the NC State back court, which is not only uniform in scoring (Wood, Williams, and Brown all average 12.5 points), but also in size (all three range from 6’5” to 6’6”). Stoglin is too valuable to hide on the bench in favor of a lengthier lineup, so he’ll need to make up for his lack of size with effort.
Maryland fits the profile of a young team in that they have a lot of trouble with turnovers, so much so that early in the season their assist to turnover ratio was regularly negative. Pe’Shon’s return has stemmed that tide against lesser opponents, but obviously Maryland doesn’t have the top-25 caliber talent or ironclad defense to overcome carelessness. A relatively clean game (less than 10 turnovers) would go a long way towards a win.
As I stated earlier, NC State has been very unsuccessful guarding against the three. One person (god forbid two) sinking a couple of money balls along side Stoglin would help soften the lane for Len’s post moves and Stoglin’s drives. Since Sean Mosley is shooting an acceptable 39% from downtown, and because the game being close is contingent upon him showing up anyways, I’ll peg him as one of the gunners. Nick Faust came out of high school labeled as a shooter, a label which has since been peeled off due to a 20.5% average from three. Just two or three treys from him would spread the Wolfpack defense like jelly.
So to recap:
2) Conversely, make smart passes on the offensive end, and keep the turnover numbers in single digits.
3) Sean Mosley, whose production flickers like a broken light bulb, needs to be firmly switched on. At least 15 points from the senior leader of this team.
4) Keep the NC State defense honest by knocking down some three’s on a defense that almost begs you to.
My prediction:
Being a Maryland fan, I obviously want the team to win this game. But, I just don’t see them pulling this one out on the road against a team that rebounds well, scores evenly and efficiently, and has a deadeye three point shooter capable of stretching the floor for their athletes. NC State 82 Maryland 71.
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