Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Fred Wilpon is trying to kill the Mets fan base


This has been an all-time "don't watch Sportscenter" week for me. The Jets were a complete mess from start to finish in their biggest game of the season. The NBA is about as relevant as the ABA at this point. But bar none the most frustrating thing is that the Mets are in the midst of losing the best player they’ve had in 25 years for essentially nothing. No prospects in return, no high round compensatory draft picks: nothing.
The Mets had a full season to decide what to do with Reyes. Although there were clearly several offshoots involving, there were two schools of thought on how to deal with the Reyes situation: keep him around and hope he has enough of a connection to the team to resign at a discount, or use his astronomical trade value to fatten up a thin minor league system.
At the beginning of the year, I wrote that I favored the latter. I don’t think anybody was delusional enough to think that a team with a rotation anchored by Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey was one capable of making a playoff run. With the right trading partner, the Mets would have been able to name AT LEAST one A-list prospect, and maybe two or three more high level players. It would have closed the book on an exciting but underperforming era of Mets baseball, and addressed the primary long term need that every team has: developing the minor league system. 
The other option that appealed to more sentimental fans was to wait the season out, and break the less than considerable bank for Reyes. There were a lot of flaws to this plan. Outside of financial constraints, Reyes’ stock tanked due to leg injuries in the second half. By the end of the season, he was considered more of a risky high-end investment than a franchise player. However, Reyes connects to Mets fans in a way that no player I've ever seen has. He's an exciting, charismatic homegrown superstar, which is just the type of player that develops loyalty in a fan base. 
Obviously, the Mets appeared to take the second route. But as the weeks passed by after the season ended, and meetings transgressed between Reyes’ people and the Mets, there were no whispers of a concrete offer. Instead, the team frittered away their time to try and convince Reyes to return to a place that he admittedly loves, and let other suitors get involved.
What really gets me though is the lack of any sort of plan. I have been a fan of a team with inept ownership, but I never doubted that they cared about winning. James Dolan has made some indefensibly awful decisions as the owner of the Knicks. In hindsight, signing Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph looks preposterous, but Isaiah Thomas explained that the team was trying to get bigger when everyone else was getting smaller. Did it work? No. But although the results were poor, the idea to improve was there.
So let me put a question to any Mets fan or baseball fan reading this: how does this process with Reyes show that the Mets care about getting better? They aren’t looking short term (signing free agents) or long term (trading Reyes and Wright and starting over). The Mets are no longer a team to the Wilpons, they are an asset, and one that the owners apparently have no intention of improving.
Jose Reyes represented the best chance this team had to improve, whether he was playing for them or traded somewhere else. And they did nothing with him. They’re not getting exciting prospects in return for him. They’re not getting his contract off the books so they can position themselves for a run at a free agent pitcher. They are simply slashing payroll because the owners are hemorrhaging money.
Maybe all of the Miami talk is just posturing, and Sandy Alderson is playing his cards inside his vest. But if the Mets lose Reyes for nothing, it is a slap in the face to a proud fan base that has sat through two of the most brutal collapses I’ve been witness to in any sport. It will say that until the Wilpons have cleared their desks out, there is no point in rooting for this team, because the Wilpons aren’t interested in giving you something to root for. 

Friday, November 11, 2011

#3 - Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels



Why It’s this High:

The epicenter of college basketball shifts along Tobacco Road from Durham to Chapel Hill. As opposed to just about every rivalry I've listed so far, this one is the unquestioned alpha dog in its sport. No rational person can argue against North Carolina-Duke, a long running rivalry between two power programs that have really upped it to another level since the dawn of the millennium. Collectively, they have owned one of the most talented conferences in the country.
Duke holds a 14-9 edge since 2001, and an even slimmer 9-8 advantage since the hire of Roy Williams in 2003. Each team has won 2 national championships within the past 10 years, and they have respectively dominated the ACC regular season (UNC has finished with the conference’s best record 6 of the past 10 years) and postseason (Duke has won the conference tournament an astounding 8 times in 10 years). 
What makes college basketball rivalries the most unique is that for the most part, they remain unchanged for years because of the coaches. Every coach in the country has a style that they prefer to run. Jim Calhoun USUALLY likes to play an extremely physical style of basketball, with an anchor in the paint on defense (Okafor, Thabeet, Adrien) and a shooter on the wing (Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton, Denham Brown). Calipari's dribble drive offense eschews pinpoint shooting for over the top athleticism, and routinely draws in top point guards. Just like those two coaches, Williams and Krzyzewski have been successful enough to have their pick of high school seniors, and tailor their selections to their respective coaching styles. 
It’s no secret that Roy likes to run and that his first priority is lighting up the scoreboard (from 2003 to 2009, the Tar Heels ranked an average of 4th in scoring offense), so he populates the team accordingly. It’s usually a safe bet to assume that the Tar Heels will be lead by a grease fire fast point guard (Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson), some hyper athletic bigs (Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, John Henson), and the occasional dead-eye shooter to spread the floor (Wayne Ellington, Rashad McCants). UNC always seems to be a step ahead on the recruiting trail, probably because Williams’ style is more fun to play. But he puts a lot of trust in the instincts of his players, so when those instincts are poor, the results can be disastrous (2009-2010).
If you’ve watched Duke in past 20 years, you know that their success comes from their ability to out-execute other teams to death in half court sets (last year’s UNC game in the ACC tournament is a textbook example). The system Coach K runs doesn’t require the most athletic players (the national championship back court was John Scheyer and Nolan Smith). But recruits need not visit Duke if they can’t sink open threes, or are careless with the ball. In a day in age where kids are negotiating shoe contracts before they can tie their own laces, Coach K holds in high regard the ability to correctly take a charge. People who want to see exciting basketball hate watching Duke play, but basketball purists marvel at the machine that’s put together every year.  
Occasionally, each of them has rebuilt their system around one player (Roy slowed his frenetic pace down for Hansbrough, and Krzyzewski sped his up for Jay Williams), but usually the games are about whether the Blue Devils perfectly coached precision can trump the Tar Heels’ supreme athleticism, and that dichotomy of styles has resulted in some memorable battles.  
Of the 23 games they’ve played, I’m sure fans of either team can rattle off a few of their favorites/nightmares: Duhon’s game winner in overtime, Duke’s defensive stand in 2005, Carolina’s furious comeback later in that same year, and UNC’s back to back wins at Cameron when both teams were ranked in the top 5. I can literally sit here all day and talk about all of the games played between the two teams (especially since the Williams hire), because almost all of them were played between highly ranked teams in front of raucous partisan crowds, and 13 of them were decided by 10 points or less.   
And what’s great is, this year should be more of the same, in fact it might be better. North Carolina starts the year with an NBA-ready front court of Zeller and Henson, and the most talented player in the country in Harrison Barnes. Duke again has a bevy of shooters with Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, and the mirror-shattering Ryan Kelly at the 3, but they also have a wild card with the explosive Austin Rivers. UNC is the consensus #1 in the country, while people are already saying that the Blue Devils are overrated at #6. Regardless, both of these teams will be in the national title hunt at the end of the year, and the two games that they’re guaranteed to play will just add to the storied history that they already have.  

Why it's not higher:

The postseason series is slanted heavily towards Duke. The Blue Devils have played UNC three times in the ACC tournament, winning all three by an average of 13 points. And most importantly, they haven’t met in a national postseason tournament since the 1971 NIT. Granted, it would take a mutual Final Four for the teams to match up with eachother on most occasions, but considering the success both teams have had, it’s surprising and disappointing.
For all of the things at stake in the games these two teams play (the ACC Championship, national ranking, bragging rights), there hasn’t been a win or go home scenario between the two in a long time. The games still definitely mean something, but there is always a game afterwards for both teams. Maybe the two teams are good enough this year that they do end up meeting in March, but until then it doesn’t make sense to me to put this in front of the next two rivalries on my list.  

Sunday, November 6, 2011

#4 - Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers




Why it’s ranked this high:

Hate. There are plenty of other reasons that I’ll mention later, but after putting a lot of thought into it, I can’t think of two fan bases that share a mutual disdain like Alabama and Auburn do. Duke and North Carolina fans can commiserate over some very average Carolina professional teams. I’m willing to bet that there are more than a few Oklahoma fans who share common ground with Texas fans over the Dallas Cowboys and possibly the Texas Rangers. In Alabama there are no professional sports teams, which is probably good, because I don’t think anyone would really care. Down in Alabama, New Years Day is at the end of November.
But just because two very talented teams are natural rivals, it doesn’t guarantee an epic ten year stretch of games. The Celtics and the Lakers played two NBA Finals worth of games against each other, but there were no exceptional games, and plenty of bad ones. The 45-3 game last year is one of the rotten apples in the bunch of games that the Pats and the Jets have played recently. Fortunately, blowouts have been an uncommon occurrence in the Iron Bowl’s recent history (8/10 games decided by 10 points or less), and the previous two games fit better in a movie script than a box score.  
2009’s “throw out the record”-type of game saw #2 Alabama get their stiffest test of the season from an unranked Auburn team. After winning their first 7 SEC games by an average of 17 points, the Iron Bowl pushed Alabama’s undefeated season to the very limit, with Auburn holding the lead until a 79-yard drive gave Bama their first lead with 1:24 left in the 4th quarter. Even after losing 4 of their previous 6 games leading up to it, the Iron Bowl brought out the best in a very average Auburn team.
Last year, both teams were at their best, with Auburn taking on the role of undefeated road team heading into Tuscaloosa. Alabama came out and swinging and knocked the Tigers on their asses with three touchdowns in the first 15 minutes. But the Cam Newton show was simply delayed. Even with the Tide holding major advantages in 1st downs (23-18) and total yards (446-324), Newton eviscerated the Alabama defense. He not only stemmed the Tide, but rolled over them himself to the tune of four total touchdowns, including the game winner to Philip Lutzenkirchen early in the 4th. Two years, two uniquely entertaining games both with 4th quarter lead changes, between two of the premiere teams in the country. Add the storied tradition of the Iron Bowl in, and those games make the jump to legendary status among fans of each team.  
Michigan and Ohio State may be the media darling of college football, but then again it’s difficult to glorify ecological terrorism like poisoning all the trees in Auburn’s grove. Not to mention, “the Rivalry” hasn’t been relevant on the national stage recently, and it doesn’t appear either team will be for quite a while. On the other hand, Auburn and Alabama are about as relevant as you can get by those standards.
Since 2001, there have been only 12 undefeated seasons in college football. Alabama and Auburn have accounted for three of those, the only three that the SEC has had in that time span. With the SEC being far and away the best conference in college football, that means that despite a flawed BCS system, there were three years in which Auburn and Alabama were unquestionably the best team in the country because of the gauntlet they had to run to achieve perfection.
And as much as I do like the novelty of a neutral field in the Red River Rivalry, it just doesn’t have the same intensity as a series that switches between Auburn and Tuscaloosa every year. The Rammer Jammer cheer (a glorified version of Gary Glitter), from a crowd of thousands of students is awesome to hear. I can’t imagine a more difficult road environment than what the visitors face every year in the Iron Bowl.  

Why It’s Not Higher:

            Because while 9 win seasons have been like clockwork for Auburn since 2001, they have been significantly more elusive for their in-state rivals. From 2003-2007 (aka the Mike Shula era plus Nick Saban’s first year), Alabama won only three more games than they lost (33-30). Although the games during those years were still hotly contested (decided by an average of 7.4 points), Auburn still won all 5 of them. There was still regional pride on the line for the winner of the games, but Bama’s mediocrity ensured that was all that was at stake.
            I think the only other real major issue preventing this rivalry from being in the top 3 is that while Auburn and Alabama are both national title contenders, they may not be the best team in their division, a distinction that belongs to the LSU Tigers. Between the three teams, LSU has averaged 10.6 wins a year since 2002, while Auburn has averaged 9.6, and Alabama has averaged 8.8. Alabama-based teams have won the last two national championships, but LSU has captured two in the last ten years with a very plausible third well within reach this season. It’s nitpicking at this point, but it’s a flaw that the top 3 rivalries don’t share.
            Regardless, college football is a sport full of the most passionate and intense fan bases in the country. It’s the only major American sport where trophies change hands during regular season games. But despite plenty of heated rivalries throughout the country, no weekend carries more weight than the last Saturday in November in Alabama. 

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Cam Newton could reshape the QB position


In sports, I’ve always been a sucker for when the going is good, it’s going to get better. In the middle of John Maine's scoreless streak a few years back, I believed he was going to be the anchor of the Mets rotation. I am convinced that Aaron Maybin has turned a figurative corner like he continues to turn actual ones, and that Toney Douglas can eventually be the premiere point guard on a basketball team. Which is why I may be jumping in front of this train instead of on it; but as of right now, I legitimately think it’s just a matter of two or three years until Cam Newton is the most dominant player in the NFL.
In the first 8 weeks of this NFL season, Newton has shown that all of his otherworldly athletic gifts translate directly to the pros with no exchange rate. He has the arm to make almost any throw on the field, the legs to run away from people, and the strength to run at them. With Manning and Brady, you marvel at their accuracy, and with Vick you marvel at his raw talent. But Cam Newton has the ability to dominate every phase of the game he chooses like no quarterback ever has.
What I didn't like about Newton coming out of college was that you really couldn't find anyone to compare him to. In many ways, the NFL is a think "outside the box" league in terms of personnel (look at how tight ends have gotten smaller and faster, starting with Tony Gonzalez).
But not with quarterbacks, where the idea of a dual threat QB has failed over and over again. Vince Young? Not enough arm strength, even worse accuracy. Michael Vick? More than enough arm strength, but not big enough to absorb getting T-boned by a linebacker. And it goes back further: Andre Ware, Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, the list goes on and on. While they bring certain unique skills to the table, they lack other very necessary ones to be successful in the NFL.
But what it looks like with Newton is a Hakeem Olajuwon type of situation. Olajuwon's skillset for a center was something that was completely unique. There hasn't been anyone else that large with his foot work, or quick hands (ball handling and steals). Just like there hasn't been an athlete the size and speed of Cam Newton able to not only chuck the ball downfield, but capable of grasping a complex offense and thriving in it (61% completion rate through his first 8 games). 
From what I've seen so far, the most accurate description of him is a cross of Donavan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger. He's Roethlisberger's height - but about ten pounds bigger - and with a slightly lower completion percentage in his rookie season. But, he already has more rushing yards through 8 weeks (319) than Roethlisberger has ever had in a season. Which would then make Newton more like McNabb, who routinely averaged 5 yards per carry during a season, and who could at times take over a game on the ground or in the air.
 But McNabb didn't have a 60% passing season until his 5th year in the league, and more importantly, was constantly criticized for his inability to show up in the big moment. For all of the physical talent that McNabb had, he was missing the most important component: he never had the mental part completely down, and was prone to doubting himself and coming apart at the seams at the worst possible times. In short, he was soft.
 By all indications, Newton is not built that way. If anything, he was so overconfident in the pre-draft process that it was mistaken for extreme narcissism. What NFL scouts wanted to hear is how much he knew he'd need to adjust how his style of play from college the NFL. What they got was a kid talking about how he wanted to be an icon before he even broke a huddle.
After torching the SEC (the equivalent of a league between D1 college football and the NFL) he's still the same size or larger than most linebackers, and faster than practically all of them. DeAngelo Hall admitted last week what I already assumed: defensive backs don't know how to tackle him, and don't really want to figure it out. With most quarterbacks, there’s always a tool missing, even if it’s not apparent. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are sitting ducks when the pocket breaks down. Michael Vick is dynamic, just like Steve Young was, but bounces around like a pinball when he’s hit. Cam Newton has all the tools in the toolbox, and then a few more just for show.
 What Newton is, is a completely mold breaking athlete comparable to LeBron or early 90’s Mike Tyson. He's hard to tackle and confident like Roethlisberger, with McNabb's foot speed, and Bo Jackson on the goal line (3rd in the NFL with 7 rushing TDs). He’s Daunte Culpepper with actual work ethic, a clean bill of health, and experience in big games. If he pans out, you will see 10 more Drew Brees’ before you see another Cam Newton. If the Panthers surround him with a decent team, they’ll win divisions. If they surround him with a good team, they’ll win Super Bowl’s, and there’s not a doubt in my mind about it.