Maryland plays Duke tonight, and they're going to win (Maryland vs. Duke Preview)

There is no other day that I miss being in College Park more than tonight. If you went to Maryland to watch some great college basketball games, there’s always one day you circle on your calendar. The Duke game is not a day, it’s a week. A week where all of your classes seem just a little longer, where anything blue just seems to irk you, and you wait a few hours in line outside Comcast waiting for the best seats you can get.

I bookended my college experience with a freshman year sweep of Duke, and a senior year win in Comcast for the ACC title. That last game was the best live sporting event I’ve ever been to, and I don’t think there will ever be another game that will match the manic atmosphere inside of Comcast that night. This is college basketball at its best, in one of the best home arenas in all of the sports. This is Maryland and Duke, and this is my preview.

What makes Duke not Terrible:

Contrary to the title of this section, I’m not a Duke hater. I think Coach K is the best coach to ever set foot on a college basketball court (the only two others in his category are Knight and Wooden. He has more wins than Knight, and Wooden had something of a talent monopoly at UCLA). As long as Mike Krzyzewski is at Duke, that team will never miss the tournament, and they will never be poorly coached. I thought Gary was one of a handful of people in the country capable of matching wits with Coach K for 40 minutes. Until I see how Mark Turgeon handles Duke’s adjustments throughout the game, I have to give a major coaching advantage to Duke.

The sun rises in the east, Derek Jeter sleeps with models, and Duke shoots a lot of threes. All of these are universal truths that will continue for at least the next 20 years (sorry 2012 conspiracy theorists). What’s most surprising is that with the cavalcade of shooters Duke has had in the past 10 years (JJ Redick, Jon Scheyer, and Greg Paulus all come to mind) not one Duke team has shot better than 40% from three as a team. With all of that said, this year Duke is currently on pace to eclipse that mark (40.9%, 7^th in NCAA). Andre Dawkins, Austin Rivers, and Ryan Kelly are all shooting higher than 40% from deep, and that means that Duke is capable of mini-runs that can quickly eliminate a deficit or conjure a lead out of nowhere.

Speaking of Rivers, he’s the most dynamic Blue Devil since Jay Williams, and after some early hitches, it unfortunately looks like he’s settling in as a dominating force at the 2-guard position (19.5 pts, 56% 3 pt last 2 games). He tends to be a black hole of sorts (3+ assists in 1 game this year), but considering how talented of a playmaker he is, it’s ultimately forgivable. It will be interesting to see if Maryland does have a single player that can stay in front of him.

Why Maryland can win this game (and I think they will)

            This is a very different Blue Devil team than the Terps are used to seeing. For the first time in a long time (not counting last year, because Kyrie Irving was out for 90% of it) the best player on the team by a mile is a freshman. The senior leadership that has characterized Coach K teams for the past 5 or 10 years is not there right now, and where that usually manifests itself is in difficult road environments. On the road in Atlanta, Georgia Tech was within one possession until the final minute of the game. In Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson cut a 9 point lead to 4 in a matter of minute late in the second half. Getting to the point, Duke has had trouble against bottom tier ACC teams on the road, Maryland is not in that bottom tier, which makes me think this game will be closer.

            Duke’s 3 point shooting, while admittedly impressive, hasn’t traveled well. Rivers was 0/5 from 3 in Duke’s 2 ACC road games, and Seth Curry has been frigid from the land of plenty as of late (25% from 3pt in last 6 games).

            This is a weak defensive team, especially at the guard positions. Of any team that Terrell Stoglin has faced this year, this is the one that he should be licking his chops over the most. Duke allows 69.2 points per game (227^th NCAA), and ranks dead last in the ACC in opponents’ field goal percentage (44.1%). There will be a lot more open shots against this team than there were against Florida State or Temple, it’s just going to be a matter of making them.

            This will be the first ACC game (besides Wake Forest) where Maryland should be favored to win the battle on the boards. Duke has one elite rebounder, Mason Plumlee (9.3 RPG), and two average ones in his older brother Miles (6.4 RPG) and Ryan Kelly (5.3 RPG). Other than those three, no other player averages more than 2 boards per game. A healthy Len (who fits more here against Duke’s half court heavy offense) along with Padgett and Pankey should be enough to give Maryland the edge on the glass and limit second shot opportunities for the Blue Devils.

            How the Terps Pull This Off:

I’m not a Dick Vitale fan, but when I was watching highlights from the 2004 ACC Championship yesterday, Vitale made a comment about Duke that I thought was spot on. He said the #1 rule against them is “thou shalt not help”, as in help defense can actually hurt when you’re playing Duke. Against Coach K’s drive and kick three heavy offense, this couldn’t be more true. If Austin Rivers gets by going to hoop, make sure the defense doesn’t collapse to try and stop the penetration, because he will kick out to an open shooter. 2 points is always better than 3, and Maryland needs to live by Vitale’s mantra.

Weather the storm from 3. At some point during this game (probably several points) Duke is going to hit back to back threes, or their offense will start clicking on a nice run. DO NOT panic. Maryland needs to remain calm when Duke inevitably starts hitting some big shots, and make sure they’re still getting good looks on offense instead of rushing back down the court for some sort of ill-advised quick retribution.

Contrarily, when Duke does miss shots and the Terps get the rebound, it’s time to run. This is not a very athletic team especially if both of the Plumlees and Kelly are on the floor at the same time. Temple beat this team by grabbing rebounds, and absolutely demolishing the Blue Devils transition defense with quick outlet passes and easy baskets. The blueprint is definitely there for Maryland to follow.

The Terps will need to score to win this game, and not just Stoglin but at least two other people. My money is on Sean Mosley, who seems to excel when he’s not athletically overmatched at the three, and James Padgett who should have a nice night on the boards along with a few fine moments in the post.

My Prediction:

Maryland needs to win this game to even remain in the peripheral conversation for the NCAA tournament. I don’t think they have anywhere near the number of advantages against Carolina that they do against Duke. This is the last chance on the schedule for them to really get a premiere schedule-defining win, and I think they do. I think the guards on Duke will be intimidated by the atmosphere at the Comcast Center, and the only players that could really ruin the night would be seasoned Comcast veterans Mason Plumlee and Andre Dawkins. The game is close at halftime, Maryland comes out with an early 2^nd half run reminiscent of the Gary Williams era, and Duke is never able to put together a sustained run of their own long enough to get back into the lead.

Maryland 74 Duke 71  

Let's make some changes: Terps Edition

In my experience, there are two types of underperforming sports teams to root for, and I have the distinct pleasure of having a basketball team in each camp right now. The Maryland Terrapins basketball team is the kind of underperforming that’s ultimately forgivable. They kind of remind me of every round of golf I’ve ever played. Every once in a while, for a streak of 2 or 3 holes, I look like an actual golfer. My drives are straight, my irons are smooth, and when I chip it doesn’t look like I’m trying to butcher a live cat. Things are good.

And then, just as quickly as that blissful oasis appeared, everything crashes back down to earth. My drives develop a wanderlust, my irons go from smooth to chunky, and you couldn’t identify the aforementioned cat by its dental records. But ultimately, I don’t really get that upset about it, and why? Because I know I’m not good enough to adequately correct my mistakes mid-round.

Maryland has the very same issue. In the first halves of the Cornell game and the Wake Forest game, they played some beautifully cohesive basketball. The ball moved effectively, Stoglin looked like he was playing pop a shot, and Alex Len’s strengths shone brightly. All was right with the world.

But the issue with that “zone" is the same as the one I encounter during golf. They don’t find the zone, they stumble into it. And because they don’t know how they got there, once the slightest thing goes awry, they fight to try to figure out how the hell they found it in the first place. Forced shots and turnovers ensue en masse.

The Terps are more than likely not a tournament team this year, but it won’t be because of lack of talent. Any time you have the leading scorer in the conference, there’s always a chance that UNC or Duke have their Buster Douglas moment against Stoglin and company. I am going to suggest three things that Maryland can do to make their swings less violent, and their good play more sustained.

I Wanna Be Like Mych:

There haven’t been a lot of positives about Maryland’s play the last five games, but one that has really jumped out at me has been the play of Mychal Parker. I don’t think there’s a more athletic player on the team, and after spending last year in the best seat in the house, it finally looks like the game is slowing down for him. His jump shot looks cleaner, he’s fighting hard for rebounds, and his drives to the basket result in a blocking foul or points more often than not. All of these factors add up to him needing more minutes.

Clearly these won’t come at the expense of Mosley, the senior leader who -despite recently underperforming - is the anchor for this team on the floor. So it’s time for Maryland to make the Parker for Faust switch. This is no reason to give up on Faust completely. He’s just one of the many 18 year olds who can’t seamlessly adjust to college ball as a freshman.

Right now, he looks tentative and jittery with the ball, his assists are just as common as his turnovers, and his jump shot is an explosion of limbs with the accuracy of a shotgun blast (32% FG, 19% 3pt). Turgeon needs to limit his playing time in favor of a steadier hand.

A lot of people gave up on Mychal Parker after last year. As Maryland’s top recruit, he barely played (6 MPG), and when he did get in Gary had a quick hook for his constant mental errors. He’s now getting 19 minutes a game to Faust’s 26 even though he’s been a better shooter, rebounder, and defender for this entire season. In the last two games he’s outscored Sean Mosley despite playing 24 less minutes. At this juncture, we know what Mosley is (an undersized forward with a great motor and schizophrenic scoring), and we know what Faust isn’t (an ACC caliber starter). Parker’s play merits more minutes, and I personally want to know whether he’s the next Sean Mosley or the next Landon Milbourne.

James is hungry:

Feed him. Last year, I never thought I would say these words, but James Padgett needs the ball more. Alex Len may have a lot more raw talent, but Padgett is stronger with the ball, and has a wider array of post moves (another sentence I thought I’d never say).

Right now there’s an opening for the second scorer behind Terrell Stoglin, and I think the strongest argument is for Padgett. He’s far and away Maryland’s most efficient scorer (51.3%), and after a rough start from the line, he’s rounded into form since the start of ACC play (73% FT’s in last 5 games). Half the time the guy doesn’t even need to set himself up, he leads the ACC in offensive rebounds per game (4.0). Not to mention the benefits that an effective post presence yields for the whole offense: higher percentage shots, and better looks for outside shooters.

He may not be Jordan Williams on the block, but with Howard, Faust, and Mosley erratic at best and irrelevant at worst, Padgett would provide a steady presence to counterbalance Stoglin’s mercurial ability. For a team that serves up turnovers like a Dutch bakery, simplifying the offense with more post entry passes couldn’t hurt either. Maryland is 9-1 when Padgett scores double digits this year, and 3-0 when he takes 10+ shots, it’s time to test whether those numbers hold true against some stiffer competition.

Stop forcefeeding me Alex Len:

Not just for my sake but for his. A lot of people (myself included) thought that after his first few out of conference games, Len would be the player to make the Terps bubble relevant. He’s not. Not right now anyways.

It’s easy to be seduced by the package that Len offers. He’s a true 7-footer with a nice shooting touch and surprising athleticism. But behind that shiny packaging, the necessary parts just aren’t there right now. When he puts the ball on the floor (which he shouldn’t be doing as much in the first place) it looks like he’s dribbling with oven mitts.

Because he doesn’t box out well, he’s routinely beaten for rebounds by guys who can’t reach his nose. And he’s just not in shape to play 30 minutes a game of up-tempo ACC basketball yet. He’s always the last one back down the court on transition defense, and when the opponent has a mobile big man (Bernard James comes to mind) he ends up picking up bad fouls trying to cover for his mistakes.

I don’t know whose fault it is that he gets the ball on the perimeter so often, but nothing good can come of that. The kid looks like a victim from ‘Saw’ deciding what to do with the live grenade in his hands. Whoever is culpable for it, there’s really only one way to solve the issue at hand. Play Alex Len less until he’s in better shape – physically and mentally – to handle the demands of the college game.

Faust had to make the transition from apples to oranges, and he’s struggling. Just imagine what this 18 year-old Ukranian kid is going through trying to acclimate to ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING IN AMERICA. The only way Maryland can screw up a kid this gifted is by forcing him to be the savior when he’s the one that needs some saving right now.

So there are my solutions. I’d want to see a starting lineup of Stoglin, Howard, Mosley, Padgett, and Pankey. Use Len as a “super sub” of sorts off the bench, and if he’s gumming up the defense on the break, give him a breather to collect himself. Parker should be the first off the bench for either Howard or Mosley, and Turgeon should test the limits of where diminishing returns start with him. I think Howard is finally starting to get his touch back after returning from knee surgery (7/12, 15 points vs. Temple), but his eyes still have a way to go (1.9 A/T ratio).

Next up is one of the two biggest games of the year (UNC on February 4^th is the other), and I think the more winnable one. Duke has some legitimate weaknesses (questionable defense especially from the guards, and only one elite rebounder). Just like the rest of the games this year, Maryland CAN win, they just need to relax and let the cat be.  

  

Winning Ugly: The Jon Kreft Story (Maryland @ FSU recap)

About 2/3 of this game was really fun to watch. Then Maryland threw in a solid 8 minutes of terrible basketball, and then it went back to watchable. Unfortunately, during those 8 minutes, FSU went on a 21-3 run, which shut the door on any chance of a MD win. Time for the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

The Good:

Terrell Stoglin has a company parking spot here for the season, and this game pretty much solidified it. Stoglin’s ability to put the ball in the hole all season has never been in question, but the combination of FSU’s defense and Maryland’s lack of scoring options (pretty much just #12) posed a threat to his offensive dominance.

            Well, in the first half of this game, Stoglin put the vaunted FSU defense to shame by scoring from all over the floor. Eventually he did go cold in the second half, but not before dropping 27 and showing that there isn’t a team in this conference that can guard him when he’s on his game. A few more assists like the shiny dime underneath to Berend Weijs for any easy dunk would be great to see, but Stoglin is a scorer first by choice and necessity.

Another good unheralded game from Mychal Parker, who had 4 points and 4 rebounds at halftime, and finished with 6 and 7. The Seminole defense effectively took away anyone who couldn’t beat their man off the dribble, and Parker was one of the few players on the floor capable of doing that.

His 7 rebounds were even more impressive in my opinion due to the lack of size Maryland had on the floor against Florida State’s XL front line. Parker knocked down both of his free throws, and even though his bad pass to Alex Len was one in the long string of Terps 2^nd half turnovers, overall he had a very nice game.

That sound you heard was a blip on Nick Faust’s EKG. Even though it came very late in the game after he started 0/3, Faust finally aired a teaser trailer and it showed why Maryland fans had such high hopes for him. The step back jumper that he drained from the left wing showed a swagger he’s been lacking all season. He also drew some fouls on his way to the basket, and was a part of an active and effective Maryland defense in the first half.

Faust may not be a 12 point a game player this year, but seeing him finally look confident in the flow of the game was a sight for sore eyes. Up until last night, I was lobbying for Faust’s seat on the bench, and although I’m still not high on him this year, I can now finally see why he inspired so much hope as a prep player.

The Bad:

            A while ago, I really thought Maryland would be able to outsource a bulk of their scoring to the Ukraine. The past three games have made it apparent that a lot of scoring - probably too much - will rest with Sean Mosley. Occasionally Mosley looks like a legitimate second scorer. He’s underrated at finishing around the basket, an average three point shooter, and has become a legitimate threat at the free throw line. Then he’ll have a game where you wonder if he even played. Last night was one of the latter.  

            A late 3 pointer was the only time Mosley’s name came up during the game. Other than that, FSU completely bottled him up, and he was never able to shake his defender whether he had the ball or not. Everyone knows that Mosley has never been the most athletic guy on the floor, which made it extra difficult for him to get free for a look. But he appeared defeated later in the game, dribbling once or twice and then immediately looking to shovel the ball to someone else. Plenty of teams in the ACC play good defense, and Mosley will need to find a way to get himself involved against the Virginia’s of the world. Run off screens, work the boards and draw fouls, just figure out a way to take more shots and have more of an impact.

            The forwards getting into foul trouble in the first half. Fair warning, I started watching this game with 10:00 left in the first half, and didn’t see Alex Len or James Padgett until after halftime. The fact that Maryland was able to only be -1 in rebounding at the break was an amazing feat considering their interior presence consisted of Berend “the Scarecrow” Weijs and 6’5” Mychal Parker.

The Ugly:

            Ugly is precisely the word for that 21-3 run. FSU’s defense switched back on, causing back to back to back turnovers, and they never looked back. Maryland looked completely lost on offense, with Pe’Shon Howard picking up a terrible charging call by bulling down the lane, and Sean Mosley trying an ill advised turnaround jumper which was blocked. Stoglin started pulling up too early in the shot clock (even for him), and since the team wasn’t settled, it lead to back to back uncontested Devidias Dulkys threes.

            These lapses have become an unfortunately consistent part of Maryland basketball this year. It happened in the other road loss to NC State, and even at Comcast against Wake where Maryland was able to pull up just quick enough to keep from crashing. Just one miscue can trigger a chain reaction, and because Maryland is such a young team, they don’t know how to deal with even the slightest bit of failure without complete panic. After they played inspired defense throughout the first half, Maryland bit on every pump fake, and allowed an average FSU offense to work to their strength (the free throw line).

            Up until they took a 1 point lead, the Terps looked like a team that could at least compete with any in the conference. The next 7 minutes showed that no lead they have will ever be safe because of their major fluctuations in offensive continuity.

            I still think Alex Len can be good, but last night was ugly for him to. I don’t know if it’s Mark Turgeon misusing him, or Len just going to the wrong spots on the floor, but seeing him beyond the 3 point line with a ball in his hands is like watching a dog at the vet. Jumpy, erratic, and completely uncomfortable with the situation he’s been put in.

            The two early fouls didn’t help, he never established his presence on the inside, and instead looked totally out of sorts besides a nice running hook shot  in the second half. The most worrisome part is this: Alex Len will have to be a reason that Maryland wins games this year. If this team is going to steal a few games from better teams, he can’t be an ancillary part, and last night he wasn’t even that. He was a complete liability on both ends of the court, and his lack of experience was completely exposed.

Credit where credit is due, Florida State certainly looked like a top tier ACC team. They may never develop into a consistent offensive force, but their man to man defense was the best I’ve seen this season. And what impressed me the most was their poise when things went south. When Maryland was making their charge in the second half, and Terrell Stoglin was incinerating their defense, the Seminoles never looked out of sorts. Instead, they weathered the storm by always answering the Terps with a bucket, and then efficiently pulled away from an inferior team. For Mark Turgeon and his players, this game should give them a belief that they can play with anyone, but they won't get any results until they determine why they can't prevent bad from going to worse.

A full slate of NFL games, A full on phobia of bees, and too many full cases of Bud Light (Maryland @ Florida State Preview)

Three legitimate reasons why I didn’t find my way around a keyboard this weekend to air my thoughts on Georgia Tech. For the record, I didn’t think Maryland would have any major difficulties with the yellow jackets, and judging by my sporadic gamecast checking, I was correct in that assumption. At 12-4 (2-1), Maryland has picked up the two conference wins that arrive at the door of every ACC team in a gift basket, and now move on to some tougher opponents.

Tonight, they’ll look to pick up a big road win against a Florida State team that just smacked around Roy Williams at home. Gary could’ve stumbled into Tallahassee with a middle of the pack CYO team and a blood alcohol content matching their assist to turnover ratio, and he STILL wouldn’t have lost by 33. This season of the Seminoles looks the same in your program, with the notable absence of Chris Singleton who left the show for more money. Let’s take a walk down the trail of tears.

Trouble in Tallahassee…

When you get outside the state of North Carolina, there aren’t a lot of superlatives thrown around the ACC, but Florida State is definitely deserving of this one: best man to man defense in college basketball. KenPom has the Seminoles ranked as the 4^th best adjusted defense in the NCAA this year, after ranking them the best in 2010 and 2011. Hamilton has made it a priority to recruit defense, and then coach it to perfection. Michael Snaer and Deividas Dulkys are two of the best defensive guards in the ACC, and Xavier Gibson and Bernard James each block more than a shot and half a game inside. To sum this up, there isn’t a defensive metric you can find where Florida State isn’t near the top of the list. Alabama’s defense was great and froze the Terps at 42 points earlier this season. FSU has the talent to turn that thermostat even lower.

This is a team that has underperformed its high preseason expectations. A lot of upperclassmen mixed with ironclad man-to-man defense is usually a recipe for success, and the Carolina game may have been just what the Noles need to get cooking. The shooting may not be repeatable, but the effort on the boards (they outrebounded the usually dominant Tar Heels 43-35) certainly is, especially against a smaller, less-talented Maryland team. Tonight's game should prove whether Florida State will live up to their "top 3 in the ACC" preseason billing, or whether they'll spend 2012 as an undercard.

FSU's Donald L. Tucker Center is the most underrated home court advantage in the ACC, and has an argument as the most underrated in the country.The sight of a garnet and gold mob leading Sportscenter becomes less and less jarring every year that Florida State knocks off a top 5 team. Historically, Maryland has fared well against the Noles, but they are an all-together different animal at home with the crowd noise supplementing their dominating defense. It would downright shock me to see Maryland score upwards of 75 points in this game, and I’m expecting below 70.

…But only on one side of the ball:

Florida State’s stage 5 clinger defense is USUALLY supported by as ugly of an offense as you can find in all of college basketball. Discounting the North Carolina game, which in many aspects looks like an aberration (32 points from Dulkys?!), FSU has played down to their reputation several times this year. They’ve scored under 60 three times, including the absolute horror show they put on against Harvard (14 points in the first half). This team has the unsavory ability to miss in bunches, and as long as they don’t get to the stripe where they’re adequate (70.1%), they usually continue to dig the hole deeper with rushed shots and the ever present turnover (18.2 TO/PG, 5^th worst in NCAA).

I’ll go out on a limb and say Lithuanian sensation Deividas Dulkys will play closer to his season scoring average (7.7 PPG) than he did against UNC (again, 32 points on a ridiculous 12/14 shooting). Even if he breaks into double digits, the majority of the scoring will be on the shoulders of Michael Snaer and Ian Miller. Snaer is crazy athletic, but all over the map with his shooting game to game. Miller was beginning to look like a consistent scoring option, putting up at least 15 in each of the 4 games prior to UNC. Then in the biggest offensive explosion of the year against the Tar Heels, he managed only 3 points in 14 minutes. Maryland has faced much better scorers than either of those two this season, and should willingly concede outside shots to them. Snaer’s only real danger is his free throw shooting (85.6%)

Keys:

Even though being smart with the ball is something that should happen every game, it’s especially important in this one. Florida State not only forces a heap of turnovers per game, but uses them to fuel their transition offense where they’re most comfortable. The fewer turnovers Maryland makes, the more times FSU will be forced into half court sets in which they tend to give away plenty turnovers of their own.

Unless it becomes completely necessary, get inside the 3 point line and into the lane. The Seminoles defense guards extremely well against 3 pointers (26.3 %, 5^th NCAA), and Maryland doesn’t necessarily stroke the 3 ball in their own right (34.4%, 170^th NCAA). What the Terps have been doing better in recent games is getting to the line and converting (72% FT last two games). Instead of throwing up a contested three early in the shot clock, look to make the extra pass, get inside, and draw some fouls. After all, the free throw line is the only place on the court that FSU’s suffocating defense can’t play.

SOMEBODY has to keep Dulkys in check during this game. I don’t think he can go off for another big game, but I’m sure Leonard Hamilton is willing to test that theory. He’ll be getting plenty of screens with a green light waiting at the end of them. Lots of his looks against UNC were uncontested, that cannot be the case in this game. A hot shooting night from him would open up the paint for Bernard James, create wider lanes for Snaer, and turn a subpar offensive team into a suddenly potent one.

Prediction:

Maryland needs a signature road win badly, and this would definitely qualify as one. They’ll have to hope FSU’s domination of a Final Four-caliber UNC team was just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. I think that the latter is more true of this Florida State team, and Maryland doesn’t have enough scorers to keep the defense from keying in on Stoglin. I don’t think an exceptional night from him is out of the question, but no one else on this team can create their own shot off the dribble with any consistency. Barring a major leap forward in productivity by Alex Len, I don’t see a second or third scorer capable of pushing the Terps over 70 on the scoreboard, which is what I think it will take for a win.

Florida State 67   Maryland 60   

If Abe Lincoln had sex with a Hell's Angel...(Maryland vs. Wake Forest Preview)

Most teams choose animals (Tigers) westerners (Cowboys) or characters from Deliverance (looking at you West Virginia) to represent their school. I'll try to judge Wake Forest based on their team instead of on their mascot, the rebellious brother of the Quaker Oats man. 

Why Worry about Wake?

If you click over to ESPN.com, or whatever stat site suits your leisure, and take a look at the ACC scoring leaders, you should have a nice “oh shit” moment upon first glance of the list. That’s because the two names just below Terrell Stoglin – CJ Harris and Travis McKie - have “WAKE” written next to them.

CJ Harris (Jr.) has gone from a role player his first two years (9.9 and 10.3 ppg), to a dominant scoring force for Wake this season. A 6'3" guard who was always adept at getting to the line (he hit 17/18 FT's against Miami last year) Harris is now getting his points from everywhere on the floor, and getting them more efficiently than any player in the ACC. He’s shooting 53% from the field, which is insane for a guard, and 55% from 3 point range, which is insane for anybody (5^th in the NCAA). Last game, he buried Virginia Tech, and then nailed on the coffin with two clutch three pointers in the final minute.

Travis McKie (So.) is the more multifaceted of Wake’s two threats due to his size. At 6’7”, the 3/4 combo is brandishing a newly effective perimeter game (38% from 3 point range), and has blossomed into a legitimate full court threat. Although it was Harris in the final minute against VA Tech, it was McKie in the first 47 pulling down 15 rebounds along with 12 points to help keep Wake in that game. Neither of these two provide the uber-athletic challenge of a CJ Leslie or an Austin Rivers, but their production is undeniable (they’ve combined for 13 20+ point games this season). If they both play to their averages, this game will suddenly be on level ground. 

The Deacs are coming off their best game of the year, upsetting an above average Virginia Tech team at home. Their rebounding - which had been a point of weakness - was uncharacteristically dominant, and the 2-3 zone held up inside and out (Tech was 6/22 from deep).

Why Wake should be a Walkover:

Last game Maryland got plenty of open looks against a below average NC State defense. This game, the Terps will face a defense that – last game notwithstanding - may very well be the worst in major conference college basketball. If you didn’t know (and I didn’t) there are 345 men’s teams in Division 1, and you need to scroll through a lot of them before seeing Wake on any defensive stats list. They are a god awful 330^th in points per game allowed (77.2), 328^th in opponents 3 point percentage (37.0), and a less embarrassing by comparison 288^th in opponents shooting percentage (45.6). They allowed 84 points to a 5-10 Arizona State team, and gave up 83 to High Point in a 4 point win. Todd Bradford couldn’t coach a defense this bad (too soon?).

There’s really only one more scoring threat on Wake (Tony Chennault at 11.1 PPG), and then nothing even worth considering. Of the single digit per game scorers, only Carson Desrosiers shoots over 40% from the floor, and that 45% is diminished by him being 7 feet tall and being able to almost look down into the basket. So outside of the big 2 scorers, Wake Forest has precious little firepower to give as good as they get.

This team is almost completely unchanged from the one that Maryland waxed by 19 last season in Winston Salem.

What Maryland needs to do to win:

There are plenty of times this year that the Terps are going to need to rely heavily on Terrell Stoglin’s shot making to keep them in games. This will not be one of those times. In fact an overreliance on a cold Stoglin is one of the only ways I could see this game being close (the other is a team-wide case of the flu). If Maryland keeps the ball moving on offense, there should be open shooters because A) that's usually the byproduct of a 2-3 zone and B) Wake's 2-3 zone is probably an abomination.

Against all bad teams, second chances can give them a second life, so Maryland has to stake their claim on the defensive boards. It looks like this shouldn’t be that difficult, as Wake ranks 327^th nationally in offensive rebounds per game. James Padgett and Ashton Pankey need to be at their physical, ferocious best, and Alex Len needs to show consistent effort for the full game. The Terps defense has looked good if not great for the most part this year, so they can’t waste solid defensive possessions by not closing them out with a rebound, especially against the efficient duo of Harris and McKie.

Speaking of those two, Maryland can do themselves a huge favor by cutting off half of Wake Forest’s scoring power. Considering Harris should be working off a bevy of screens to get open looks, McKie will be the easier candidate to defuse. Sean Mosley might be too small, and James Padgett too slow, but Mychal Parker could be the ideal fit. Considering his recent stretch of good play, Parker should get some well deserved minutes in this game, hopefully while locking down one of Wake’s premiere offensive options.

My prediction:

Maryland is 7-3 in their last 10 games vs Wake Forest, and this seems like an ideal opportunity to pick up their second win against an RPI top 100 team. In Winston Salem, I would still give Maryland a slight edge. But at Comcast, I think Maryland will get out to a double digit lead by half, and for one of the first times this year, coast to a win. Look for the Terps to continue to get better against a team with close to equal talent, but significantly inferior execution.

Maryland 79   Wake Forest 64

I miss Sidney Lowe (NC State - Maryland recap)

Well amidst all of the Tebowmania yesterday, there was a still a Maryland basketball game that was played, so a quick review of what went right and what went wrong yesterday at the RBC Center.

1. I think the biggest issue that I had from a game plan standpoint was the inability to get Alex Len involved for the majority of the second half. Nick Faust and Pe’Shon Howard struggled mightily from the field, as did Sean Mosley until about halfway through the period. Len still did end up with a double-double (12 points, 11 rebounds), but he’s the best second option for this team going forward, especially if he’s capable of knocking down the 15 foot jumper he did in this game. I think Len’s lack of involvement was partially due to the gameplan, and partially because he was very passive in the second half (he looked tired, especially trying to get back on defense), but both of those issues need to be fixed if Maryland wants to seriously compete.  
2. Pe’Shon Howard is turning the corner returning from his injury, and the first half of this game was a great showcase for it. He looked exactly like the passing point guard this team lacked in his absence, routinely finding open shooters all over the court, and finishing with 8 assists. The shooting (1/8 from the floor) will come around eventually, but the most important facet of his game appears to be almost completely back to normal.
3. Terrell Stoglin played great yesterday, something he’ll need to continue to do in order to keep the Terps in any game this season. It’s very impressive that he’s able to answer the bell game after game as just a sophomore, and I think he’ll be able to keep doing it because of how versatile he’s become. Since last season, his 3 point shooting percentage has risen 7% from 36 % to 43%. Now that every team has to respect his shot out to 20-25 feet, or he’ll bury them with deep balls all night. That range combined with his already blazing quickness really gives him a complete offensive toolset in a very small but dominant package.
4. Two of the lower classmen are going in two different directions. Mychal Parker has quietly transformed himself from a live pulse to an actual competent, skilled basketball player. I don’t think he’ll get a ton of minutes this year with Mosley doing almost everything he does at the 3 but better, but there’s no denying his improvement. An efficient 9 points on 3-3 shooting, including a three, two made free throws, and an eye opening 3 steals. If you've watched highlight videos of him, Parker's athleticism jumps off the screen. Even with limited offensive tools, he has the potential to be a beast on defense, which is extremely valuable. Parker got his fewest minutes of the season yesterday (12), but if Turgeon watched what I did, that number will stay the lowest for the rest of the year.
5. On the other hand, Nick Faust has looked bad plenty more times than he’s looked good this year, and yesterday was no exception. Another bad shooting day compounded with precious little else in his box score row (a board and a dime). I don’t know how Faust actually makes his shot, he looks off balance on his release even when he’s wide open. I know Faust is just a freshman, and the adjustment to college ball is a difficult one to make, but it should definitely start becoming more of an even platoon between he and Parker off the bench.
6. Unsurprisingly, what lost this game was another subpar performance at the line (13/21), and some very untimely turnovers. Pe’Shon making a sloppy pass when the lead was at 6, Faust bulling into a charge after UMD had cut it to 4. The rebounding battle was sufficiently close (largely thanks to James Padgett working his ass of underneath to rip a few boards away from a bigger NC State front line. Nobody besides he and Len had more than 3 rebounds).
7. Just more of the youth of this team showing than you would have liked in what really was a difficult road game against an NCAA tournament caliber team. Leslie was an athletic marvel, and Lorenzo Brown is going to push Kendall Marshall for the title of best PG in the conference with more games like yesterday (11 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 1 turnover). Not to mention their offensive communism was in full force yesterday (6 players with 7 points or more). This was a close game throughout, and if a few more free throws bounced in, or if a few more passes found their marks, I’d be writing about the first of a few road upsets this Terps team will pull this season.    

It'd be cooler if Maryland played these guys tomorrow (NC State vs. UMD preview)

The second most wonderful time of the year has arrived in college basketball. Conference play is just opening up, and the sound of bubbles inflating and popping is music to any fan’s ears. After a start reminiscent of a broken elevator (3-3 in the first 6 games) Turgeon’s Terps seem to have stabilized by feasting on diet of mid-majors. In the last year of the true ACC – one in which the conference is having trouble finding adequate side attractions for the main events in North Carolina – Maryland is an intriguing possibility.

The last game against Cornell showed that this team has enough talent to pile on a big lead (15-0 run to start the game) and enough inexperience to fritter it away (the second half was an exercise in the “keep-away” offense). Alex Len’s knack for post scoring and unexpected consistency has formed a great pairing with Terrell Stoglin’s mercurial scoring ability. Pe’Shon Howard’s more charitable hand at the point (4.5 APG), has helped the offense average 73 points in the 4 games since his return. And Sean Mosley has been able to settle into his preferred role as 3^rd scorer/box score filler.

So, time to get down to business against the 11-4 NC State Wolfpack.

Wolfpack Strengths:

1)   No more Sidney Lowe. Seriously, of all the guys I’ve seen coach a college basketball game, Lowe was down at the bottom of the barrel. The Terps haven’t lost a game to NC State since 2005, which was the last time Sidney Lowe wasn’t coaching the team. Coincidence or Unsolved Mystery?

2)   Like most young kids, they play well with others. NC State dishes out 17.8 assists per game (7^th in NCAA), and is the only team in the ACC to have 5 players averaging 10+ points per game. The team also does a good job of finishing possessions with points, shooting 48% from the field (3^rd in ACC).

3)   Two extremely talented sophomores. CJ Leslie is a hyper athletic power forward who has scored in double digits in all but one game this year, and blocked three or more shots in 6 games. He’s an above average mid range shooter for his size, and should be a matchup problem for Maryland whose bigs will have trouble keeping up with him.

Lorenzo Brown is a stretched out point guard (6’5” 189) who has flourished at the position in his second year (remind you of anyone?) His 6.7 assists per game are second in the ACC to Kendall Marshall, and have helped pace the formerly scattered Wolfpack offense.

4)   One exceptional shooter. Scott Wood’s recent three point cold streak has him down to 47% from beyond the arc from a mark that stood at a mindblowing 54% midway through December. And yet somehow by launching threes, Wood is forsaking the best part of his game. He has not missed one free throw this year in 31 attempts. He is the resident floor stretcher in Raleigh, as Maryland witnessed last year when he went 5-7 from downtown.

Wolfpack Weaknesses:    

1)   Outside of Wood, this is a team of stonemasons, (31% from three).

2)   Despite supreme athleticism at some spots, and the occasional petty theft (3 players averaging 1+ steal per game), NC State plays very uninspired defense (69 ppg, 219^th in NCAA), especially on the perimeter where opponents are knocking down threes at a 37.8% rate (305^th in NCAA).

How Maryland wins this game:

            Although it’s a communist offensive system, the Wolfpack offense hinges heavily on Lorenzo Brown whose 6.7 assists are tops on the team by a wide margin. If the defense can hassle him into some uncharacteristic mistakes (which is a definite possibility with a sophomore point guard, even a talented one), the NC State offense will get very messy very quickly. Pe’Shon Howard is the better defender of the backcourt duo, so I would expect Brown to be his assignment.

Stoglin’s defense always borders on questionable, but he’ll have a unique challenge against the NC State back court, which is not only uniform in scoring (Wood, Williams, and Brown all average 12.5 points), but also in size (all three range from 6’5” to 6’6”). Stoglin is too valuable to hide on the bench in favor of a lengthier lineup, so he’ll need to make up for his lack of size with effort.

Maryland fits the profile of a young team in that they have a lot of trouble with turnovers, so much so that early in the season their assist to turnover ratio was regularly negative. Pe’Shon’s return has stemmed that tide against lesser opponents, but obviously Maryland doesn’t have the top-25 caliber talent or ironclad defense to overcome carelessness. A relatively clean game (less than 10 turnovers) would go a long way towards a win.

As I stated earlier, NC State has been very unsuccessful guarding against the three. One person (god forbid two) sinking a couple of money balls along side Stoglin would help soften the lane for Len’s post moves and Stoglin’s drives. Since Sean Mosley is shooting an acceptable 39% from downtown, and because the game being close is contingent upon him showing up anyways, I’ll peg him as one of the gunners. Nick Faust came out of high school labeled as a shooter, a label which has since been peeled off due to a 20.5% average from three. Just two or three treys from him would spread the Wolfpack defense like jelly.

So to recap:

1)  Peer pressure on Lorezno Brown. Harass him all day long and force him into some bad decisions.

2)   Conversely, make smart passes on the offensive end, and keep the turnover numbers in single digits.

3)   Sean Mosley, whose production flickers like a broken light bulb, needs to be firmly switched on. At least 15 points from the senior leader of this team.

4)   Keep the NC State defense honest by knocking down some three’s on a defense that almost begs you to.

My prediction:

            Being a Maryland fan, I obviously want the team to win this game. But, I just don’t see them pulling this one out on the road against a team that rebounds well, scores evenly and efficiently, and has a deadeye three point shooter capable of stretching the floor for their athletes. NC State 82 Maryland 71.