Wednesday, September 21, 2011

AFC Power Rankings #2: New York Jets





What makes them good: 
A suffocating, and for the first time, healthy defense. Obviously health in NFL is extremely moment-to-moment, but as of right now, the Jets might have their strongest defensive unit that Rex Ryan has ever had. The first three quarters against Dallas were touch and go, but since the Cowboys’ first possession of the 4th, the Jets have been downright dominant.
After a fortuitous fumble forced on Tony Romo, the Dallas offense gained 40 yards total on their proceeding four possessions, which culminated in a blocked punt, punt, interception, and fumble respectively. Overall, it was an uneven performance, but as has become the Jets trademark, they harmonized in the waning moments.
I don’t want to get too excited about last week’s performance in Jacksonville, because of how incredibly stagnant and one-noted the Jaguars offensive “attack” is. I expected a dominant win last win for the Jets, and I wasn’t disappointed. But, there is a point to be made for exactly how dominant the Jets were. After all, the Jaguars did win their first game against a Titans team that is becoming a trendy underdog pick after their upset of Week 1 Super Bowl favorite Baltimore.
The Jets made the Jaguars look like an unpracticed high school team. The bowling ball with the MJD initials managed to get his (as he inevitably does), but after an error-free week 1, Luke McCown might have thrown one good pass all day. It was called back by a holding penalty. After what many considered to be a down year in 2010, last week’s performance showed they type of dominance that the Jets exhibited in their first year under Rex.
Muhammad Wilkerson needs to continue his improvement on the defensive line, and Mike Pettine needs to find the correct mix of what safeties should be on the field at what times, but those are the only two problems left to solve. The outside pass rusher that fans were clamoring for in the offseason has materialized in the form of a finally healthy Calvin Pace. The run defense has been stout as always, and the best cornerback in the league looks as good as ever when quarterbacks have accepted the gambit of throwing at him.
Antonio Cromartie was beaten twice for touchdowns in Week 1, and he’s certainly far from perfect. But most teams don’t have one receiver as talented as Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, let alone two. Cromartie’s perfect coverage on the Austin touchdown was overshadowed by a flawless pass by Romo, and a phenomenal job on the receiving end by Austin. He usually does get beaten on more than one occasion during a game, but he’s one of the few #2 cornerbacks capable of the exceptional play, and he’s the most dangerous player on the Jets with the ball in his hands.



Where they are struggling:

            The offense is in the midst of an identity crisis. It unquestionably belongs to Brian Schottenheimer’s at this point, with most of the handoffs ending with the ball still in Mark Sanchez’s hands. Since Nick Mangold will be on the bench for at least the next two weeks, it should probably stay that way. But this team has made its hay the past few years hammering away at defensive lines with top notch blocking. The abundance of talent up front has allowed average running backs to consistently gouge 5 to 6 yards per carry every season.
            Unfortunately, with the injury to Mangold, what was a talent thin offensive line is now emaciated. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Brandon Moore are both still among the elite at their respective positions, but their top-level talent looks misplaced among their shockingly average peers.
Matt Slauson was a nice story last year at left guard, but even if he maximizes his ability, he’ll never be a left guard on the level of Alan Faneca or Pete Kendall who came before him. Wayne Hunter has served only as a flattened speed bump in the first two games, not even charging cover to pass rushers, while only barely stemming their momentum on the way to full force collisions with Mark Sanchez. He’s been bad enough that there has been talk of replacing him with Vlad Ducasse, which is like going to a gunfight with a plastic knife instead of a metal one.
            And then there is Sanchez. This is after all his third year. The year that the honeymoon is not only over, but all of the pictures from it are gone. As always, he’s looked very uneven. His box score against Dallas has a gaudy number in the yardage column, but the mistakes were frighteningly amateur, as were his 2 early interceptions in the Jacksonville game.
And none of the mistakes have been because of bad luck with tipped passes or drops. All three interceptions have come when Sanchez was sitting in a comfortably sized pocket, and completely misreading the coverage. A fourth should have come on the last drive against Dallas where the immortal Alan Ball almost jumped a terrible throw, but had it fall through his hands. Sanchez may never be an elite fantasy quarterback, but he needs to remember to be a steady real one.
When the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2003, the biggest keys for them were that they had a very good offensive line, an even better defense, and a quarterback who didn’t take them out of a game. In Tom Brady’s third year as a starter, he threw for 3,620 yards (a number not unreachable for Sanchez who threw for 3,291 yards in 2010) 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Brady didn’t have an interception in 12 out of 19 games, and was intercepted twice or more in only four (two of which were the Patriots only losses). He also completed 60.2 % of his passes, which is probably the biggest stat for a quarterback in my opinion. Huge yardage numbers are always fun to watch, but you only need ten yards to pick up a first down and keep your opponents defense on the field.
The point here is, is that Sanchez needs to realize that, just like a great pitcher, some days he’s not going to have his best stuff. Great players know how to work around that and still be effective. If Sanchez can hit the same baseline numbers that Brady hit in 2003, there’s no reason this team can’t win a Super Bowl with a healthy, dominant defense. 

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