Thursday, April 28, 2011

With the 30th pick in 2011 Draft...

In my opinion, there is really only one way that the last two New York Jets seasons can be viewed: they are very, very, close. Consecutive AFC championship game appearances, coupled with a 3-2 lead in the series against the Patriots under the rule of Ryan make that much clear.
With such a defensive minded coach, it’s somewhat ironic that there is more long term stability on the other side of the ball. A bruising young running back and a sure-handed veteran with the occasional trick still left up his sleeve. At least one, (and hopefully two) gamebreaking receivers with a quarterback who has been most effective at synchronizing with them when the stakes are raised. And above all, an offensive line that renders itself an afterthought due to consistently outstanding run blocking, and protection reminiscent of the Secret Service. Needless to say, I’m of the opinion that the Jets need to use this first round pick to upgrade the defense.
             Mock Draft's seem to have the Jets picking Phil Taylor to fill the hole left by Kris Jenkins for the past two years. In my estimation, Jenkins doesn't necessarily need to be replaced. The fact that he's blown out his knee early in 2009 and 2010, and the defense has gone on to spectacular years only strengthens that case. Replacing Jenkins is like getting a new HDTV instead of paying the electric bill.
             The elephant in the room when it comes to Ryan's defense is that it's pass rush by committee. The Bears game stands out in particular as a time when the issue reared its ugly head.Rex relies on multiple looks not just because it's his preference, but also because the option to put the bulk of pass rushing responsibilities in the hands of one or two people is simply not there. Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace are both nice pieces, but not types that opposing offensive coordinators need to game plan around.  Phil Taylor’s most effective trait is his ability to occupy space, which is already something effectively accomplished by Sione Pouha (and Mike DeVito in 4-3 packages). 
             With this year’s crop of defensive tackles, there’s really only one in the Jets range that I believe has star-like qualities, and that’s Marvin Austin. He’s extremely nimble for a defensive tackle, and was widely considered the second best defensive tackle available for this year’s draft before he was suspended for the entire 2010 season. Although Pouha is 32, the only way I feel that a defensive tackle draft pick would be justified is if the player brought a new aspect to the already solid defensive tackle position, which Austin would with his potentially explosive athleticism complementing Pouha’s stout work against the run.
            The most obvious way to remedy the pass rush issue is simple: get a pass rusher. Whether it’s a 3-4 end with the ability to get to the quarterback, or an outside linebacker with the speed and strength to command double teams, both would be welcome additions to a team whose leading sacker was Bryan Thomas with 6 last year. Assuming that the Jets don't move up into a spot where an elite one is available (which is always a possibility with Mike Tannenbaum), there are three options that I have narrowed it down to. Adrian Clayborn at DE and either Akeem Ayers or Justin Houston at OLB. Of the three, I think Clayborn addresses a more pressing need as a 3-4 defensive end, but his precipitous drop off from 2009 to 2010 is definitely worrisome. Clayborn doesn't possess the elite athleticism that is necessary to consistently outmaneuver larger and quicker offensive tackles on the next level. 
In terms of the outside linebackers, Ayers is definitely the safer pick considering his ability to cover and work against the run are both solid. When I looked up Justin Houston on YouTube, a Vernon Gholston video appeared in the recommended videos window…not a good start. But he’s a relentless pass rusher and- if he pans out- could fill the role that Terrell Suggs had in Rex’s defense in Baltimore.
In the case that the Jets DO move up, it would almost have to be for Da'Quan Bowers. His knee could be a glaring red flag, as well as whether he fits in the Ryan's base 3-4 defense. Jonathan Vilma and Vernon Gholston have previously shown that you can't just jam pieces into the puzzle because they look nice. But for all of the concern about his health, it was only a month ago that Bowers was a consensus top 3 pick, and his ceiling is several stories higher than all of the aforementioned players, with the possible exception of Austin. 
Overall, if I had to rank these players in order of preference, it would go 5. Houston, 4. Clayborn, 3. Bowers, 2. Ayers, 1. Austin. Bowers is obviously the most talented player, but would require the Jets again walking away with a dearth of draft picks. I think Austin could play outside on a 3-4 occasionally despite being relatively short at 6’1”, and he possesses what I believe to be Sapp-like athleticism. The Houston-Gholston parallels scare me away from him, and Ayers seems like he’s the safer pick and a more well-rounded player. 

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