With the 30th pick in 2011 Draft...

In my opinion, there is really only one way that the last two New York Jets seasons can be viewed: they are very, very, close. Consecutive AFC championship game appearances, coupled with a 3-2 lead in the series against the Patriots under the rule of Ryan make that much clear.

With such a defensive minded coach, it’s somewhat ironic that there is more long term stability on the other side of the ball. A bruising young running back and a sure-handed veteran with the occasional trick still left up his sleeve. At least one, (and hopefully two) gamebreaking receivers with a quarterback who has been most effective at synchronizing with them when the stakes are raised. And above all, an offensive line that renders itself an afterthought due to consistently outstanding run blocking, and protection reminiscent of the Secret Service. Needless to say, I’m of the opinion that the Jets need to use this first round pick to upgrade the defense.

             Mock Draft's seem to have the Jets picking Phil Taylor to fill the hole left by Kris Jenkins for the past two years. In my estimation, Jenkins doesn't necessarily need to be replaced. The fact that he's blown out his knee early in 2009 and 2010, and the defense has gone on to spectacular years only strengthens that case. Replacing Jenkins is like getting a new HDTV instead of paying the electric bill.
             The elephant in the room when it comes to Ryan's defense is that it's pass rush by committee. The Bears game stands out in particular as a time when the issue reared its ugly head.Rex relies on multiple looks not just because it's his preference, but also because the option to put the bulk of pass rushing responsibilities in the hands of one or two people is simply not there. Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace are both nice pieces, but not types that opposing offensive coordinators need to game plan around.  Phil Taylor’s most effective trait is his ability to occupy space, which is already something effectively accomplished by Sione Pouha (and Mike DeVito in 4-3 packages). 

             With this year’s crop of defensive tackles, there’s really only one in the Jets range that I believe has star-like qualities, and that’s Marvin Austin. He’s extremely nimble for a defensive tackle, and was widely considered the second best defensive tackle available for this year’s draft before he was suspended for the entire 2010 season. Although Pouha is 32, the only way I feel that a defensive tackle draft pick would be justified is if the player brought a new aspect to the already solid defensive tackle position, which Austin would with his potentially explosive athleticism complementing Pouha’s stout work against the run.

            The most obvious way to remedy the pass rush issue is simple: get a pass rusher. Whether it’s a 3-4 end with the ability to get to the quarterback, or an outside linebacker with the speed and strength to command double teams, both would be welcome additions to a team whose leading sacker was Bryan Thomas with 6 last year. Assuming that the Jets don't move up into a spot where an elite one is available (which is always a possibility with Mike Tannenbaum), there are three options that I have narrowed it down to. Adrian Clayborn at DE and either Akeem Ayers or Justin Houston at OLB. Of the three, I think Clayborn addresses a more pressing need as a 3-4 defensive end, but his precipitous drop off from 2009 to 2010 is definitely worrisome. Clayborn doesn't possess the elite athleticism that is necessary to consistently outmaneuver larger and quicker offensive tackles on the next level. 

In terms of the outside linebackers, Ayers is definitely the safer pick considering his ability to cover and work against the run are both solid. When I looked up Justin Houston on YouTube, a Vernon Gholston video appeared in the recommended videos window…not a good start. But he’s a relentless pass rusher and- if he pans out- could fill the role that Terrell Suggs had in Rex’s defense in Baltimore.
In the case that the Jets DO move up, it would almost have to be for Da'Quan Bowers. His knee could be a glaring red flag, as well as whether he fits in the Ryan's base 3-4 defense. Jonathan Vilma and Vernon Gholston have previously shown that you can't just jam pieces into the puzzle because they look nice. But for all of the concern about his health, it was only a month ago that Bowers was a consensus top 3 pick, and his ceiling is several stories higher than all of the aforementioned players, with the possible exception of Austin. 

Overall, if I had to rank these players in order of preference, it would go 5. Houston, 4. Clayborn, 3. Bowers, 2. Ayers, 1. Austin. Bowers is obviously the most talented player, but would require the Jets again walking away with a dearth of draft picks. I think Austin could play outside on a 3-4 occasionally despite being relatively short at 6’1”, and he possesses what I believe to be Sapp-like athleticism. The Houston-Gholston parallels scare me away from him, and Ayers seems like he’s the safer pick and a more well-rounded player. 

Planting the seed of hope at the Garden

1)   

       Stay out of early foul trouble

           In both games, the Knicks early attack has been severely hampered by an important cog getting into foul trouble early. Carmelo Anthony in Game 1, Toney Douglas in Game 2. Instead of being able to create an early advantage with a full strength lineup, they have instead simply had to focus on surviving early Celtics onslaughts. Considering the fact that Stoudemire and Billups’ minutes will be limited (optimistically), Mike D’Antoni already has enough on his plate to deal with in terms of his offensive strategy. Having to adjust his lineups on the fly and dig deeper into the bench will mean that the Knicks will lose this game. 

           If the worst does happen, D’Antoni needs to pull the plug on Douglas a little quicker. When he got in foul trouble early in Game 2, he shied away from contact with Rondo on the break, and Rondo coasted to a triumphant first fame. Whether it’s Anthony Carter or Jared Jeffries, a better more effective option needs to be employed when Toney is in foul trouble.


 Replace Landry Fields.

          As much as I like how Fields has been able to mold himself into an effective NBA player over the course of the season, he has no place in this series and he’s showing it. The Celtics are good at getting Allen shots by creating a house of mirrors with screens, and Landry appears to be lost. Guarding Allen also means that Fields is regularly too far from the hoop to provide his most well refined service, rebounding.

           I would like to see a good deal more of Shawne Williams and Bill Walker in Fields’ stead. Walker had a cringe worthy 0/11 shooting line in Game 2, the law of averages almost require him to be better in Game 3. Even if the improvement on that end isn’t earth shattering, he’s an athletic, versatile defensive option who can spell Carmelo for periods on Paul Pierce. The same can be said for Williams, who can guard practically anybody the Celtics put on the floor with the exception of Rondo. 

           Both options are offensive upgrades from Fields at this juncture, and both have infused the Knicks with a rugged physicality when they’ve stepped on the floor in the series. They are wrenches at Mike D’Antoni’s disposal to throw in the Celtics carefully delegated offensive machine, and at different points this year have shown the ability to ride a hot streak on offense. Fields coming off the bench is an attractive option because the attributes that he brings to the game (energy and rebounding) are well suited to short bursts more than extended play.


Have a better plan for when Carmelo is doubled

            I would say after his 42 point masterpiece in Game 2, it’s safe to assume that whoever does draw the assignment of guarding Anthony will receive some extra assistance. When Doc Rivers finally started employing that strategy in the 4^th quarter, the Knicks offense broke down almost completely, and it ultimately resulted in the game resting in Jared Jeffries offensively challenged hands twice. This cannot happen again. 

            Jeffries panicked on the last play and didn’t see a wide open Douglas in the corner, and on the previous possession when Mason got the ball on the wing with 9 seconds left on the shot clock, nobody moved and Mason had to take a contested three that Jeffries was fortunate to rebound. Knowing D’Antoni, the offensive plan will be better this time around. Roger Mason really only has one value on this team, and it’s as a shooter, Douglas is a shooter and has the capability to create and get to the basket as well. The ball should not be in Jeffries hands in key moments at all costs.


Apply constant pressure to the Celtics on the offensive end

            With the possible exception of Carmelo getting Game 2 hot, The Knicks should never give the Celtics an easy defensive possession. No ill regarded shots early in the shot clock, a limited amount of unforced errors, and crash the offensive boards hard. The Celtics have proved that regardless of what the scoreboard says, they are always in the game, and they need to be treated like that. 

             I’m actually more worried about how the Knicks will react to the crowd than how the Celtics will, because the Knicks have to guard against overconfidence and the danger of quickening their pace to the point that too many absentminded mistakes are made. The Celtics are a model to follow in that they never got too high or too low, they maintain a steady but not breakneck offensive flow throughout the game, and they always look for the best shot every possession instead of wasting a possession on a heat check.


Get it to STAT early

            As a realist, I’m going to go ahead and say that Amar’e Stoudemire is not going to be at 100% during this game. His normally explosive first step will be compromised, and because of this he won’t be able to render Kevin Garnett completely helpless with his offensive versatility…for the entire game. However, at the beginning of the game and possibly just after halftime, whatever lingering effects his back spasms have on him should be negated by a combination of treatments and injections. 

             For the limited time Amar’e will be at his most effective, he needs to make Garnett respect his physical ability. Get by him by any means necessary, and anyone else who gets in his way. After he’s able to establish his ability to get the basket, he should be able to rely on his consistent 15 footer considering Garnett will be forced to respect the notion that Amar’e is one of the few power forwards that he doesn’t have the speed and power to keep up with anymore. STAT might not draw a double team, but he’ll make sure that Garnett won’t be available as a double teamer.

Prediction:

            A lot of people are giving the Knicks this game because of the aura of the Garden, and how close they’ve played the first two games. The only team in these playoffs that will not be fazed by the Garden will be the Boston Celtics. They haven’t lost to the Knicks all year, and they’ve simply been through too many battles to inexplicably lose their cool at the sight of a fully packed MSG, however impressive and imposing it may be. The other point makes more sense to me: The Knicks have played both games down to the wire in Boston, the latter of the two with Carmelo and a cast of backup singers. 

            IF Stoudemire can go, and doesn’t show too many ill effects from his back spasms, I think the Knicks are able to pull this one out if only for the reason that down the stretch, it will be Amar’e catching those passes from Carmelo, and not Jared Jeffries. 10 years ago today the Knicks beat the Raptors 92-85, time to throw an anniversary party.     

Time to see what we've got with TD

            

I’ve been a vocal supporter of Toney Douglas for a long time. Not just since the Knicks picked him through a draft night trade with the Lakers, but since college. Out of all of the visiting players that I ever deemed to “suck” at Maryland in the pre-game warm-ups, he and Al Thornton made me eat my words the most. He’s always been a mortal lock to play suffocating defense until the final buzzer, which I think is invaluable to any team, especially the New York Knicks considering their nightly Jekyll and Hyde act on that end. He’s waterbug quick, with pitbull intensity, and the confidence to let it fly from three, which is usually beneficial because of his good to lethal accuracy from there. The point guard instincts are still in the formative stages, retarded by Florida State’s otherwise impotent offense relying almost completely on his production. But I think he can be an effective starting point guard in the NBA, and there’s no better stress test for that hypothesis than this game.

            After being limited by D’Antoni during Felton’s stay with the team, and briefly captaining the ship during Billups’ previous thigh injury, tonight is finally Toney’s night to sink or swim test. This game WILL SHOW whether he can handle the duties of a starting point guard in this league, or if he’ll be relegated to back up status for the remainder of his tenure in New York, and probably afterwards. Although it may not be the ideal situation for this to be taking place during a vitally important Game 2 against the defending Eastern Conference champs, it’s exactly what I want to see.

There’s only two ways this can go. The consensus opinion is that without Billups’ steady hand to guide the offense, it will sputter against the best defense in the league. Toney won’t be able to balance the high wire act between keeping his two superstars happy while also remembering that he’s a more than viable offensive option. He can occasionally be tentative with his passes, and the Celtics defense feasts on indecision. His “two sizes too small” tight defense is not suited to Rondo, who has the speed to blow by overanxious defenders who don’t give him room to play stone mason with his jump shots. If the night ends with a round number in the win column and only two on the scoreboard, a lot of blame will be placed on the play caller of this usually high powered offense. 

Or tonight could be the Knicks find their point guard of the future, however near that may be. All of the clamoring for a young dynamic point guard could be reduced to whispers in 48 solid minutes. He’s done it a few times this season against playoff teams. The 30 point game on the road at the eventual leader in the clubhouse Chicago Bulls in November. Helping to force rookie phenom John Wall into 9 turnovers the very next night while hanging crooked numbers all over his own row in the box score. And most convincing, his complete and utter deconstruction of all things Chris Paul on a night that was supposed to be a premature welcome party to the man who plenty believe is the best point guard in the league. The next day, the switchboards of New York sports radio stations lit up like Lite Brite’s with calls about how Paul might not even be worth the investment, and that maybe the Knicks should look elsewhere for their forthcoming third piece.

Nobody mentioned the other side of that argument, that maybe Toney Douglas is just that good. Maybe he’s close to figuring it out, he’s definitely not the distributor that Paul is, but he’s a better deep ball shooter with unparalleled defense among point guards. He might not be a superstar, but if Billups can teach him up on how to run an offense (something he’s really never had outside of the aforementioned brief tenure with Felton) he can be an important piece of a championship contending team. It’s apparent to everyone who’s watched the Knicks that they look and play “very different” with Toney running the point. Tonight is the night that he gets to determine which two words replace those. 

Whistling through the Graveyard

For months on end, I have been extolling the virtues of the Celtics as a basketball team. Their tough defense, their rarely shown playoff gear, the ridiculous number of big win scalps they’ve collected since the Big 3 were put together. As a fan, I have dreaded the thought of the Knicks drawing them in a playoff series, because I legitimately thought they were the one team that could not only beat the Knicks, but flat out embarrass them.

            But since that game on March 21, things have changed. It’s no revelation to say that Celtics aren’t what they once were, in terms of roster configuration or on court performance. A lot of people would argue that the Celtics are reaching for the same rope a dope tactic that propelled them to the Finals last year. Just sit back, let your opponent get the points that don’t mean anything, let them get overconfident and then come charging out with full reserves of energy in the late rounds to win the fight. That could be true, but the reason I don’t believe it is the same reason there wasn’t an Ali-Foreman rematch. That trick only works once, and I think the Celtics know that. They may be getting the media to count them out, but this time around, the teams in the eastern conference won’t be caught punchless against Boston in the playoffs.

            The more I think about the game a month ago, the more confident I feel going into the series. The Knicks came out full of energy and raced to a 14 point halftime lead, and Doc decided to go to the whip early instead of saving it for the last quarter pole. New York, in their newest iteration, was the one team that hadn’t seen the Celtics’ “rise from the dead” routine yet. I think if the game was last year, Doc just lets the team play it out as is. Maybe they shoot themselves back into it, maybe the Knicks shoot themselves out of it, but a team the caliber of the Celtics should have bigger things to worry about then a March away game against anyone. Let the Knicks get one, let them start talking about how they want the Celtics, and then flip over the straight flush in the playoffs and empty their bankroll like Teddy KGB.

But Doc chose to show his hand early, and to their credit, the Celtics flat out bumrushed the Knicks after halftime. They brought out the playoff intensity, closed off the passing lanes and thoroughly outhustled a team that thought they could somehow coast to a great home victory over the reigning alpha team of the eastern conference.  

            On the scale between sending a message and pressing the panic button, I tend to think that what happened that night leaned towards the latter. Why give the Knicks any idea of what they would be facing in the playoffs? Why send Melo home with cuts on his eye and bruises to his ego thinking “I wish I had one more chance at them” when he’s going to have another chance? Save the suffocating-diving for balls-eye elbowing defense for when it’s needed. That night reminded me of Tony Soprano beating the shit out of his driver to prove that he was still top dog, and then throwing up in the bathroom sink moments later. It was a very oddly timed strategic move, and I think it’s because the Celtics aren’t what they once were in a number of ways.

            Comparing last year’s Celtic slide to this year’s shows two big differences: scoring, and the roster. When the Celtics seemingly went in the tank leading up to the playoffs last year, they were still scoring a respectable amount of points in most of their games. A 110-97 loss to the Jazz, a 109-104 loss to the Thunder, 101-93 to the Bulls. Their defense was their ultimate shortcoming in those games, and it was clearly because they were resting. By playoff time they had saved enough gas in the tank to go back to their suffocating brand of man to man without the risk of tiring out.

            This year, it’s an entirely different and infinitely more worrying issue for Celtics fans. The defense has been there, which means they’re not dogging it in these games, they’re trying to win. Since the Knicks game, the Celtics are averaging 91.75 points per game, almost a full five points lower than they’ve been averaging for the season. That number would be 2^nd worst in the NBA over the course of the season, ahead of just the Bucks. Ray Allen is shooting 30.6% from three, KG is still shooting at a respectable clip, but he’s no longer a franchise scorer who can average 20+ for a series. Rondo, as usual, has been all over the map, and Jeff Green has only scored over 10 points in one game, which was last night’s contest in Washington where he took 20 shots to get that many points. Say what you may about Knicks, but the one thing that teams need to do to beat them is score. Maybe the Celtics will shut them down for one game, but realistically the Knicks are going to get to triple digits almost every night. Teams have to hit their shots to win, and the Celtics haven’t shown that they can recently.

            Obviously losing Kendrick Perkins was the most talked about theory as to why the Celtics have been struggling. But again, Perkins is only averaging 6.1 PPG this season, so in terms of the offense, he’s not a huge a loss. However, the rest of their role players from last year were huge losses. The only holdover from the bench that got the finals last year is Big Baby, who is a solid player that can knock down a 15 foot shot, take charges, and spell Garnett for a few minutes. West could have been a nice pickup, but has been injured all season and got injured last night. Shaq being completely healthy is a delusion, and him being healthy enough to positively contribute seems like an unlikelihood after his recent calf injury. Carlos Arroyo wasn’t good enough for Miami, Troy Murphy has been unsurprisingly invisible since being picked up.

            Davis is all that’s left, and the numbers reflect that, he’s been the leading scorer on the bench in 8 of the past 12 Celtics games. Tony Allen in last year’s playoffs had a 14 point game against Miami, and 15 points in Game 4 against Cleveland, both Boston wins. Nate Robinson had 13 points in Game 7 against Orlando, and 12 points in Game 4 against Los Angeles. Rasheed Wallace had 17 points against Cleveland in Game 2, 13 points in Game 7, and 13 points in Game 1 against Orlando, also all wins. Those three players are in Memphis, Oklahoma City, and retired respectively. There’s much more pressure on the Big 3 this year because they have significantly less help, and in the past month that’s been showing up glaringly on the scoreboard. Despite the Knicks being constantly derided for their short rotation, they certainly have a more potent one than their first round opponents.

            I’m not going to cop out and say I still think the Celtics will win this series because I don’t. Maybe I’m whistling through the graveyard, but I don’t think the Celtics are just playing dead this time. The big 3’s backs have shouldered a heavy load too many times to do it again, the bench is thinning by the day, and the Knicks are winners of their last seven heading into the playoffs. If the Knicks play defense, which they usually do in big games, they will be able to gut out this series. I see them stealing one up in Boston, defending the Garden, and making baseball season relevant much more quickly than any Boston fan wants. The Knicks may not be the new alpha team in the eastern conference, but the time has come for a change at the top, and they will help facilitate it.  

Notes from a night of New York @ Philadelphia

• Through three quarters, the Knicks @ 76ers game looked like a sure bet to counterbalance what would be the inevitable Mets loss to the Phillies. But the fourth quarter has been the time that the Knicks loosen their grip on the rope, and last night was no difference. Philly stormed back with some tight defense, Billups had a deja vu moment colliding knees with Elton Brand on a high screen, and by the time Amar'e crumpled to the floor with his own knee injury, the lead was nearly gone. However, despite the defensive lapses prior to the Billups injuries, and the resulting disjointed offense, Carmelo was still able to turn in his most impressive performance in this recent string of his. On the surface, it was his immediate response to Andre Iguodala's improbable deep three over Fields, but really it was that he took AI out back to the woodshed all night. Despite the fact that Carmelo has been on a hot streak recently, Iguodala is known to be the quintessential defensive small forward in the NBA. The degree of difficultly on this performance was as high as possible, and Carmelo significantly outscored AND OUT-REBOUNDED a league renowned defensive stopper. For all of his ball stopping, and there's a good deal of it, this is why he was acquired. Every skeptical Knicks fan that is watching Denver pile up wins every night needs only to look at this game to see why the trade was worth it. When the chips are down late in a tough game, this team no longer needs to hope that one of a group of solid role players takes charge with Amar'e to win the game. There is a good argument to be made that along with a star power forward, opposing teams now need to worry about defending the deadliest closer in the game. And he may have proved last night that no one defender is enough.
• I've seen several blogs say today that after Billups and Stoudemire went down with seemingly minor injuries last night, the Knicks should simply rest their starters and coast to the playoffs. I could not disagree more. If Billups and Stoudemire can play at all, they should. I would say that this is not a team that has a luxury of flipping the light switch, but quite simply this isn't even a team yet. It's getting there, beating up on weaker opponents with the possible exception of last night (the Magic without Jameer Nelson are little more than a cheap parlor trick). Billups is just getting comfortable running this offense in regular season skirmishes, to rest him and then plop him down in the DEFCON 5 that is the playoffs is a recipe for disaster. More importantly possibly, is that STAT is in the process of redefining his role to better suit this team. He's realized that in most cases, there cannot be two ball stoppers on the court at once, and was a willing (7 assists) and capable (2 turnovers) passer last night. I don't see LeBron resting, I don't see the Celtics resting, and I don't see the Bulls resting. Very simply, you don't back in to a gun fight.
• Now on to the Mets. On the plus side, seeing the Mets fight back from a large deficit to the Phillies was a nice change of pace from the last few seasons. The past few years a 7-0 deficit would already have had half the team with towels around their waist. Pagan started everything with his home run to left center, and the next time around the order, the momentum snowballed. Four consecutive hits capped by a double by Ike Davis got New York to within one, and Daniel Murphy knotted the game with a single just past the outstretched Jimmy Rollins. Unfortunately Boyer coughed up the lead the next inning, and the offense stagnated for the last 4 innings, but unlike the past few years, the team didn't fold and live to fight another day when it went down big. 
• On the negative side, Mike Pelfrey. When Pelfrey was going well last season, all of his negative body language and possible tips disappeared. The mouth guard was gone, there were no more nervous ticks in between pitches, just a very focused confident pitcher. So far this season, they're back, specifically the excessive hand licking. And they're back with good reason, because Pelfrey isn't confident with his stuff. He hasn't located well in either game, his two seam fastball is tailing back over the plate with worrisome consistency, and he very well may be the worst pitcher on the staff at this point. Hopefully Warthen can get Pelfrey back to producing ground balls with Fungo bat regularity, and he can round out a pitching staff that outside of himself has looked solid.