How to get NY on the road to the playoffs

After coming into this year with completely different expectations, the Giants and the Jets now share more than a stadium. Their identical 6-5 records make this the first year since 2003 where the New Year in New York could be devoid of playoff football. This crossroads has become familiar to both fan bases over the past 2 years, with different results. 

If you’re a Jets fan, recent history shows that this is the time of the year where Rex turns on the fasten seatbelt sign. After an extremely bumpy flight, there’s an ultimately successful landing in somewhere else besides the Meadowlands. Giants fans don’t harbor as fond of memories of winter football. Since 2008, Big Blue’s early season success has been followed by dramatic and very consistent late season swoons. A combined record of 8-9 in three years of post-Thanksgiving football has turned even the most vociferous Giants supporters into Tom Coughlin headhunters by the end of the regular season.

So, what do the Jets need to do to pull their season out of the fire, and what do the Giants need to do to prevent falling in? Let’s look at this one case at a time.

The Giants:

            Unlike a lot of Jets fans, I'm not a Giants hater. Every other football fan in my family rides with Big Blue, so if I talked shit about the Giants, I wouldn't be allowed at holidays or weddings. With a far superior quarterback at the helm, it really would appear on the surface that the Giants are in better shape than the Jets. But Monday night’s loss dealt a severe blow to their wild card hopes. Not only did it come against a team that they could be contending with for one of the wild card berths (the Saints are only one game clear of the Falcons in the NFC South), but it dropped their conference record to a paltry 3-6, with Green Bay coming up next week and two games against the division leading Cowboys on the horizon.

           

1)

If I’m a Giants fan, the last thing I want to see on Sunday is #27 lumbering out onto the field to re-enact last night’s episode of “The Walking Dead”. Jacobs’ strength in pass protection is equaled only by his inability to create yardage with the ball in his hands. It’s time for the Giants to try and hash together a running game with the other running backs on their roster.

 I know Scott very well; he was the running back at Maryland in my junior and senior year, and he’s like a high performance foreign car. When there are mechanical issues, it’s obvious, and there’s a huge decline in performance. But when everything is running correctly, Scott can put the defense in his rear view mirror in the blink of an eye. He may not be a permanent solution, but he’s a temporary spark plug for a running game that’s slogging along at just over 3 yards per carry.

 Now Ahmad Bradshaw should return relatively soon, but a foot injury for a running back is similar to a foot injury for a horse without the untimely ending. I think Jacobs should be used more in pass protection in the closing weeks, and Ware and Scott should make up the majority of the carries. Not only will it create the chance of a home run from the running back position, but a more effective running game will help elongate drives. Something that an already thin defensive unit will be very grateful for.

2)

The defensive blueprint needs to be scrapped at this point in favor of a more aggressive scheme. The strength of the team (a wealth of talented pass rushers) has now become a weakness due to a rash of injuries. Justin Tuck in particular has been hit hard, and has been a borderline nonfactor all season. It’s time to sit Tuck down. His explosive first step isn’t firing, and he was routinely handled by the Saints right tackle on Monday night.

It’s a calculated risk that Tom Coughlin and his staff have to take. If Tuck keeps playing, there is no way he will make it to the end of season as any semblance of the player he was the last few years. At this point, Tuck is a below average defensive end, so the Giants wouldn’t really be losing much by giving him a few weeks to recuperate. Better to try and weather the storm without him and hope he returns to form in a few weeks, than continue to sap his usefulness in his injury-riddled form.

The Giants will not get pressure on Aaron Rodgers with the standard 4 man rush that has yielded three sacks in as many games. Perry Fewell should look at the last time the Packers came to the Meadowlands (a 9-0 win over the Jets last year). LB David Harris had 3 QB hits and a sack, DB Dwight Lowery had a QB hit and a sack, and Aaron Rodgers was 15/34 for 170 yards. The Giants are going to have to take some risks to avoid a 4 game losing streak, and it should start with sacrificing coverage in favor of pressure.

New York Jets

Record: 6-5

I keep waiting for this team to get better. There wasn’t much turnover from 2010 to 2011, and yet the Jets haven’t been an elite football team for more than a week at a time. I’m still searching for answers as to why a Buffalo Bills team that had no answers for the Jets at home, came to the Meadowlands and outplayed them for four quarters.

            Mark Sanchez’s touchdowns will increase for the third straight year, but so will his interceptions. Bart Scott has been a name and nothing else this season, and his playing time has reflected that. The usually exceptional offensive line has been leaky at right tackle (expected) and left tackle (very unexpected). They are 1-5 against teams over .500. Sanchez was right in believing that if they continue to play as they have, they won’t be darkening anyone’s door in January.

1)

            I don’t know what his stamina is like at this point, but Aaron Maybin should be playing at least 80% of the plays on defense. Whether it’s at defensive end or linebacker, Maybin’s ability to get to the quarterback is something the Jets haven’t had consistently since John Abraham.

It allows the defense to rush only four or five and still get pressure, which is really the recipe to beating any good quarterback. The Jets only face one elite running back the rest of the year (LeSean McCoy), which should translate to plenty of passing downs for Maybin to showcase his edge rushing ability.

           

2)

            Although it may seem counterintuitive to the turnover margin, the Jets need to take more shots down the field. Mark Sanchez had 10 completions of 40 yards or more in 2010. This year, the only time Sanchez has completed one of those passes was on a screen to LT against the Raiders. When a team doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field, it allows a defense to cheat the safeties up, which creates two issues.

            The most obvious issue has been a steep drop off in run production. With almost the same personnel as last year, the Jets have not been able to dominate time of possession like they were renowned for doing. There is not a running back on the roster that is capable of creating something out of nothing.
            The other offshoot comes in the intermediate passing game, which becomes heavily clogged when teams realize they don’t need to devote over the top coverage to a deep receiver.Nowhere was this more obvious than last week against Buffalo. Corners jumped short routes with regularity, and it seemed like there was always a defender mere inches from every throw that was made. 

            Sanchez’s arm strength has never been described as elite, but in his first two years, he’s certainly shown that it’s more than adequate. His success rate may not be high on those deep throws, but even the threat of a deep ball can stretch out a defense.

There is a playoff correlation here too. In the last 5 years, 6 teams have made the playoffs with a QB completing less than 5 passes of 40 + yards. 4 of them lost the first playoff game they played. The other two were the 2007 San Diego Chargers and the 2009 Arizona Cardinals. Unless LaDainian Tomlinson rewinds time, or Mark Sanchez turns into a 66% passer, this Jets team will suffer the same fate if they even get into the playoffs.