Although I think it’s somewhat crazy that Verlander could win the award this year, while Pedro’s 2000 season (8.88 K/BB?!) didn’t, there’s no point in continuing a stupid precedent. Verlander may have hit the perfect storm this year, producing not only a dominant pitching season, but also having the only other legitimate candidates playing on two teams (the Yankees and the Red Sox).
Ellsbury and Gonzalez are the leaders for the Red Sox, and they represent two different types of ball players. Ellsbury is a fantastic lead off hitter who has shown a surprising amount of power to go with his always exceptional fielding and speed (36 SB). Gonzalez’s power numbers haven’t been as advertised, but his .341 average leads baseball, and his 103 RBI’s are second. These guys are going to steal votes from each other because although I think Gonzalez is the more important player for Boston, there’s a strong argument to be made for Ellsbury, which will lead to some stolen votes.
The Yankees have the league leader in home runs and RBI’s, which usually means the trophy has more or less already been delivered. But there are rotten parts of Granderson’s resume. He’s 3rd in the American League in strikeouts behind Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. He hits .248 with RISP (Ellsbury hits .347; Gonzalez .333). And although he’s stolen 24 bases, he’s not particularly efficient at it, considering he’s been caught 10 times. There’s no denying that he’s having a very good season, but those are a few things that prevent it from being truly great. Verlander surpassed very good a long time ago.
Probably the most overlooked important stat when it comes to Verlander is how he deep he goes into games. It’s because of this that the Tigers can limit their bullpen, which has been borderline awful this year (28th in baseball in percentage of inherited runners scored, 23rd in bullpen ERA). The Yankees bullpen has overwhelmingly better numbers. His closest competition at pitcher is CC, and there’s evidence that CC might be wearing down (August ERA: 4.68), whereas Verlander has still been outstanding in the midst of a pennant race (August ERA: 3.12). And the biggest blemish with CC is his 1-4 6.39 ERA vs Boston. Verlander’s ERA’s vs. New York (4.50), Texas (2.00), and Boston (1.72) show he’s at his best against the best.
As for Bautista, I like him, he’s on my fantasy team, but since the All-Star break, Edwin Encarnacion has better numbers across the board. Tough to vote somebody MVP of the league when, for half of the season, they’re the second most valuable player on their own team.
For the first half of this season, Jose Bautista was the undisputed best offensive player in baseball. But what I meant to say was, in the second half, Edwin Encarnacion has been a more valuable player to the Blue Jays than Bautista. The argument can definitely be made about Bautista’s defense, which I understand is valuable, but it’s just above average, not amazing.
To the naked eye, Bautista’s 2nd half line is .254/8/24 to Encarnacion’s .307/9/25. I know these measurements aren’t the most accurate, but it’s a start. Bautista’s 2nd half on-base percentage – a huge part of what makes him so valuable – is only 2 points higher than Encarnacion’s (.407 to .405), while Encarnacion’s slugging percentage is 58 points higher (.558 to .500).
The culprit is mainly a terrible stretch from July 14 to August 12 (.197, 2 HR, 20 K, 18 BB), but even his August numbers (.261, 8 HR, 17 RBI, .421 OBP, 24 BB, 26 K) just show him as a good player since the break, not an MVP worthy one in my opinion.
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