The first big ticket item to look at is Jason Bay. To say Jason Bay had a tough first year at Citi Field is to say Nicolas Cage has had a tough 2010 with the critics. Even before the concussion, Bay was a streaky contact hitter at best, and a strikeout machine at worst. Just like with Wright, it was apparent to anyone tuning in that Bay wasn’t right because of the constant self-administered tweaks to his batting stance. To be fair, Bay was switching from one of the most homer friendly parks at Fenway to a place where home run sightings come as frequently as big foot ones at Citistone National Park.
J-Bay just needs to know, no sane Mets fan has any delusions of him reaching his 36 homer mark of 2009. What we need is the old Jason Bay from Pittsburgh, who I always thought of as more of a doubles hitter with home run power. Bay apparently has gotten the message, returning to his more conventional closed stance instead of opening up and diving in with his left foot. Bay’s never been a prolific contact hitter, in fact his strike out rate is very high. But similar to Wright, his hot streaks can scorch the earth, and he is definitely capable of winning a three game series almost by himself.
Out of his 6 home runs last year, 4 were less than 400 feet, so it’s not like he was evoking memories of Mickey Mantle with his distance when he did go deep. One positive that came of playing in Citi Field was that it showed off some of Bay’s underrated speed; he tied his career high in triples, with 4 of them coming in Queens. What this team has is speed on the base paths, even the catcher can run, so home runs aren’t necessary. Bay is a prolific gap hitter who will have ample RBI opportunities with speed merchants such as Reyes, Pagan, and to a lesser extent Wright hitting in front of him. If he can accept that because of age and his surroundings he’s going to be more of a 20-25 home run a year guy, I think Jason Bay can not only have a bounce back year
It sounds absurd on the surface, but to make a cross-sport comparison, Carlos Beltran is kind of like a LeBron James. At his peak, Beltran was the golden standard: a true, complete 5 tool player. A gold glove given, with the highest stolen base success percentage of all time who could threaten 40 HR’s every year. But like with LeBron, despite knowing he was put on this earth to do what he does, you just have to wonder if greatness fleetingly found him, instead of vice versa.
LeBron had his moment of ascendance against the Pistons where he scored the Cavs’ last 29 points, Beltran had his dominant 2004 playoffs. In 12 games, he hit .435 with 8 HR’s, 14 RBI’s and 6 steals against Atlanta and St. Louis. The comparison isn’t perfect because of how much of an other-worldly athletic specimen LeBron is, but it’s closer than you think. At his peak, Beltran made everything on the diamond look SO easy, that he was regularly criticized for laziness and playing the game devoid of passion. What more you can ask from a 6 time all star is something I will never understand.
The arguments for him having a good season are viable. He’s nearly a year removed from knee surgery, and the Mets appear to be bringing him along relatively slowly. Absent the reports just being another mirage created by the somehow still employed Mets medical staff, it appears that this might be the first time Beltran will be truly healthy since 2008. The other is that Beltran is in the vaunted contract year, and will be a free agent at the end of the season. Whether the Mets resign him is a separate matter entirely, but a return to form at age 34 will earn him a significantly healthier payday from whatever suitors he has for his services at the end of the year.
But with Beltran, you just wonder with the injuries, the knee surgery fiasco, and his well-documented hot and cold streaks whether he can still shoulder the offensive load for stretches like he used to do when healthy. The fading of his formerly electric speed has forced a move to right field, and has all but neutered him on the base paths. Not to mention, Carlos has never exactly been one to play through injuries. If he’s hurt, he doesn’t have a problem sitting, and getting opinions from 20 different doctors at 20 different hospitals and then going to get 30 different procedures. The incentive for a new contract is still there, but assuming he hasn’t encountered daunting financial difficulties (and with the Mets, you really never know), he’s probably doing just fine in the money department.
So will 2011 be Beltran’s renaissance? I say no, with the sincere hope that I’m wrong. His knees are balky to start the year, and at age 34, I think even at 100%, to expect even a 20-20 season at this point may be hoping for a little too much. Beltran may surprise early, but the days of him putting a team on his back are well behind him, and even if he doesn’t start the season on the DL, I believe he’ll end on it. I don’t think his ego can take having to deal with missing a few tools in his formerly full belt.
No comments:
Post a Comment