Jets/Knicks Weekend Notes

For the past six years, Brian Schottenheimer has been a schizophrenic of an offensive coordinator, and nowhere was that more evident than on Saturday. The first drive of a the game was Schotty at his best: a flawless 10 play 52 yard march that finished in a manner befitting of his contract extension (an uncovered touchdown pass). The first quarter jinx appeared a distant memory, and the Jets looked well on the way to dismantling a below average Giants defense.

And then…nothing. No continuity, no innovation, and most importantly no points for the better part of three quarters. Schotty obstinately stuck to the air on a day where Sanchez couldn’t even get the landing gear up. From halftime on, the Jets played with their hair on fire and refused to even acknowledge what had been a successful ground game (4.2 yards per carry). All things considered, the defense may have played their best game of the season considering the amount of time they spent on the field due to the offense’s blink-of-an-eye drives.

Rumors of Schottenheimer’s firing would give some closure to Jets fans that want to know the answer to the chicken or the egg question with the offense. Namely, was the offensive ineptitude this year more due to a subpar play caller, or a backup quarterback masquerading as a starter?

If Schottenheimer were to be axed, the logical next head on the chopping block will be the much-debated quarterback. This team has now spent three years trying to construct this offense around Mark Sanchez with the results being average at best. I really want to like Sanchez, he looks and talks like a quarterback, and occasionally he even plays like one (especially in the playoffs). But in his third year, there are too many days like Saturday where he’s as accurate as a drunken skeet shooter. Even though his personal stats point to an incremental improvement, anyone who’s watched the Jets this year have seen a QB who has squandered some dominant defensive games with awful individual performances.  

Assuming that everything doesn’t fall perfectly for the Jets on Sunday, they’ll go into the offseason looking to build around Sanchez one last time. A new offensive coordinator is necessary, along with a new right tackle, and in my opinion a new second receiver (the receivers inability to get separation has erased the downfield passing game. As different as Plax and Santonio look in the mirror, their skill sets match up almost completely).

Wins will definitely help next year, but it would re-instill confidence to see Sanchez dictate some games. Long drives to keep a Super Bowl-caliber defense fresh would be a sight for sore eyes. So would a quarterback that doesn’t run hot and cold like a Katy Perry song. I hope Sanchez thrives in an offense that better suits him. But if he doesn’t show major improvements, it’s time to consider that maybe no matter how many tailors are brought in, he’ll just never wear it well.

 After watching one offense burn itself to ashes on Saturday, it was a relief to see one lit brightly on Sunday. For all of the Knicks struggles in their opening game, Amar’e was exceptionally efficient, and Melo was still the game’s premiere late game assassin. I respect the argument that the Celtics best player wasn’t on the floor Sunday, but I don’t think there’s one damn person in the NBA - past or present – capable of guarding Carmelo Anthony when he’s feeling it. His ability to block out any distraction, mental or physical, is consistently amazing.

But for all of their offensive talents, the two superstars aren’t known as the best or most willing passers. The issue was that on Sunday, they unquestionably were. Toney Douglas was average in all aspects of stewarding the offense, and never even flashed the ability to make an incisive pass for an easy bucket. Considering Iman Shumpert is now relegated to rehab, and my opinion of the lead footed Mike Bibby hasn’t changed, plenty of weight will be on the backs of the two stars until another one heals.  

The Knicks showcased just how good they can be (the firepower bordered on nuclear in the first quarter) and how quickly it can all turn ugly (the baby pool depth was exposed in the third when a tentative Stoudemire choked off an already sputtering offense) all in the course of 48 minutes. The defense was much improved…until the big names accumulated fouls, and willingly handcuffed themselves. Landry Fields looked much more comfortable in the offense…until he missed two shots and made like Harry Houdini.

Just like last year, nobody will know exactly what the Knicks are for at least a few months. In Baron Davis, the Knicks could be returning a potential All-Star quality point guard who can not only facilitate the flow of the offense, but also assume primary or secondary scoring responsibilities when the Big Two are off the floor. Until then, this is a team that will rise and fall with the shooting percentages of Melo and STAT. 

Knicks Preview Part 3: Are you ready for the fun part? Because this is the Fun Part.

I hated writing the last part of this preview, because it's depressing to write about the negative aspects of my teams. I’m not oblivious to the issues that the Jets and Knicks have, they’re exposed on a regular basis. But I’m usually not masochistic enough to pour salt in my own wound. After bad losses (and I can’t remember a good one) I generally go on a sports-free cleanse for 2-3 days. No Sportscenter, no sports websites, and unless I’m more angry than bummed out, no writing.

But, now that the formality of mentioning the Knicks terrible bench is out of the way, it’s time to remind everyone that the biggest issue facing the Knicks is just that: the bench. The backcourt does have questions, but remember when the answer was Chris Duhon? Or having to hope that Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry could mesh? Next time you see someone, remind them that the Knicks frontline is better than theirs, because for the first time in franchise history, it’s true for the entire league.

Just to put in perspective how unique of a pairing Amar’e and Carmelo are, here are all of the teammates that have combined for 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 45% shooting (sorry Antoine Walker) over the past 10 years.

Year	Teammate #1	Teammate #2	Result
2000-2001 - LAL	Shaq (29/13/57%)	Kobe (29/6/46%)	NBA Champion
2000-2001 - SAC	Webber (27/11/48%)	Stojakovic (20/6/47%)	W Conf Finals
2001-2002 – LAL	Shaq (27/11/58%)	Kobe (25/6/47%)	NBA Champion
2002-2003 – LAL	Kobe (30/7/45%)	Shaq (28/11/57%)	W Conf Semis
2004-2005 – MIA	Wade (24/5/48%)	Shaq (23/10/60%)	E Conf Finals
2005-2006 – MIA	Wade (27/6/50%)	Shaq (20/9/60%)	NBA Champion
2006-2007 – LAL	Kobe (32/6/46%)	Odom (16/10/47%)	W Conf 1 round
2009-2010 – LAL	Kobe (27/5/46%)	Gasol (18/11/54%)	NBA Champion
2009-2010 – CLE	LeBron (30/7/50%)	A. Jamison (16/8/49%)	E Conf Semis
2010-2011 – NYK	Carmelo (26/7/46%)	Amar’e (25/8/50%)	E Conf 1 round

            Whether you’d like to take this with a grain of salt, or toss the shaker over your shoulder is up to you. Every single one of these teams made the playoffs, and four of them got parades. The question asked ad naseum by analysts is “can Amar’e and Carmelo co-exist even though they both need the ball?” If you force two geniuses to work towards a common task, they will eventually find a way to combine their prodigious talents. Both of them have individual accolades stacked head high, now all they have left to do is brand themselves into the brains of basketball junkies worldwide with a title in a city that is famished for one. 

            Carmelo’s game is as smooth as his name, and he has done a good job shaving down any rough edges over the years. After starting his career laying bricks from beyond the arc (3 of his first 4 years were under 30%), his percentage has increased 3 of the last 4 years to a career-high 38% in 2010. He’s morphed from an underwhelming rebounder, to an occasionally dominant one (18 double doubles last year). That new facet to his game is just another way for an already exceptional offensive player to put the ball in the bucket.

With those improvements, there’s a good argument that Carmelo has the most complete offensive game in the NBA . When he’s having an off shooting day, he stacks up cheap points with hard nosed rebounding and dead-eye foul shooting. When Melo is on, he collects scalps. A 29 point effort against LeBron last year was only mildly impressive when compared to his embarrassing of Andre Iguodala in Philadelphia, and complete evisceration of Paul Pierce in Game 2 of the conference quarterfinals. And that’s without mentioning his uncanny ability to roll the closing credits at the end of games.

            All that’s left for Melo to do is spread the wealth a little more with his 1a, Amar’e. Although his vision is usually focused on the hoop, Carmelo sees the rest of the court very well. The issue is not whether he and Amar’e will share the ball, it’s how well they’ll do it. The two of them started to connect on a few great passes last year, and if that continues, theycould lay waste to defenses all year long.  

            There were 8 players in the NBA last year that averaged 20 points a game, and shot over 50% from the field. The list includes four regular season MVP nominees (LeBron, Dwight, Dirk, Wade), the rookie of the year (Blake Griffin), one of the MVP’s of the postseason (Zach Randolph), the most underrated player in the NBA (LaMarcus Aldridge) and Amar'e Stoudemire.

STAT has range out to the 3-point line and beyond (10/23 from 3 last year), and when he’s completely healthy, borders on unguardable at the power forward spot (unless there’s something you’d like to say about that Kevin.) He’s capable of erasing a shot or two every once in a while, but is otherwise a marginal defender. Fortunately, his game meshes eerily perfectly with the new tower that will be standing next to him.  

            The Chandler acquisition shows that Mike D’Antoni’s recent confidence is shared by the front office. Within the past two years, the Knicks have transformed from a payroll-bloated punch line to a team that has pieces in place to compete for an NBA championship, and this move reflected that transformation.

            My biggest thought on the Chandler signing was that it ensures the Knicks will get plenty more miles out of Amare’s knees. As opposed to having to drive over rocky terrain all season (guarding the Boshs, Boozers, and worst of all Howards of the world) he’ll have smooth travel on defense guarding the second best big on the floor night in and night out.

            Chandler is a player that all of the perimeter defenders can feel comfortable funneling their man to. He is not only a great individual defender, but a leader the caliber of Kevin Garnett in his ability to quarterback the defense, and hedge out on screens. His presence on the court will be a shot of life to a team that was sorely in need of one.

I’ll close my thoughts on Chandler with this. If the Knicks had brought in Chris Paul, it certainly would have sold out the Garden for the foreseeable future. But the addition of Tyson Chandler gives them a better chance to sell out the Canyon of Heroes. The last 10 NBA champions have all ranked in top 10 in field goal percentage defense, allowing an average of 43.3% opponents field goal percentage. Last year the Knicks tied for 26^th in the NBA in field goal percentage defense (47.2%). Chris Paul would have provided a beautiful product for fans to watch, but wouldn’t have addressed the elephant in the room (lackadaisical defense). Chandler may not be a cure-all for that issue, but he’ll certainly prove more of an antidote than Paul ever would have.

And just a quick note on Baron Davis, whose first name has legally been changed to “Motivated”. Baron represents the possibility for having a talent advantage at three spots on the floor against the majority of the NBA, which should say all you need to know about the correlation between his play and this team’s title chances. At 32, Baron's athleticism may no longer be explosive, but it should still be present, along with his top flight strength. The criticisms on his conditioning have certainly been valid, but he's just a year removed from averaging 15 and 8 when his best teammate was balding ADD-posterchild Chris Kaman. 

Worst case scenario, the bulging disc in his back never totally heals, and the Knicks are left with a stiff, out of shape, questionable shooter (32% career 3-point shooter) coming off the bench. Best-case scenario, Baron is a top 5 point guard in the eastern conference, shows off some of his elite-level passing, and shaves his beard at the end of the season; on top of a float. 

Knicks Preview Part 2: The Important Part(s) Missing

There is no hard and fast template on how to win an NBA title. But every single champion in recent memory has one thing in common: a great system of unheralded understudies, a strong bench. Most have followed one of two schools of carpentry: assembling a wealth of above average talent that complements the team’s strength, or a super sub or two to carry the second unit.

Detroit won a championship with one of the better (and deeper) overall benches in recent memory. San Antonio brought in battle-tested veterans Robert Horry and Michael Finley. Boston’s stingy defense was bolstered by lockdown subs Tony Allen, Leon Powe, and James Posey. Dallas stored packets of instant offense on their bench with JJ Barea, Shawn Marion, and Peja Stojakovic.  

The spokesmen for the super sub method are Lamar Odom, Manu Ginobili, and Jason Terry. All three started less than half of the games during every championship run their respective teams made, but they were capable of carrying a subpar second unit with their outstanding individual talents.

By this logic, the ideal Knicks bench would have either a bevy of outside shooters to keep the offensive juice flowing, or one exceptional scorer with an ability to shoulder the load in the event that Carmelo and Stoudemire both have to come out of the game. Instead, the bench has an identity crisis, with seemingly no continuity between the pieces assembled. One way past his prime veteran, an offensive abomination, and a great shooter except when he isn’t (0-11, really?!) coming right up.

Mike Bibby:

            I keep trying to convince myself into the Bibby signing. He’s a cheap former all-star with playoff experience. But there are just so many questions with signing a 13-year veteran who was an average distributor and a bad defender IN HIS PRIME. At this point in his career, Bibby has one trick (shooting the three), and plenty of red flags.

FUN FACT: In the past 5 seasons, Mike Bibby’s average rank AMONG POINT GUARDS in assists per game is 23^rd.

 MORE FUN FACT: Bibby’s average rank amongst his peers in Assist to Turnover ratio is 20^th.

If this were an Eddie House in Boston situation where Bibby was being asked to come off the bench and nuke the offense while the starters rested, I’d be a lot more optimistic. But he’s being brought in as the legitimate back up point guard for this team, even though the skills that made him an effective point guard (his ability to run the fast break with the Kings, and outstanding free throw shooting) disappeared a long time ago.

One of the things that makes a great point guard is the ability to make the right decision after penetrating. Bibby hasn’t gotten close enough to the basket to prove he can be a good passer in years. He would be an OK pick up for a few teams as a spot up shooter, not as a point guard (care to comment, Miami fans?). If he’s the backup point guard this season, there will be even more pressure on Toney Douglas to keep the old shell of Mike Bibby on the bench more than on the floor.

Jared Jeffries:

            It amazes me that Jeffries shows up on the bench at some point every year, despite being the antithesis of everything Mike D’Antoni wants in a player. Maybe Mike keeps thinking it’s Channing Frye and he’s waiting for the MonStars to give his talent back.

            Jeffries’ offense is so inconceivably putrid that I’ve had a tough time coming up with a good way to relate it to non-Knick and non-basketball fans alike. Bringing him into a game is like the bizarro version of pulling the goalie in hockey. When Jared Jeffries comes into a game, you are hoping to improve your defense while completely sacrificing whatever spot he is playing on offense. It’s an upside-down power play, or a designated fielder.  

            I think Mike Woodson might have the good sense to place him in his natural habitat this year: the press. Jeffries is PERFECT for the press: an extremely agile long-limbed player who can guard almost every position on the floor unless he gets pushed around. A Jeffries-Shumpert press would be like trying to bring the ball up against Mr. Fantastic and Dhalsim from Street Fighter. It would provide a whole new dimension to the Knicks defense. Otherwise, Jeffries is about a useful as a three-legged chair (without a jump shot).

Bill Walker:

            When I watched ABC Camp highlight tapes, Bill Walker was an athletic freak of nature. I would say those days are long gone, but they aren’t. Walker’s 24, meaning those tapes are from only about 6 years ago. Nevertheless, Billy’s knees have been hacked up like a Thanksgiving turkey at this point, which has left him with an incomplete puzzle of the talent he used to possess.

            Walker’s career is now a cruel trick. He’s a phenomenal in game dunker with no way of getting to the basket, because his movement is as poor laterally as it is great vertically. On the other end, he can get up to block some shots, but is a revolving door on the perimeter. The secret on Walker is that he’s developed a sneaky great touch from the outside (of players that took at least 100 3’s in 2009, he had the 9^th best 3 point percentage).

            Really what walker represents to me is a poor man’s Shawne Williams (somebody the Knicks really need to resign).

The rest of the bench isn’t really worth dedicating a full page to. Former first round pick Renaldo Balkman (see Isiah’s not a great drafter all the time) is accurately described as a possible 10^th man by John Hollinger. I don’t know who Chris Hunter is. I know Devin Green better for having a documentary about him than being a 29 year-old undrafted journeyman. Josh Harrelson will make more of an impact modeling Wrangler’s new “cut-off” line than on the court. In case you were wondering, THIS IS FAR FROM A PLAYOFF CALIBER BENCH.

Best-case scenario: nobody gets hurt and the starters manage to stay out of foul trouble. Worst-case scenario: one of the big three does get hurt (Stoudemire would probably be the most unfortunate) and this team takes a nosedive.

The Knicks would be wise to deal with Williams & Williams (Shawne and Reggie). Both were long range-gunners last season (30^th and 9^th in 3 point percentage respectively), which would help prevent teams from packing the paint against the daunting duo of Stoudemire and Chandler. Shawne brings the added ability to guard 3’s and 4’s effectively. Also, I’d like to wake up Christmas morning with a backup point guard who can perform point guard-ly duties. I’ll get back to the Knicks great starting 5 tomorrow, but know this: The Knicks will make the playoffs because of their starters, but they’ll lose because of their bench. 

Knicks Preview Part 1: The Post-Grads in the back court

With the ink officially dry on Tyson Chandler’s $56 million dollar contract, the Knicks now have one of the more talented and versatile front courts in all of basketball. His addition addresses some perceived weaknesses (toughness, interior defense) and completely eradicates others (rebounding). If the truly BIG three manage to stay healthy for the compacted season, it’s safe to say they won’t be the culprits for another banner-less season at the Garden.

            The weak spot of this team now lies in the backcourt, where optimists see potential, pessimists don’t see a point guard, and everyone with eyes sees inexperience. Save for elder statesmen and resident defensive statue Mike Bibby, the Knicks rotation will rely heavily on three guards with a combined three years of experience. With the chips stacked high in the front court, the Knicks bet for a championship now rests on a few long shots they acquired in the past two years.

            The occasional intrusion from Bibby won’t change the reality that the Knicks created once they freed themselves of Chauncey Billups’ contract. Toney Douglas will be the ringmaster of the show at the World’s Most Famous Arena. I’ve been steadfast in my support of Douglas, and I still think he’s in the process of really learning how to play point guard for the first time in his career. Considering he was the seminal source of offense for Florida State, it’s a safe bet that Toney has been a primary offensive option since at least high school.

            But there are indicators that Douglas is due for a career year at the point. The small sample would be his 9 starts last year where he shot 52% from the floor and averaged 5.7 assists. A larger one would include his numbers post-Melo trade, which improved in nearly every area (in those 28 games he averaged 4.5 assists to 1.2 turnovers, while shooting 43% from downtown). Obviously, those numbers will be difficult to sustain with increased minutes, but I believe Douglas' post-trade play was more foreshadowing than mirage.

Most importantly, his assist to turnover ratio was an astounding 3.73, which would rank him among the most efficient point guards in the league over a course of a full season. That number will regress as he attempts a higher quantity of more difficult passes this season, but it should stay well over 3. I wouldn’t trade Toney Douglas for Jamal Crawford, and I definitely wouldn’t even consider a swap for JJ Barea. Douglas has all the raw tools to be a great point guard, and by the end of the year the Knicks will not have to address the point guard problem, because there won’t be one.

If I wasn’t completely convinced Landry Fields’ stay in New York was just going to be a layover, there would be a 6 on my Knicks jersey instead of a 1. For a guy whose name prompted groans and Google searches throughout the entirety of New York on draft night, Fields proved to be one of the better draft values in Knicks history. He rightfully has a reputation as a hard worker, which manifested itself in several areas.

Regarded as an average shooter in college, Fields’ percentages saw major jumps in his rookie year. His 49.7 field goal percentage was 5^th amongst all shooting guards, and his 39.3 three point percentage made him a reliable kick out option in D’Antoni’s three heavy offense. Most notably, Fields proved himself very un-shooting guard like in his willingness to do the dirty work. At season’s end, he was tied with Dwyane Wade as the best rebounding guard in the NBA last year.

The logical prediction this year is for a Fields regression, and I won’t try and say that he’ll make the leap to star status. But thinking Fields will simply fade into the bench would be discounting all of the work that he’s already done. Fields’ number may never threaten the rafters anywhere, but I see him settling in as the Knicks version of Tayshaun Prince.

Both Fields and Douglas have previous NBA experience to draw upon when predicting their futures. The same cannot be said of rookie Iman Shumpert whose resume is a long list of daunting questions. What position should he play? Can he shoot? Will he create more turnovers on defense or offense? Shumpert is sushi-raw; the floor is Gerald Green, the ceiling is Andre Iguodala.

If D’Antoni were a chef, Shumpert would be the nicest raw ingredient there is. There is no limit to what can be done with it, he just needs to know what steps to take to make it sing. The staff will have some work to do untangling the knots that Shumpert developed under Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech. But in a league full of the world’s best athletes, Shumpert’s measureables stand alone near the top of the heap, highlighted by his unrelenting on-ball defense. but there’s so much potential left to unlock.

D’Antoni has a history of cold-shouldering young players in favor of veterans, but it would be unwise neglect a talent this prodigious. By all accounts, Shumpert’s jump shot has shown signs of thawing, and his great defense is the mark of someone willing to work hard to improve their game. This year I’m expecting Trevor Ariza reincarnate, albeit slightly smaller. A lightly used role player with outstanding defense and the capability of sending the Garden into a frenzy with some awe-inspiring finishes.  

           

Quick Predictions:

-        Douglas is going to be somewhat frustrating out of the gates. The combination of his first year starting and the brevity of training camp will give him some headaches. But his terrific defense and outside shooting should keep him above water until he acclimates himself completely. Mark my words, there will be games this year that you won’t care that the Knicks lost out on Chris Paul.

        

     Fields will get the majority of the minutes at the 2. His stats may not jump off the page (with the exception of rebounding), but watch for some subtle improvements or new areas to his game. Maybe more accurate passing, or an increased willingness to take his man off the dribble. In Conclusion, the numbers may not look a lot better, but the player will.

-       The majority of Shumpert’s minutes will be at the 2, and he’ll be Jekyll and Hyde throughout the course of games. The turnovers and jumpers will be ugly at times, but his Kevlar tight defense of opposing guards and nitro boosters in his legs will make those moments ultimately forgivable.

-       Mike Woodson will at some point employ an awesome press of Douglas and Shumpert with Jeffries roaming against some guard deficient teams and make their life getting over half court a living hell.

One more rant, because Jose Reyes to the Marlins deserves it

I’ve brought this situation up to a lot of people in the past few weeks, that I believe the Wilpons are the worst owners in sports. There is now nothing that can convince me otherwise, because I can’t recall any other owners sitting on a gold mine like Jose Reyes, and taking a dump on it.

It’s funny, because it’s been a long time since I’ve felt this passionately about the Mets. These past few seasons have been majority listless with the Mets playing purgatory baseball. But the World Series, Wainright’s wicked curve ball, and the collapses are all in the past, buried beneath Shea’s Technicolor seats and sub-health code rest rooms. This is an all-together more disheartening type of anger.

To the fans of other teams, I can’t really explain the feeling of watching your franchise player leave while your front office stares defiantly in the other direction without offering so much as a handshake. The same front office that placated your worries that this EXACT SITUATION would happen during the season. To put it bluntly, it makes you wonder why you root for a team run by such clueless fucking people.

Any time as a fan you need to talk about the business behind sports, it’s never good, and with the Mets, it’s become an all too common occurrence. In fact, the only time that I (or anyone for that matter) wasn’t talking about the business side of the Mets this season was when Reyes was the NL MVP at the All-Star Break. When it became official to everyone my age that he was in the middle of the best season we had seen in Flushing. Through all of the bullshit, he made it exciting to watch Mets games every day.

And most importantly, whether you believed that the team should trade him to rebuild, or keep him because you couldn’t bare to watch him play somewhere else, he represented the most important thing a fan has: hope.

Hope on the smaller scale, that when the leadoff spot rolled around, the dinged up borderline impotent Mets offense would get a jolt of life. And hope on the larger scale too. Hope that regardless of how deep the Wilpons were in the hole, that eventually this team would turn it around, and however they did it, it would relate to Reyes.

Well Mets fans, whatever side of the fence you were on with Reyes is now moot. Every single argument that you got in about whether the Mets should sell high on a mercurial talent, or rebuild the team around their most exciting and marketable player was a waste of breath. Because the team didn’t sell high, and they didn’t reinvest. What they did was spend a full year watching the best, most exciting Met since Darryl Strawberry go through a career year the likes of which few players ever are lucky enough to experience, and then let his contract expire. If that sentence doesn’t piss you off, you should probably lay off the painkillers. 

I hope Reyes puts together more dominant seasons in Florida, and I hope he rips triples in the gaps every time he walks into Citi Field. And it’s for a number of reasons. A lot of it is because I liked watching Reyes play baseball more than any player since Ken Griffey Jr. But what it really is – and I want to know if other Mets fans feel this way – is that after all of the bullshit they’ve put this team through, I just want to see the Wilpons fail. 

How to get NY on the road to the playoffs

After coming into this year with completely different expectations, the Giants and the Jets now share more than a stadium. Their identical 6-5 records make this the first year since 2003 where the New Year in New York could be devoid of playoff football. This crossroads has become familiar to both fan bases over the past 2 years, with different results. 

If you’re a Jets fan, recent history shows that this is the time of the year where Rex turns on the fasten seatbelt sign. After an extremely bumpy flight, there’s an ultimately successful landing in somewhere else besides the Meadowlands. Giants fans don’t harbor as fond of memories of winter football. Since 2008, Big Blue’s early season success has been followed by dramatic and very consistent late season swoons. A combined record of 8-9 in three years of post-Thanksgiving football has turned even the most vociferous Giants supporters into Tom Coughlin headhunters by the end of the regular season.

So, what do the Jets need to do to pull their season out of the fire, and what do the Giants need to do to prevent falling in? Let’s look at this one case at a time.

The Giants:

            Unlike a lot of Jets fans, I'm not a Giants hater. Every other football fan in my family rides with Big Blue, so if I talked shit about the Giants, I wouldn't be allowed at holidays or weddings. With a far superior quarterback at the helm, it really would appear on the surface that the Giants are in better shape than the Jets. But Monday night’s loss dealt a severe blow to their wild card hopes. Not only did it come against a team that they could be contending with for one of the wild card berths (the Saints are only one game clear of the Falcons in the NFC South), but it dropped their conference record to a paltry 3-6, with Green Bay coming up next week and two games against the division leading Cowboys on the horizon.

           

1)

If I’m a Giants fan, the last thing I want to see on Sunday is #27 lumbering out onto the field to re-enact last night’s episode of “The Walking Dead”. Jacobs’ strength in pass protection is equaled only by his inability to create yardage with the ball in his hands. It’s time for the Giants to try and hash together a running game with the other running backs on their roster.

 I know Scott very well; he was the running back at Maryland in my junior and senior year, and he’s like a high performance foreign car. When there are mechanical issues, it’s obvious, and there’s a huge decline in performance. But when everything is running correctly, Scott can put the defense in his rear view mirror in the blink of an eye. He may not be a permanent solution, but he’s a temporary spark plug for a running game that’s slogging along at just over 3 yards per carry.

 Now Ahmad Bradshaw should return relatively soon, but a foot injury for a running back is similar to a foot injury for a horse without the untimely ending. I think Jacobs should be used more in pass protection in the closing weeks, and Ware and Scott should make up the majority of the carries. Not only will it create the chance of a home run from the running back position, but a more effective running game will help elongate drives. Something that an already thin defensive unit will be very grateful for.

2)

The defensive blueprint needs to be scrapped at this point in favor of a more aggressive scheme. The strength of the team (a wealth of talented pass rushers) has now become a weakness due to a rash of injuries. Justin Tuck in particular has been hit hard, and has been a borderline nonfactor all season. It’s time to sit Tuck down. His explosive first step isn’t firing, and he was routinely handled by the Saints right tackle on Monday night.

It’s a calculated risk that Tom Coughlin and his staff have to take. If Tuck keeps playing, there is no way he will make it to the end of season as any semblance of the player he was the last few years. At this point, Tuck is a below average defensive end, so the Giants wouldn’t really be losing much by giving him a few weeks to recuperate. Better to try and weather the storm without him and hope he returns to form in a few weeks, than continue to sap his usefulness in his injury-riddled form.

The Giants will not get pressure on Aaron Rodgers with the standard 4 man rush that has yielded three sacks in as many games. Perry Fewell should look at the last time the Packers came to the Meadowlands (a 9-0 win over the Jets last year). LB David Harris had 3 QB hits and a sack, DB Dwight Lowery had a QB hit and a sack, and Aaron Rodgers was 15/34 for 170 yards. The Giants are going to have to take some risks to avoid a 4 game losing streak, and it should start with sacrificing coverage in favor of pressure.

New York Jets

Record: 6-5

I keep waiting for this team to get better. There wasn’t much turnover from 2010 to 2011, and yet the Jets haven’t been an elite football team for more than a week at a time. I’m still searching for answers as to why a Buffalo Bills team that had no answers for the Jets at home, came to the Meadowlands and outplayed them for four quarters.

            Mark Sanchez’s touchdowns will increase for the third straight year, but so will his interceptions. Bart Scott has been a name and nothing else this season, and his playing time has reflected that. The usually exceptional offensive line has been leaky at right tackle (expected) and left tackle (very unexpected). They are 1-5 against teams over .500. Sanchez was right in believing that if they continue to play as they have, they won’t be darkening anyone’s door in January.

1)

            I don’t know what his stamina is like at this point, but Aaron Maybin should be playing at least 80% of the plays on defense. Whether it’s at defensive end or linebacker, Maybin’s ability to get to the quarterback is something the Jets haven’t had consistently since John Abraham.

It allows the defense to rush only four or five and still get pressure, which is really the recipe to beating any good quarterback. The Jets only face one elite running back the rest of the year (LeSean McCoy), which should translate to plenty of passing downs for Maybin to showcase his edge rushing ability.

           

2)

            Although it may seem counterintuitive to the turnover margin, the Jets need to take more shots down the field. Mark Sanchez had 10 completions of 40 yards or more in 2010. This year, the only time Sanchez has completed one of those passes was on a screen to LT against the Raiders. When a team doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field, it allows a defense to cheat the safeties up, which creates two issues.

            The most obvious issue has been a steep drop off in run production. With almost the same personnel as last year, the Jets have not been able to dominate time of possession like they were renowned for doing. There is not a running back on the roster that is capable of creating something out of nothing.
            The other offshoot comes in the intermediate passing game, which becomes heavily clogged when teams realize they don’t need to devote over the top coverage to a deep receiver.Nowhere was this more obvious than last week against Buffalo. Corners jumped short routes with regularity, and it seemed like there was always a defender mere inches from every throw that was made. 

            Sanchez’s arm strength has never been described as elite, but in his first two years, he’s certainly shown that it’s more than adequate. His success rate may not be high on those deep throws, but even the threat of a deep ball can stretch out a defense.

There is a playoff correlation here too. In the last 5 years, 6 teams have made the playoffs with a QB completing less than 5 passes of 40 + yards. 4 of them lost the first playoff game they played. The other two were the 2007 San Diego Chargers and the 2009 Arizona Cardinals. Unless LaDainian Tomlinson rewinds time, or Mark Sanchez turns into a 66% passer, this Jets team will suffer the same fate if they even get into the playoffs.  

Fred Wilpon is trying to kill the Mets fan base

This has been an all-time "don't watch Sportscenter" week for me. The Jets were a complete mess from start to finish in their biggest game of the season. The NBA is about as relevant as the ABA at this point. But bar none the most frustrating thing is that the Mets are in the midst of losing the best player they’ve had in 25 years for essentially nothing. No prospects in return, no high round compensatory draft picks: nothing.

The Mets had a full season to decide what to do with Reyes. Although there were clearly several offshoots involving, there were two schools of thought on how to deal with the Reyes situation: keep him around and hope he has enough of a connection to the team to resign at a discount, or use his astronomical trade value to fatten up a thin minor league system.

At the beginning of the year, I wrote that I favored the latter. I don’t think anybody was delusional enough to think that a team with a rotation anchored by Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey was one capable of making a playoff run. With the right trading partner, the Mets would have been able to name AT LEAST one A-list prospect, and maybe two or three more high level players. It would have closed the book on an exciting but underperforming era of Mets baseball, and addressed the primary long term need that every team has: developing the minor league system. 

The other option that appealed to more sentimental fans was to wait the season out, and break the less than considerable bank for Reyes. There were a lot of flaws to this plan. Outside of financial constraints, Reyes’ stock tanked due to leg injuries in the second half. By the end of the season, he was considered more of a risky high-end investment than a franchise player. However, Reyes connects to Mets fans in a way that no player I've ever seen has. He's an exciting, charismatic homegrown superstar, which is just the type of player that develops loyalty in a fan base. 

Obviously, the Mets appeared to take the second route. But as the weeks passed by after the season ended, and meetings transgressed between Reyes’ people and the Mets, there were no whispers of a concrete offer. Instead, the team frittered away their time to try and convince Reyes to return to a place that he admittedly loves, and let other suitors get involved.

What really gets me though is the lack of any sort of plan. I have been a fan of a team with inept ownership, but I never doubted that they cared about winning. James Dolan has made some indefensibly awful decisions as the owner of the Knicks. In hindsight, signing Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph looks preposterous, but Isaiah Thomas explained that the team was trying to get bigger when everyone else was getting smaller. Did it work? No. But although the results were poor, the idea to improve was there.

So let me put a question to any Mets fan or baseball fan reading this: how does this process with Reyes show that the Mets care about getting better? They aren’t looking short term (signing free agents) or long term (trading Reyes and Wright and starting over). The Mets are no longer a team to the Wilpons, they are an asset, and one that the owners apparently have no intention of improving.

Jose Reyes represented the best chance this team had to improve, whether he was playing for them or traded somewhere else. And they did nothing with him. They’re not getting exciting prospects in return for him. They’re not getting his contract off the books so they can position themselves for a run at a free agent pitcher. They are simply slashing payroll because the owners are hemorrhaging money.

Maybe all of the Miami talk is just posturing, and Sandy Alderson is playing his cards inside his vest. But if the Mets lose Reyes for nothing, it is a slap in the face to a proud fan base that has sat through two of the most brutal collapses I’ve been witness to in any sport. It will say that until the Wilpons have cleared their desks out, there is no point in rooting for this team, because the Wilpons aren’t interested in giving you something to root for. 

#3 - Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Why It’s this High:

The epicenter of college basketball shifts along Tobacco Road from Durham to Chapel Hill. As opposed to just about every rivalry I've listed so far, this one is the unquestioned alpha dog in its sport. No rational person can argue against North Carolina-Duke, a long running rivalry between two power programs that have really upped it to another level since the dawn of the millennium. Collectively, they have owned one of the most talented conferences in the country.

Duke holds a 14-9 edge since 2001, and an even slimmer 9-8 advantage since the hire of Roy Williams in 2003. Each team has won 2 national championships within the past 10 years, and they have respectively dominated the ACC regular season (UNC has finished with the conference’s best record 6 of the past 10 years) and postseason (Duke has won the conference tournament an astounding 8 times in 10 years). 

What makes college basketball rivalries the most unique is that for the most part, they remain unchanged for years because of the coaches. Every coach in the country has a style that they prefer to run. Jim Calhoun USUALLY likes to play an extremely physical style of basketball, with an anchor in the paint on defense (Okafor, Thabeet, Adrien) and a shooter on the wing (Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton, Denham Brown). Calipari's dribble drive offense eschews pinpoint shooting for over the top athleticism, and routinely draws in top point guards. Just like those two coaches, Williams and Krzyzewski have been successful enough to have their pick of high school seniors, and tailor their selections to their respective coaching styles. 

It’s no secret that Roy likes to run and that his first priority is lighting up the scoreboard (from 2003 to 2009, the Tar Heels ranked an average of 4^th in scoring offense), so he populates the team accordingly. It’s usually a safe bet to assume that the Tar Heels will be lead by a grease fire fast point guard (Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson), some hyper athletic bigs (Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, John Henson), and the occasional dead-eye shooter to spread the floor (Wayne Ellington, Rashad McCants). UNC always seems to be a step ahead on the recruiting trail, probably because Williams’ style is more fun to play. But he puts a lot of trust in the instincts of his players, so when those instincts are poor, the results can be disastrous (2009-2010).

If you’ve watched Duke in past 20 years, you know that their success comes from their ability to out-execute other teams to death in half court sets (last year’s UNC game in the ACC tournament is a textbook example). The system Coach K runs doesn’t require the most athletic players (the national championship back court was John Scheyer and Nolan Smith). But recruits need not visit Duke if they can’t sink open threes, or are careless with the ball. In a day in age where kids are negotiating shoe contracts before they can tie their own laces, Coach K holds in high regard the ability to correctly take a charge. People who want to see exciting basketball hate watching Duke play, but basketball purists marvel at the machine that’s put together every year.  

Occasionally, each of them has rebuilt their system around one player (Roy slowed his frenetic pace down for Hansbrough, and Krzyzewski sped his up for Jay Williams), but usually the games are about whether the Blue Devils perfectly coached precision can trump the Tar Heels’ supreme athleticism, and that dichotomy of styles has resulted in some memorable battles.  

Of the 23 games they’ve played, I’m sure fans of either team can rattle off a few of their favorites/nightmares: Duhon’s game winner in overtime, Duke’s defensive stand in 2005, Carolina’s furious comeback later in that same year, and UNC’s back to back wins at Cameron when both teams were ranked in the top 5. I can literally sit here all day and talk about all of the games played between the two teams (especially since the Williams hire), because almost all of them were played between highly ranked teams in front of raucous partisan crowds, and 13 of them were decided by 10 points or less.   

And what’s great is, this year should be more of the same, in fact it might be better. North Carolina starts the year with an NBA-ready front court of Zeller and Henson, and the most talented player in the country in Harrison Barnes. Duke again has a bevy of shooters with Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, and the mirror-shattering Ryan Kelly at the 3, but they also have a wild card with the explosive Austin Rivers. UNC is the consensus #1 in the country, while people are already saying that the Blue Devils are overrated at #6. Regardless, both of these teams will be in the national title hunt at the end of the year, and the two games that they’re guaranteed to play will just add to the storied history that they already have.  

Why it's not higher:

The postseason series is slanted heavily towards Duke. The Blue Devils have played UNC three times in the ACC tournament, winning all three by an average of 13 points. And most importantly, they haven’t met in a national postseason tournament since the 1971 NIT. Granted, it would take a mutual Final Four for the teams to match up with eachother on most occasions, but considering the success both teams have had, it’s surprising and disappointing.

For all of the things at stake in the games these two teams play (the ACC Championship, national ranking, bragging rights), there hasn’t been a win or go home scenario between the two in a long time. The games still definitely mean something, but there is always a game afterwards for both teams. Maybe the two teams are good enough this year that they do end up meeting in March, but until then it doesn’t make sense to me to put this in front of the next two rivalries on my list.  

#4 - Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers

Why it’s ranked this high:

Hate. There are plenty of other reasons that I’ll mention later, but after putting a lot of thought into it, I can’t think of two fan bases that share a mutual disdain like Alabama and Auburn do. Duke and North Carolina fans can commiserate over some very average Carolina professional teams. I’m willing to bet that there are more than a few Oklahoma fans who share common ground with Texas fans over the Dallas Cowboys and possibly the Texas Rangers. In Alabama there are no professional sports teams, which is probably good, because I don’t think anyone would really care. Down in Alabama, New Years Day is at the end of November.

But just because two very talented teams are natural rivals, it doesn’t guarantee an epic ten year stretch of games. The Celtics and the Lakers played two NBA Finals worth of games against each other, but there were no exceptional games, and plenty of bad ones. The 45-3 game last year is one of the rotten apples in the bunch of games that the Pats and the Jets have played recently. Fortunately, blowouts have been an uncommon occurrence in the Iron Bowl’s recent history (8/10 games decided by 10 points or less), and the previous two games fit better in a movie script than a box score.  

2009’s “throw out the record”-type of game saw #2 Alabama get their stiffest test of the season from an unranked Auburn team. After winning their first 7 SEC games by an average of 17 points, the Iron Bowl pushed Alabama’s undefeated season to the very limit, with Auburn holding the lead until a 79-yard drive gave Bama their first lead with 1:24 left in the 4^th quarter. Even after losing 4 of their previous 6 games leading up to it, the Iron Bowl brought out the best in a very average Auburn team.

Last year, both teams were at their best, with Auburn taking on the role of undefeated road team heading into Tuscaloosa. Alabama came out and swinging and knocked the Tigers on their asses with three touchdowns in the first 15 minutes. But the Cam Newton show was simply delayed. Even with the Tide holding major advantages in 1^st downs (23-18) and total yards (446-324), Newton eviscerated the Alabama defense. He not only stemmed the Tide, but rolled over them himself to the tune of four total touchdowns, including the game winner to Philip Lutzenkirchen early in the 4^th. Two years, two uniquely entertaining games both with 4^th quarter lead changes, between two of the premiere teams in the country. Add the storied tradition of the Iron Bowl in, and those games make the jump to legendary status among fans of each team.  

Michigan and Ohio State may be the media darling of college football, but then again it’s difficult to glorify ecological terrorism like poisoning all the trees in Auburn’s grove. Not to mention, “the Rivalry” hasn’t been relevant on the national stage recently, and it doesn’t appear either team will be for quite a while. On the other hand, Auburn and Alabama are about as relevant as you can get by those standards.

Since 2001, there have been only 12 undefeated seasons in college football. Alabama and Auburn have accounted for three of those, the only three that the SEC has had in that time span. With the SEC being far and away the best conference in college football, that means that despite a flawed BCS system, there were three years in which Auburn and Alabama were unquestionably the best team in the country because of the gauntlet they had to run to achieve perfection.

And as much as I do like the novelty of a neutral field in the Red River Rivalry, it just doesn’t have the same intensity as a series that switches between Auburn and Tuscaloosa every year. The Rammer Jammer cheer (a glorified version of Gary Glitter), from a crowd of thousands of students is awesome to hear. I can’t imagine a more difficult road environment than what the visitors face every year in the Iron Bowl.  

Why It’s Not Higher:

            Because while 9 win seasons have been like clockwork for Auburn since 2001, they have been significantly more elusive for their in-state rivals. From 2003-2007 (aka the Mike Shula era plus Nick Saban’s first year), Alabama won only three more games than they lost (33-30). Although the games during those years were still hotly contested (decided by an average of 7.4 points), Auburn still won all 5 of them. There was still regional pride on the line for the winner of the games, but Bama’s mediocrity ensured that was all that was at stake.

            I think the only other real major issue preventing this rivalry from being in the top 3 is that while Auburn and Alabama are both national title contenders, they may not be the best team in their division, a distinction that belongs to the LSU Tigers. Between the three teams, LSU has averaged 10.6 wins a year since 2002, while Auburn has averaged 9.6, and Alabama has averaged 8.8. Alabama-based teams have won the last two national championships, but LSU has captured two in the last ten years with a very plausible third well within reach this season. It’s nitpicking at this point, but it’s a flaw that the top 3 rivalries don’t share.

            Regardless, college football is a sport full of the most passionate and intense fan bases in the country. It’s the only major American sport where trophies change hands during regular season games. But despite plenty of heated rivalries throughout the country, no weekend carries more weight than the last Saturday in November in Alabama.