Thoughts on the NBA lockout

         

           This lockout passed ridiculous well before David Stern stayed home from school sick yesterday. Obviously, there are major differences between the players and the owners in terms of what the revenue split should be, the length of a max contract, and a number of other issues. But it’s as if both sides haven’t even looked up from the monumental hole they’re digging to see whether anyone cares if they pull themselves out.   

            It’s common knowledge that the only league that could weather a prolonged lockout (especially in this economic climate) is the NFL. The rabid demand that this country has for football, combined with only two days a week to watch it make for huge numbers in every area that it touches. Football is America’s game now and its national popularity is unrivaled.

           The NBA’s national popularity is certainly going to take a hit from this lockout, but only a jab at worst. But regional popularity, the support of individual teams, is what fuels the national presence. And that’s where the NBA is going to get hammered.

           People are fans of a team first and foremost, not the NBA as a whole. I watch the NBA because I am a Knicks fan, not vice versa. I usually make it to 2 or 3 games at most a year, and would try and make it to more if I had the money. MSG is appointment TV on game nights regardless of what else is on, regardless of whether the point guard has been Chauncey Billups or Chris Duhon. 

          The finals were one of the most highly rated ever because of how regionally polarizing they were. Dallas and Miami fans obviously tuned it because their team (and it disgusts me that the Heat are “Miami’s team” when in every sport outside of football, Miami has possibly the worst fans in sports) had a chance to win it.

          I watched it for two reasons; of course to see a high level of basketball. But what superseded that was that I only wanted to see it from one team. I was OK with watching the best player in the whole league fail miraculously because of he screwed MY team in the offseason. I’m sure plenty of Chicago fans felt the same way, and all of Cleveland probably huddled around one of the two functioning TV sets left there, voodoo dolls clutched firmly in their hands.

            Plenty of people that watched the Finals this year weren’t that concerned with seeing a high quality of basketball. They just wanted to see LeBron (or for Toronto fans Chris Bosh) fail because of a team allegiance. And I'm sure this extends to different fan bases. For example, during the Magic-Lakers finals, Celtics fans probably shared the same sentiments about Kobe Bryant. 

            If or when the NBA comes back this season, there are 10 or so cities that will welcome it back as if it never left, and about 5 more who will take a while to warm up, but return in full force within a month.

           But the NBA is going to lose major ground is in swing cities where basketball and hockey were on level footing in terms of regional support before the lockout. Cities where all the fans that live and die with the NBA sit in one section, adrift in a sea of casual fans who come to games because of the atmosphere of the event, and not any particular tie to the team. 

            The obvious cities are the ones far enough north that the ponds freeze. Minneapolis, where the Wild outdrew the Timberwolves by an average of 3,000 fans per home game last year, would certainly qualify. But looking into it further, this makes sense in Minnesota, a town that isn’t exactly steeped in basketball tradition. Moreover, the Wild have regularly given their fans something to cheer for, while the T-Wolves haven’t sniffed a winning season since Garnett left town.

            The trend is reaching even farther south into more important cities. I’ve lived in the Washington D.C. area for long enough to know that people down there could really give a shit less about the Wizards.

            Even with a potential franchise savior in John Wall, the Verizon Center is first and foremost where the Capitals play. Back in 2007, the last time the Wizards advanced to the playoffs, was the last time that basketball was the main draw. The Wizards had an average home attendance of 17,962, and the Capitals averaged a meager 15,472.

            Since then, the tables have turned completely. Last year the Wizards averaged slightly under 17,000 fans per home game, good enough to fill 83.2 % of the Verizon Center. While the Caps, who have built an exciting team around possibly the best player in the sport, averaged 18,397 fans per game, which filled the Verizon Center to capacity.

            But obviously the issue is not just about walk-up attendance this day in age. The interest in a team can be gauged just as accurately by TV ratings. According to Sports Business Journal last year, the Capitals finished the year with a 1.8 average to the Wizards 1.15, that’s a 57% gap between the two teams. What’s more, the Caps appear to be trending heavily upward (the 1.8 was up 12% from 2009), while the Wizards essentially numbers have essentially stagnated for the past few years.

            Judging by these two numbers, it’s safe to say that despite being south of the Mason-Dixon line, Washington is pre-eminently a hockey town. And it's obvious just by going to games; the Verizon Center comes to life when the Capitals are there. There are more people, making more noise, who care much more about the outcome of the game

            Now, with the NBA not showing any interest in maintaining the small fan base that they have in Washington, those numbers are likely to skew even more towards the Caps, even when the Wizards eventually slog back into the Verizon Center with their subpar squad.

            And Washington is just one of several cities. Take Boston for example. If basketball comes back in December, Boston fans will be coming back to a team on the downside of its apex, without a bench presence capable of effectively spelling the well-aged starters.

            Or, they could continue to support the reigning Stanley Cup Champions stocked to the brim with 27-and-under talent in their quest for a very plausible repeat. In Boston, the Red Sox run the town with the flavor of the week always determined by who has the winning ingredients. I defy any Boston sports fan to tell me that the Celtics have a better chance of winning a championship than the Bruins this year, so why wouldn’t Boston fans place their faith and attention with the surer bet?

            What Philadelphia fans are going to turn their attention back to a middle of the road 76ers team, when they have the option to watch a serious contender with the Flyers? The same argument can be made for Detroit. The Charlotte Bobcats, despite playing in a city almost double the size of their hockey competitor, did not outdraw the Carolina Hurricanes last year.

            And as this lockout continues to drag on and on, even the die hard fans get tired of being treated like shit. With the Jets mustering all the offensive firepower of a gas station sparkler, I need the distraction that basketball usually provides, but there’s nothing to follow right now. No news about how the rookies are acclimating because they have nothing to acclimate to. The normally non-stop gossip of the free agent rumor mill is non-existent.

            The only NBA news trickling out has been copy and pasted day to day for the last few months; the owners and players obstinately sticking to their guns on the same 4 or 5 issues, and having less successful lock-in’s than the bloods and the crips did in South Park. It’s fucking depressing.

            So my two options are to delve deeply into politics for the 6 days in between Jets games, or watch hockey. Needless to say, the precious little I know about the Islanders is much more than I ever thought I would. With the most intriguing college basketball season in years still weeks away, the Islanders are all that's on tap right now.

             I never originally latched onto hockey for a number of reasons (one of which being that I never played it, which I think is tied very heavily to following a sport. I skate like a baby giraffe walks because my freakishly tall and thin dimensions aren’t meant to function in skates. Stop making it look so fucking easy Zdeno Chara).

            But the primary one was that I never thought it would catch up in popularity with the NBA. And I don’t think the NHL would ever have a chance of catching up if owners and the players could decide how to tie the NBA’s shoes.

            It’s evident in every conversation I have, or Facebook status that I see from an NBA fan that the lock out is wearing very thin. It’s becoming difficult to rationalize caring so much about the return of a sport that so transparently could give a damn less about its fans.

            The complete lack of urgency or progress during this lockout tells me one thing. At one point during the meetings, the fans have inevitably been mentioned, and completely dismissed with the notion of "don't worry, they'll be back, let's continue banging our heads against a wall."

            And I will be back, because I can't cut ties with a team that I've been following since I was 4. Because after sitting through 10 years of Keith Van Horn for Tim Thomas, the Curry-Randolph front-court tandem swallowing the whole pre-game buffet and then the ball, and simply having to deal with Isiah Thomas’ existence within the organization, I feel like the Knicks owe me something. But somehow, I think I’m going to be looking back at plenty of people wondering where the hell I’m going. 

3 changes the Jets should make

After the last 2 years, it’s safe to say at 2-3, the Jets are a team that could and should be playing much better. There were a few casualties from 2010 to 2011, but the overall impact of those losses shouldn’t have reduced the product on the field to an offense incapable of moving the ball, and a defense as good at stopping the run as the offense is at sustaining it. This isn't Kansas City where a team took advantage of an easy schedule, or Pittsburgh where the offensive line is a shell of what it used to be. I still firmly believe this is a playoff team that has trouble hearing the starting gun for the season, and for most games.  

Realistically, the general anger towards this team is the result of one road loss. If the Jets had hit .333 on their road swing instead of coming back to New Jersey with a big fat goose egg, there would still be some worries, but losses in Baltimore and New England are certainly forgivable. But because of an upset loss in Oakland, and the subsequent offensive debacle in Baltimore (albeit without the services of by far their best offensive player) there has been a media backlash two years in the waiting.

There aren’t many teams capable of digging themselves out of a hole in the AFC East. The Jets are one of the teams with the talent and favorable schedule to do so. Combine that with the Bills being average the rest of the way (and a defense that is 30^th in the NFL will tend to produce those results), and the season is far from over. If the Jets make these three changes, I don't see how they finish any worse than 10-6. 

1)   Make sure Collin Baxter and Vlad Ducasse never see the field again:

            The offensive line looked night and day better with its most talented player back on the field Sunday, but Mangold’s return doesn’t address a huge depth issue. The first two blockers off the bench are more than likely Collin Baxter and Vlad Ducasse, who collectively will be paying of Sanchez’s chiropractic bills for the rest of the season.

There is no way that two players on the free agent market aren’t markedly better than those two human sandbags. Damien Woody said this morning that he would at least answer a call from the Jets, and that’s something definitely worth looking into. Woody’s pass blocking skills have diminished over the pass few years, but he’s still a strong run blocker that helped pave the way for the Jets dominating running game the last two years.

If Woody decides he’s done for good, there are still veterans out there right now (Shaun O’Hara, Nick Kaczur) who would not only come relatively cheap, but would be a huge upgrade at this point in the season. They were obviously cut for a reason, but I think the chief issue with them was and is durability. Neither of them is capable of lasting for an entire training camp and a 16 game season as a starter. However, if the Jets were to pick up one of those guys during the bye week, it would immediately provide much better offensive line depth and insurance against another injury to a starter.

2)   Keep the laundry off the field

Although the Jets have played within the guidelines in the majority of their games, this weekend yellow flags rained from the skies. Were it not for the 89 penalty yards that the Jets racked up, there’s a decent chance that they could have pulled off the upset in Foxboro.

Anybody who’s watched this team play for the past two years will admit that it’s not the most dynamic. But while the Jets have been loud and aggressive off the field, they have usually been relatively disciplined on it. In 2010, the Jets averaged 5.9 penalties per game for 52 yards over 20 games. During this three game losing streak, they’re averaging 8 penalties per game for 73 yards. The Jets played three games total that met those criteria last year (atleast 8 penalties for atleast 73 yards).

The Jets don’t need to be choir boys; the new two-hand touch rules don’t jibe with how they play defense. But back breaking penalties like the one in the first quarter on 3^rd and 26 when New England was on their own 12 last week are going to do two things. They're going to make it more difficult for an already average offense to score points, and they're going to put too much pressure on the defense to sustain a very high level of play. 

3)   Make LT the starter at running back

It’s crazy to look on the roster and see LaDainian Tomlinson, who might be the best running back of the past 15 years, listed at #2 on the depth chart. Now obviously, he’s not in the Hall of Fame form that he was as a Charger. But that shouldn’t make people blind to the idea that Shonn Greene is a better option as the starter

I really liked Shonn Greene when the Jets drafted him out of Iowa. He was and still is a powerful straight ahead runner with a gift for wearing down defenses. But for a number of reasons, I don’t think he’ll ever be able to sustain the success he had in the 2009 playoffs. The biggest issue being that he’s borderline useless as a receiver.

 The Jets are trying to force feed him passes this year (he has 12 catches in 5 games when he only had 16 all of last year), but even that’s not working. Among the 29 running backs with at least 10 catches this year, Greene ranks 26^th in yards per reception (5.9). LT on the other hand ranks 2^nd behind Ray Rice, averaging slightly more than 14 yards every time he catches a pass.

Although LT’s speed and agility haven’t aged that well, hands have a longer shelf life. And Tomlinson has some of the best hands at running back in the whole league. So this is not an issue of trusting an average back to run crisp routes and catch tough passes, Tomlinson has proven his whole career that he’s capable of that. The ball needs to come his way more.

The idea that Greene is a non-threat in the passing game is what allows defenses to load up against the run, or blitz when they see him on the field. Because he’s not capable of breaking a short pass for a long gain, opposing teams can sell out against an up the middle run, and unsurprisingly Greene hasn’t averaged 4 yards per carry in any game this year. There is no element of surprise with someone with such a one-note skill set.

The other side of the issue comes with the offense. If Tomlinson is in, and Sanchez sees a jail break blitz coming, a viable option is to audible to an empty look, and get a favorable matchup with a linebacker or safety trying to cover LT on a passing route. I’d be willing to bet anything that any empty sets are quickly discarded when Greene gets on the field. 

In the past two years, the Jets have lost eight total games. In six of those games, Tomlinson has caught two or fewer passes, including two total catches for six yards in the losses against Baltimore and New England. By contrast, they are 5-2 when he has 5 or more catches in a game. When Tomlinson has carried the ball 15 or more times in a game, the Jets are 7-2 since last year. Even just as a runner, he had a higher yards per carry than Greene last year (4.17 to 4.14).

The system that worked was to use LT until he tired out, and then have a fresh Greene at the end of the season. I have no idea why this team has deviated from that philosophy, when just about every metric says that when LT is at his best, he’s a much more effective option than Greene.