Play Ball

For the past 4 years, the Mets have disappointed me with a metronomic consistency, and yet somehow when late March rolls around, I’m somehow still excited for Opening Day. I, along with all Mets fans, am a living, breathing contradiction to Pavlov’s work. After all of the constant disappointment, Opening Day should have a similar feel to the beginning of college football season to me: just the beginning of another season following an optimistically average team. If the predictions hold true, and the Mets finish well under .500, this feeling of anticipation and hope will probably fade around the all-star break when Reyes is shipped off to cut payroll. But for now, starting today for fans of 12 other teams and tomorrow for me, illogical hope is the emotion du jour.  

            Football may now be the stereotypical American sport, but no sport trumps the pageantry and significance of baseball’s beginning. Groundhog day and daylight savings may be harbingers of the end of winter, but for sports fans, this is the definitive start of spring. After all, how is it possible to enjoy hot dogs and beer when it’s 50 and cloudy outside? The reason that baseball fans are so enraptured with Opening Day isn't just their team. It's the story lines for players and fans alike. 

            Opening Day is Livan Hernandez warming up in the bullpen to supplant Washington’s most established southpaw. It’s not the Yankees, but the team New York let get away out by the bay area trying to prove that they have staying power. It’s marveling at Aroldis Chapman’s ability to make a joke out of the radar gun. Jason Heyward announcing his presence on the big stage with all of the subtlety of Gilbert Gottfried. Kaz Matsui earning a yearly stay of execution by doing an exceedingly convincing Ken Griffey Jr. impersonation. It’s wondering if Derek Jeter recognizes the irony of asking the umpire for extra time when he toes the batters box at age 36. It’s heavyweight pitching matchups with enough star power to make Lou DiBella and Bob Arum green with envy. 

For the fans, it’s tradition, the sick day to end all sick days for kids of any age. Visiting modern marvels such as the new Yankee Stadium, or functioning museums like Fenway and Wrigley. The return of AM radio on long car rides narrated by John Sterling, Howie Rose, or for lucky Dodger fans the golden standard that is Vin Scully. Knowing that you look ridiculous trying to snare an autograph in a group of 10 year olds, but ignoring it. The taboo subject of not commenting on a pitcher’s performance until he’s given up his first hit, and reacting with absurd exuberance to the first well struck fly ball.

While football may be weekend warfare, and the NCAA tournament is Sensory Overload as narrated by Gus Johnson, baseball is what sports fans crave the most: consistency. Baseball games are on par with the sun rising in the east in terms of reliability, and for all of the surprises and inconsistencies there are in life on a daily basis, that’s comforting. Regardless of whether you win the lottery or lose your job, baseball will almost always be there as an anchor for the day.

So whether you’re glued to your game cast of choice at a 9-5, or are amongst the fortunate minority taking in batting practice, the wait is almost over. Predictions are quickly becoming a thing of the past, and statistical analysis will be tabled. Just as soon as the man in blue kicks it off with those two all-important words.   

High Priced Foreign Options: Bay and Beltran.

The first big ticket item to look at is Jason Bay. To say Jason Bay had a tough first year at Citi Field is to say Nicolas Cage has had a tough 2010 with the critics. Even before the concussion, Bay was a streaky contact hitter at best, and a strikeout machine at worst. Just like with Wright, it was apparent to anyone tuning in that Bay wasn’t right because of the constant self-administered tweaks to his batting stance. To be fair, Bay was switching from one of the most homer friendly parks at Fenway to a place where home run sightings come as frequently as big foot ones at Citistone National Park.

J-Bay just needs to know, no sane Mets fan has any delusions of him reaching his 36 homer mark of 2009. What we need is the old Jason Bay from Pittsburgh, who I always thought of as more of a doubles hitter with home run power. Bay apparently has gotten the message, returning to his more conventional closed stance instead of opening up and diving in with his left foot. Bay’s never been a prolific contact hitter, in fact his strike out rate is very high. But similar to Wright, his hot streaks can scorch the earth, and he is definitely capable of winning a three game series almost by himself.

Out of his 6 home runs last year, 4 were less than 400 feet, so it’s not like he was evoking memories of Mickey Mantle with his distance when he did go deep. One positive that came of playing in Citi Field was that it showed off some of Bay’s underrated speed; he tied his career high in triples, with 4 of them coming in Queens. What this team has is speed on the base paths, even the catcher can run, so home runs aren’t necessary. Bay is a prolific gap hitter who will have ample RBI opportunities with speed merchants such as Reyes, Pagan, and to a lesser extent Wright hitting in front of him. If he can accept that because of age and his surroundings he’s going to be more of a 20-25 home run a year guy, I think Jason Bay can not only have a bounce back year

      It sounds absurd on the surface, but to make a cross-sport comparison, Carlos Beltran is kind of like a LeBron James. At his peak, Beltran was the golden standard: a true, complete 5 tool player. A gold glove given, with the highest stolen base success percentage of all time who could threaten 40 HR’s every year. But like with LeBron, despite knowing he was put on this earth to do what he does, you just have to wonder if greatness fleetingly found him, instead of vice versa.

LeBron had his moment of ascendance against the Pistons where he scored the Cavs’ last 29 points, Beltran had his dominant 2004 playoffs. In 12 games, he hit .435 with 8 HR’s, 14 RBI’s and 6 steals against Atlanta and St. Louis. The comparison isn’t perfect because of how much of an other-worldly athletic specimen LeBron is, but it’s closer than you think. At his peak, Beltran made everything on the diamond look SO easy, that he was regularly criticized for laziness and playing the game devoid of passion. What more you can ask from a 6 time all star is something I will never understand.

The arguments for him having a good season are viable. He’s nearly a year removed from knee surgery, and the Mets appear to be bringing him along relatively slowly. Absent the reports just being another mirage created by the somehow still employed Mets medical staff, it appears that this might be the first time Beltran will be truly healthy since 2008. The other is that Beltran is in the vaunted contract year, and will be a free agent at the end of the season. Whether the Mets resign him is a separate matter entirely, but a return to form at age 34 will earn him a significantly healthier payday from whatever suitors he has for his services at the end of the year.  

But with Beltran, you just wonder with the injuries, the knee surgery fiasco, and his well-documented hot and cold streaks whether he can still shoulder the offensive load for stretches like he used to do when healthy. The fading of his formerly electric speed has forced a move to right field, and has all but neutered him on the base paths. Not to mention, Carlos has never exactly been one to play through injuries. If he’s hurt, he doesn’t have a problem sitting, and getting opinions from 20 different doctors at 20 different hospitals and then going to get 30 different procedures. The incentive for a new contract is still there, but assuming he hasn’t encountered daunting financial difficulties (and with the Mets, you really never know), he’s probably doing just fine in the money department.

So will 2011 be Beltran’s renaissance? I say no, with the sincere hope that I’m wrong. His knees are balky to start the year, and at age 34, I think even at 100%, to expect even a 20-20 season at this point may be hoping for a little too much. Beltran may surprise early, but the days of him putting a team on his back are well behind him, and even if he doesn’t start the season on the DL, I believe he’ll end on it. I don’t think his ego can take having to deal with missing a few tools in his formerly full belt. 

"When you come at the king..."

        


          And the Knicks missed. Plenty in the second half. But almost every article that's caught my eye today has read something along the lines of how last night was the Knicks "worst loss of the season". Some writers are explaining why it's too early to call the Carmelo trade a flop, some are asking whether the team can be fixed. Now, this is the New York media market, so hyperbole and overreaction come with the territory. But to pinpoint last night as the epicenter of the Knicks troubles is just plain wrong.
           In order to deal with the good that I believe can come from this loss, the mistakes need to be assessed. After a sublime first 24 minutes, the Knicks came out in the second half with an air of arrogance, exhibited most by their small forward. Carmelo looked to continue his mastery of Paul Pierce at every opportunity. Unfortunately, Pierce wasn't interested in complying. He forced Melo into missing all five shots he took in the second half, most of which were absentminded heaves that halted the offensive flow and gave the Celtics room to run.
          Overall, the quality of looks that the Knicks got in the second half dropped precipitously from those they got in the first. A combination of improved Boston defense, and uninspired ball movement that yielded mostly obscured looks from 15 feet and out. The Knicks defense wasn't good in the fourth quarter, especially in transition, but to place the blame on them entirely would be incorrect. Garnett was a monster on the boards and sank a crowd-silencing 20 footer to beat the shot clock, and Paul Pierce garnered the type of attention a player of his caliber warrants in the fourth quarter. He just made everything. Outside of the obligatory "let Rondo shoot from anywhere that his arms can't reach the rim" strategy, there was only one WIDE open look that Ray Allen had from three (which he missed).
         I just have a very tough time calling this a bad loss when I felt that the Knicks had less of a part in losing it than the Celtics did in winning it. The Knicks started the 3rd quarter complacent, and the Celtics started it pissed off. By all accounts, Doc gave them their medicine at halftime, and they responded. They got angry, shifted into a "playoff must-win" gear, and the Knicks don't have that yet. How many teams do though? When the Celtics flip the nitrous switch, I would say maybe the Lakers can go toe to toe with them. Maybe the Magic if Howard's not in foul trouble, and that's it. I can understand how people are calling this a bad loss, but it just came at a bad time to a great team. Very different.
        This isn't a loss that had no positives like the Bucks game. The Knicks struggled in the second half, that's no secret. Partially because they choked offensively, and partially because the Celtics made them work for everything defensively. But the best part about this loss is that it has to hurt, doesn't it? This wasn't losing a game off the grid in Cleveland or Milwaukee, or a half-hearted comeback attempt against Indiana. This was the show time at the Garden, with no possibility of going to take shelter on the bus after getting physically beat up and substantially out-guiled by the Celts in the second half. A win that could have erased all of the negative publicity of the past week was ripped from their fingers.
        Especially Carmelo's. His turned from those of King Midas to a stone mason, and after blaming D'Antoni, Jeffries, and whoever else this past week, he'll now see his face plastered all over websites today. After eviscerating the Celtics with his shooting in the first half, he could have created havoc by looking for teammates. It's a big leap of faith to say that he's willing to do that, but if he can swallow his pride and occasionally look for cutters when he's isolated, the team will make a quantum leap forward. But if there's any time he'll be willing to budge, it will be sitting in the loser's locker room with a cut left eye and a severely bruised ego.
       Make no mistake, last night the Knicks briefly achieved the dominance which had been pre-ordained for them by the same analysts panning them today. The sand fell through their fingers in the second half, but they had it. From an optimistic standpoint, which I usually choose to take to maintain my sanity, they're a team that's understanding what it takes night in and night out to win in this league. They've put together some great quarters, great halves, and even a great game (against Miami). The hardest thing to figure out how to do is close out a game, especially against a fired up championship contender tired of hearing that they suck from a crowd who should be smart enough not to poke a sleeping bear with a stick. If they do figure out how to pull it all together for one game, they proved that they can put a hurting on a good team for one half. Now they just need to have the killer instinct to pull the trigger one more time.

Cleaning up the garbage from yesterday's mess.

As I’ve lamented plenty of times, I’ve had the bad fortune of following plenty of teams who have had below average years. Last year’s Mets come to mind. The Jets had the year where Chad Pennington AND Jay Fiedler both were critically injured in the opener. And, probably most obviously, the Knicks had the Isiah era which probably correlates favorably with the Nixon presidency. But I have never been a fan of a team that just flat out doesn’t try. Fortunately for me, yesterday’s Knick game gave me a glimpse into that previously unseen facet of sports fandom.

            When it comes to critiquing sports players, I adhere to a very simple school of thought. Professional athletes are people that have been bestowed with athletic gifts and knowledge that 99% of the American population are not privy to, and cannot possibly comprehend. But they still are people, and they make mistakes. In the first Jets game this season when Dustin Keller appeared oblivious to the first down marker mere feet away in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, I was upset because the Jets lost, but I didn’t blame Keller. I don’t know what it’s like to get plowed over by a Ford Explorer wearing number 52, and then on the very next play, try to gather myself and be aware enough of my surroundings to try and spot an orange marker on the sidelines while running full speed in front of 80,000 screaming people. And unless you’re currently locked out of your job, neither do you.

I have not, and will never, get on Carlos Beltran for not swinging at the diabolically perfect Adam Wainwright threw him to end the 2006 NLCS. Beltran had produced an outstanding season, and series, and without him the Mets would have never been in the position to get to the World Series. A flawlessly executed curveball from a Cy Young award caliber pitching is a challenging proposition for even the best hitters to say the least.

            But there is one thing I will boo about, and it’s the only thing will compel me to do so. That’s effort. As sports fans, there is an unspoken, unwritten contract we all have with our teams. No matter how bad you are, we will come back every season. Maybe we’ll reconsider springing for season tickets, maybe we’ll call in to sports radio and malign how poorly you’re performing, and we’ll threaten to jump ship. But for all of the harsh words and media criticism, when it comes down to it, we’ll always go down with the band. We’ll always care. As long as you do.

 The first quarter of that game yesterday was an exercise in apathy. Exhibit A for any sports fan who questions the validity and effort in the NBA. The offensive performance, however putrid it may have been, was less difficult to swallow. The team is still jelling, they haven’t been together that long, kind of like a slump in baseball, once you’re stuck in a hole it’s difficult to pull yourself out. However well trodden and stale these excuses are becoming, they still hold some legitimacy.

            The other end, however, was another story completely. While the prosecution sputtered, the defense simply rested. And it’s not just yesterday, it’s the back to back Indiana games, it’s the losses to Cleveland. Yesterday was just the climax in what was rising action up until that point. I’m tired of seeing Carmelo Anthony fighting through screens with all of the fervency of a sleepwalker. I’m tired of watching Amar’e camped out down low halfheartedly poking an arm out to nowhere in particular while the offensive juggernaut that is Luc Richard Mbah a Moute simply slides behind him for a charitably conceded lay up.

Tyler Hansbrough averaged 29 points against the Knicks in two consecutive games with an offensive arsenal about as imposing as the Canadian military for one reason. He gave a shit, and he hustled. For all of the people that aren’t Hansbrough fans, and as a Maryland alum I count myself among them, Hansbrough’s on the floor effort has been consistently outstanding. He kept moving all game, he found open jump shots, and considering the fact that he’s an NBA basketball player, he made them. He didn’t torch Amar’e, Amar’e just laid down to take a rest in the fire. Which the entire team-with the possible exception of the consistently motivated Douglas and Williams-joined him in doing in the first quarter yesterday.

To conclude since this is getting longwinded, the reason all fans rightfully get heated about a debacle like the first quarter yesterday is simple. If you put five Knicks fans off the street out there, we certainly would have been athletically humiliated by the “offensively challenged” Bucks, but when it came to going down with the metaphorical guns blazing, I can guarantee you that anybody who has played basketball would have no bullets left in the chamber. In the first quarter, the Knicks holstered their gun, and clicked on the safety.

So, wherever it has to come from: the coaching staff, the locker room, upper management, the origination of the message doesn’t need to matter, just the content. Attn: The stars on this team; stop being content to defer to the crutch that you’re “below average defenders.” Nobody should believe that Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire cannot competently defend 95% of the league. They’re top tier athletes in a league that is chocked full of some of the most athletically gifted people on the planet. Having a few bad days at the office is understandable, not showing up to work for a week when you’ve only been employed for a month is not. The word "disinterested" is an extremely thinly veiled insult, and should be regarded as such. You're making millions of dollars a year to play a game. Don't act aloof to the idea of some hard work, it's detestable to all of us that would exchange a pound of flesh for an iota- even a thimble full - of your talent and ability.

           I’m going to the Celtics game tonight, and if the Knicks play even remotely resembles the lucidity of yesterday, they will get throttled by a Celtics team that not only prides itself on effort, but also calculatedly dominating teams that do not share that same sentiment. And if that happens, the only cheers the Knicks will encourage will be of the Bronx variety. And I’ll be happy to oblige. 

The Lineup: Part 1, The Franchise Players

And now on to what makes the Mets the most frustrating team to follow: the lineup. I would say that just about every single pre-season evaluation I’ve heard about with the Mets lineup starts with the Jeopardy category-esque statement: “On Paper.” And it should, looking at the Mets lineup and their season averages, you can probably pick out about four better lineups in the National League: Phillies, Reds, Rockies, Cardinals maybe? But if if’s and but’s were candies and nuts, then EVERY day would be Erntedankfest according to Dwight Schrute. Injuries have ravaged the Mets lineup from the obvious (Reyes and Beltran’s seeming inability to leg out a double without their legs detaching from their body) to the less noted (David Wright was not the same –and still isn’t completely- after taking that fastball upside his head). Can the Mets lineup FINALLY put up the numbers that stat sheets say they should be, or is it another year of 2 runs and a cloud of dust?

Have to start with the fire starter, Jose Reyes. I couldn’t agree more with the assessment that when Reyes is right, everything seemingly falls into place for the Mets offensively. When he’s slumping, his bat seems polarized to breaking balls, and when he does get a piece of something, it’s usually a harmless pop up. But when he gets going, he’s one of the rare players who’s just as effective in the batters box as he is on the base paths. He’s equally capable of ripping a double down the line as laying down a bunt, and that’s just the beginning. I can’t remember who exactly it was against (either Benitez or Alfonseca I think) on Florida, but he forced three consecutive balks to get himself home a few years back. A Reyes single can take a pitcher directly off autopilot. That lapse in confidence while Reyes is on base, however brief, can lead to hitters seeing a hanger or two due to the constant threat of a steal.

All reports out of camp have Reyes in the best shape he’s ever been in, and when I saw him in spring training this past week he went 0-3 but hit everything hard, narrowly missing a homerun down the right field line. Reyes is in a contract year, and I hope the Mets (I won’t say the the father and son who shall not be named, just sell the team) open the checkbooks. If he’s healthy – always a concern with Reyes – I see something like his 2008 where he was a legitimate MVP candidate.

Fortunately it appeared that David Wright started to recover from his concussion last year. Obviously the symptoms aren’t there, but there are players who are never the same after actually taking one in the earhole. Wright was obviously way up in the strikeouts category last year, but that was largely a product of his May where he struck out a ridiculous 39 times. Every other month he was between 23-26 strikeouts, and if you lower May to 26 strikeouts it makes his total much more reasonable. Remember, Wright has had to carry the Mets offense more or less singlehandedly for the last two years, so a little bit of help and him not having to swing for the fences will make those totals go down in my opinion.

What’s great about Wright is that he’s in what should be his prime: 28 years old, 3 years to adjust to playing at home in Citi Field. He just needs some protection, which will hopefully come in the form of Bay and a healthy, if somewhat deteriorated, Beltran. When Wright stepped a little farther into the batters box to stop getting abused by the breaking ball in the dirt off the plate, the holes in his swing started to disappear. He became a little bit quicker on the high fastball, which had tormented him most of the season. It’s a secret to no one that he’s currently struggling in spring training, but that truthfully probably means nothing. I think if Wright finally has some protection around him, and has other options to share the load with on offense, he will be the #1 fantasy option at 3^rd base this year. 

And now for something financially insoluble and frustrating (Part 1: These are our starters this evening)

As I’ve been incarcerated by the moment by the last few weeks writing about how the Knicks can make some serious noise in the playoffs, I’ve unfortunately had to stare at the background of this site. And Know. Baseball season is coming. Out of the teams that can drive me to drinking of the celebratory or mournful kind, the Mets have unquestionably provided the most of the latter. In four years of college, I had what had to be the most gut wrenching sports memory of my life orchestrated by a defensive minded catcher on the Cardinals who will not be named, and two seemingly dominant teams collapse in Roman fashion. But what’s ahead this season is possibly worse; an apparent complete absence of hope. The Phillies have assembled nuclear arms faster than North Korea ever could have hoped to, and the Braves have not only returned to their “sun rising in the east” consistency, but now have a player in Heyward who is tough to hate regardless of allegiances because of his superstar potential and humility at age 22.

             However, this is the spring, the only time where hope springs eternal for every team. So, as incredibly skeptical as I am about at the Mets team (and more so the franchise as a whole) I’m going to go through the team group by group, beginning with the starting pitchers, and try and find reasons that a team that finally doesn’t have preseason hype is the one to believe in.

The big name may be out, but the starting pitching is good

While there is no superstar due to Santana’s glaring absence, there are some good pitchers in the starting rotation. I think the best of the bunch could very well be Jonathon Niese. Niese had a very average year at 9-10 with a 4.20 ERA, but it was first full year in the bigs. Although Citi Field is very conducive to pitching to contact, it’s nice to have the stuff capable of missing bats, and Niese has fastball that stays in the low to mid 90’s to go with an above average cutter, and a knee buckling curve. He was unlucky last year in terms of BABIP (.335), and he definitely tired in the last two months of the season, which is to be expected of a rookie. With a decent lineup, and hopefully an improved bullpen, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Niese to win 15 games this year, or more.

            I like Mike Pelfrey, but there are a few reasons that I don’t like him as much as Niese. He’s 27 at this point, and was long the jewel of the Mets minor league system, and for most of last season, he lived up to that. Because he’s a pitch to contact guy, he’s a dominant home pitcher (10-3, 2.83 ERA), and exceedingly average outside of Queens (5-6, 4.95). The biggest question I have about Pelfrey is, WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN JULY?! If you watched the Mets last season, Pelfrey’s July was like watching Space Jam. As talented a pitcher as there was for the first few months, an egregious all star snub, and even being mentioned as the Mets true #1 starter.

Then the best explanation I have is that the Monstars returned to earth and stole his talent. That isPelfrey’s 2010 season stats were 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA. Extracting his July Stats, he would have been 15-6, 2.58. Which of course means, he was beyond brutal in July, starting 5 games, going 0-3 with a stratospheric 10.02 ERA. It wasn’t that he was unlucky, opponents batted .429 off him during the month. He could locate his pitches, his sinkers were up in the zone, and when you saw close ups on the mound, it looked like the face of a guy who had completely lost his confidence. And regardless of how good he was the rest of the season, that July was an incredibly noticeable zit that could be magnified under the pressure Pelfrey will face as a #1 starter.

            On the opposite end of the confidence spectrum is R.A. Dickey.  In order to have a knuckleball, and the fastball of a pre-Angels Mel Clark, you need to have fortitude in all of its various iterations. There are a couple of downsides to Dickey: he’s 36 years old, his previous best year was in 2003 when he was 9-8 with a 5.09 ERA, and Tim Wakefield has been the only other successful knuckleballer of the past two decades.

The first two points do come with caveats. Despite the fact that Dickey is 36 years old, it’s not like he’s going to lose his stuff. He throws a knuckleball, as long as one of his fingers doesn’t fall off, he should still be able to throw it effectively well into his forties. It’s not like his arm can wear down, considering Dickey had the unique fortune of being born without the ulnar collateral ligament (the tommy john muscle). By that definition, he literally has a rubber arm. Also, to compare Dickey now, to Dickey 7 years ago is useless. He’s a completely different pitcher who only started utilizing the knuckler as his main pitch 2 or 3 years ago.

But the last point is somewhat of a worry. There’s a reason there aren’t many knuckleball pitchers on the big league stage, it’s far and away the most fickle pitch in baseball. If the wind starts blowing, if it’s too humid, if you haven’t had your daily manicure, and an incredibly deceptive pitch becomes an eminently hittable 70 mph BP fastball with the flip of a switch. Only Wakefield has been able to perfect this brand of batter hypnosis, and before him the last guy was Tom Candiotti in the 80’s. Either Dickey is the heir apparent or he isn’t, and there is no middle ground.

            The last player I’ll go into here is Chris Young. The 5^th spot could be a number of people (Dillon Gee, Chris Capuano, maybe the Mets mess with Mejia some more), but Young is entrenched in the 4^th spot. With Young, the only question is health. He clearly has stuff, seeing as how his career ERA is 3.80. It’s safe to say that he’ll best just as effective in Citi Field as he was in Petco Park. He’s only 32, and he doesn’t get by on velocity, and is one of those pitchers why when he’s thrown five scoreless innings against your team you wonder “why can’t we hit this guy?!” But his shoulder and elbow are being held together by bubble gum and paper clips, and even though he finished the year very strong last year, his velocity was WAY down (near 83). Very simply, he’s not going to be what he was four years ago, but four years ago he was a #1 or #2 starter. He’s got three good pitches which he uses effectively, and he’s smart (Princeton grad).

            The last part of this is obviously Johan, the guy who deserves better than getting injured at the end of every year. Thinking about the possibility that coming to the Mets may have cost Santana the Hall of Fame is sickening. Terry Collins said that the team will be lucky to get 12-15 starts out of him, and maybe just for once the lineup and bullpen can allow him to win more than half of those. If the Mets can hang in contention until #57 gets back, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll be borderline dominant down the stretch to help this team out, because that’s just something you can count on with great pitchers. When the team really needs it, they always answer the bell.

General projections:

• Ø  Niese wins at least 14 games. He seemed to be getting a hang of it last season early on, then went through the regular rookie jitters before fatiguing towards the end. If the lineup is healthy, then they’ll be able to pull out 1 or 2 wins for him solely by putting some crooked numbers up on the board. I think he and Pelfrey will be the co-#1’s of the staff, with him being the more dominant at times.
• Ø  I tend to lean towards the glass half empty philosophy with Young. His velocity has improved during the spring, but unless he’s the second coming of Greg Maddux, an 89-90 mph fastball isn’t going to cut it. I think he struggles out of the gate, and if he isn’t replaced by Capuano before Johan returns, he’ll be on the outside of the rotation looking in once Johan gets back in favor of either Capuano, or Gee
• Ø  To expect Pelfrey to be the dominant pitcher he was in the early months of last year is a pipe dream that I’m not going to follow. However, I think while Niese is more capable of providing the sizzle in terms of strikeouts, Pelfrey has the making of a rock due to his ability to keep the ball out of the air, and the fact that he’s an inning eater. I think his ERA probably stays about the same, because he won’t have a horrible July, and he probably settles in at about 15 wins.
• Ø  As I’ve said previously, predicting Dickey’s season is quite literally like predicting which way the wind will blow. He’s a smart pitcher, and an innings eater, but I think he’s in for a little bit of a reality check this year now that the National League has had a full year to scout him in what was something of a rookie year in 2010 due to the changes he made.