If Abe Lincoln had sex with a Hell's Angel...(Maryland vs. Wake Forest Preview)

Most teams choose animals (Tigers) westerners (Cowboys) or characters from Deliverance (looking at you West Virginia) to represent their school. I'll try to judge Wake Forest based on their team instead of on their mascot, the rebellious brother of the Quaker Oats man. 

Why Worry about Wake?

If you click over to ESPN.com, or whatever stat site suits your leisure, and take a look at the ACC scoring leaders, you should have a nice “oh shit” moment upon first glance of the list. That’s because the two names just below Terrell Stoglin – CJ Harris and Travis McKie - have “WAKE” written next to them.

CJ Harris (Jr.) has gone from a role player his first two years (9.9 and 10.3 ppg), to a dominant scoring force for Wake this season. A 6'3" guard who was always adept at getting to the line (he hit 17/18 FT's against Miami last year) Harris is now getting his points from everywhere on the floor, and getting them more efficiently than any player in the ACC. He’s shooting 53% from the field, which is insane for a guard, and 55% from 3 point range, which is insane for anybody (5^th in the NCAA). Last game, he buried Virginia Tech, and then nailed on the coffin with two clutch three pointers in the final minute.

Travis McKie (So.) is the more multifaceted of Wake’s two threats due to his size. At 6’7”, the 3/4 combo is brandishing a newly effective perimeter game (38% from 3 point range), and has blossomed into a legitimate full court threat. Although it was Harris in the final minute against VA Tech, it was McKie in the first 47 pulling down 15 rebounds along with 12 points to help keep Wake in that game. Neither of these two provide the uber-athletic challenge of a CJ Leslie or an Austin Rivers, but their production is undeniable (they’ve combined for 13 20+ point games this season). If they both play to their averages, this game will suddenly be on level ground. 

The Deacs are coming off their best game of the year, upsetting an above average Virginia Tech team at home. Their rebounding - which had been a point of weakness - was uncharacteristically dominant, and the 2-3 zone held up inside and out (Tech was 6/22 from deep).

Why Wake should be a Walkover:

Last game Maryland got plenty of open looks against a below average NC State defense. This game, the Terps will face a defense that – last game notwithstanding - may very well be the worst in major conference college basketball. If you didn’t know (and I didn’t) there are 345 men’s teams in Division 1, and you need to scroll through a lot of them before seeing Wake on any defensive stats list. They are a god awful 330^th in points per game allowed (77.2), 328^th in opponents 3 point percentage (37.0), and a less embarrassing by comparison 288^th in opponents shooting percentage (45.6). They allowed 84 points to a 5-10 Arizona State team, and gave up 83 to High Point in a 4 point win. Todd Bradford couldn’t coach a defense this bad (too soon?).

There’s really only one more scoring threat on Wake (Tony Chennault at 11.1 PPG), and then nothing even worth considering. Of the single digit per game scorers, only Carson Desrosiers shoots over 40% from the floor, and that 45% is diminished by him being 7 feet tall and being able to almost look down into the basket. So outside of the big 2 scorers, Wake Forest has precious little firepower to give as good as they get.

This team is almost completely unchanged from the one that Maryland waxed by 19 last season in Winston Salem.

What Maryland needs to do to win:

There are plenty of times this year that the Terps are going to need to rely heavily on Terrell Stoglin’s shot making to keep them in games. This will not be one of those times. In fact an overreliance on a cold Stoglin is one of the only ways I could see this game being close (the other is a team-wide case of the flu). If Maryland keeps the ball moving on offense, there should be open shooters because A) that's usually the byproduct of a 2-3 zone and B) Wake's 2-3 zone is probably an abomination.

Against all bad teams, second chances can give them a second life, so Maryland has to stake their claim on the defensive boards. It looks like this shouldn’t be that difficult, as Wake ranks 327^th nationally in offensive rebounds per game. James Padgett and Ashton Pankey need to be at their physical, ferocious best, and Alex Len needs to show consistent effort for the full game. The Terps defense has looked good if not great for the most part this year, so they can’t waste solid defensive possessions by not closing them out with a rebound, especially against the efficient duo of Harris and McKie.

Speaking of those two, Maryland can do themselves a huge favor by cutting off half of Wake Forest’s scoring power. Considering Harris should be working off a bevy of screens to get open looks, McKie will be the easier candidate to defuse. Sean Mosley might be too small, and James Padgett too slow, but Mychal Parker could be the ideal fit. Considering his recent stretch of good play, Parker should get some well deserved minutes in this game, hopefully while locking down one of Wake’s premiere offensive options.

My prediction:

Maryland is 7-3 in their last 10 games vs Wake Forest, and this seems like an ideal opportunity to pick up their second win against an RPI top 100 team. In Winston Salem, I would still give Maryland a slight edge. But at Comcast, I think Maryland will get out to a double digit lead by half, and for one of the first times this year, coast to a win. Look for the Terps to continue to get better against a team with close to equal talent, but significantly inferior execution.

Maryland 79   Wake Forest 64

I miss Sidney Lowe (NC State - Maryland recap)

Well amidst all of the Tebowmania yesterday, there was a still a Maryland basketball game that was played, so a quick review of what went right and what went wrong yesterday at the RBC Center.

1. I think the biggest issue that I had from a game plan standpoint was the inability to get Alex Len involved for the majority of the second half. Nick Faust and Pe’Shon Howard struggled mightily from the field, as did Sean Mosley until about halfway through the period. Len still did end up with a double-double (12 points, 11 rebounds), but he’s the best second option for this team going forward, especially if he’s capable of knocking down the 15 foot jumper he did in this game. I think Len’s lack of involvement was partially due to the gameplan, and partially because he was very passive in the second half (he looked tired, especially trying to get back on defense), but both of those issues need to be fixed if Maryland wants to seriously compete.  
2. Pe’Shon Howard is turning the corner returning from his injury, and the first half of this game was a great showcase for it. He looked exactly like the passing point guard this team lacked in his absence, routinely finding open shooters all over the court, and finishing with 8 assists. The shooting (1/8 from the floor) will come around eventually, but the most important facet of his game appears to be almost completely back to normal.
3. Terrell Stoglin played great yesterday, something he’ll need to continue to do in order to keep the Terps in any game this season. It’s very impressive that he’s able to answer the bell game after game as just a sophomore, and I think he’ll be able to keep doing it because of how versatile he’s become. Since last season, his 3 point shooting percentage has risen 7% from 36 % to 43%. Now that every team has to respect his shot out to 20-25 feet, or he’ll bury them with deep balls all night. That range combined with his already blazing quickness really gives him a complete offensive toolset in a very small but dominant package.
4. Two of the lower classmen are going in two different directions. Mychal Parker has quietly transformed himself from a live pulse to an actual competent, skilled basketball player. I don’t think he’ll get a ton of minutes this year with Mosley doing almost everything he does at the 3 but better, but there’s no denying his improvement. An efficient 9 points on 3-3 shooting, including a three, two made free throws, and an eye opening 3 steals. If you've watched highlight videos of him, Parker's athleticism jumps off the screen. Even with limited offensive tools, he has the potential to be a beast on defense, which is extremely valuable. Parker got his fewest minutes of the season yesterday (12), but if Turgeon watched what I did, that number will stay the lowest for the rest of the year.
5. On the other hand, Nick Faust has looked bad plenty more times than he’s looked good this year, and yesterday was no exception. Another bad shooting day compounded with precious little else in his box score row (a board and a dime). I don’t know how Faust actually makes his shot, he looks off balance on his release even when he’s wide open. I know Faust is just a freshman, and the adjustment to college ball is a difficult one to make, but it should definitely start becoming more of an even platoon between he and Parker off the bench.
6. Unsurprisingly, what lost this game was another subpar performance at the line (13/21), and some very untimely turnovers. Pe’Shon making a sloppy pass when the lead was at 6, Faust bulling into a charge after UMD had cut it to 4. The rebounding battle was sufficiently close (largely thanks to James Padgett working his ass of underneath to rip a few boards away from a bigger NC State front line. Nobody besides he and Len had more than 3 rebounds).
7. Just more of the youth of this team showing than you would have liked in what really was a difficult road game against an NCAA tournament caliber team. Leslie was an athletic marvel, and Lorenzo Brown is going to push Kendall Marshall for the title of best PG in the conference with more games like yesterday (11 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 1 turnover). Not to mention their offensive communism was in full force yesterday (6 players with 7 points or more). This was a close game throughout, and if a few more free throws bounced in, or if a few more passes found their marks, I’d be writing about the first of a few road upsets this Terps team will pull this season.    

It'd be cooler if Maryland played these guys tomorrow (NC State vs. UMD preview)

The second most wonderful time of the year has arrived in college basketball. Conference play is just opening up, and the sound of bubbles inflating and popping is music to any fan’s ears. After a start reminiscent of a broken elevator (3-3 in the first 6 games) Turgeon’s Terps seem to have stabilized by feasting on diet of mid-majors. In the last year of the true ACC – one in which the conference is having trouble finding adequate side attractions for the main events in North Carolina – Maryland is an intriguing possibility.

The last game against Cornell showed that this team has enough talent to pile on a big lead (15-0 run to start the game) and enough inexperience to fritter it away (the second half was an exercise in the “keep-away” offense). Alex Len’s knack for post scoring and unexpected consistency has formed a great pairing with Terrell Stoglin’s mercurial scoring ability. Pe’Shon Howard’s more charitable hand at the point (4.5 APG), has helped the offense average 73 points in the 4 games since his return. And Sean Mosley has been able to settle into his preferred role as 3^rd scorer/box score filler.

So, time to get down to business against the 11-4 NC State Wolfpack.

Wolfpack Strengths:

1)   No more Sidney Lowe. Seriously, of all the guys I’ve seen coach a college basketball game, Lowe was down at the bottom of the barrel. The Terps haven’t lost a game to NC State since 2005, which was the last time Sidney Lowe wasn’t coaching the team. Coincidence or Unsolved Mystery?

2)   Like most young kids, they play well with others. NC State dishes out 17.8 assists per game (7^th in NCAA), and is the only team in the ACC to have 5 players averaging 10+ points per game. The team also does a good job of finishing possessions with points, shooting 48% from the field (3^rd in ACC).

3)   Two extremely talented sophomores. CJ Leslie is a hyper athletic power forward who has scored in double digits in all but one game this year, and blocked three or more shots in 6 games. He’s an above average mid range shooter for his size, and should be a matchup problem for Maryland whose bigs will have trouble keeping up with him.

Lorenzo Brown is a stretched out point guard (6’5” 189) who has flourished at the position in his second year (remind you of anyone?) His 6.7 assists per game are second in the ACC to Kendall Marshall, and have helped pace the formerly scattered Wolfpack offense.

4)   One exceptional shooter. Scott Wood’s recent three point cold streak has him down to 47% from beyond the arc from a mark that stood at a mindblowing 54% midway through December. And yet somehow by launching threes, Wood is forsaking the best part of his game. He has not missed one free throw this year in 31 attempts. He is the resident floor stretcher in Raleigh, as Maryland witnessed last year when he went 5-7 from downtown.

Wolfpack Weaknesses:    

1)   Outside of Wood, this is a team of stonemasons, (31% from three).

2)   Despite supreme athleticism at some spots, and the occasional petty theft (3 players averaging 1+ steal per game), NC State plays very uninspired defense (69 ppg, 219^th in NCAA), especially on the perimeter where opponents are knocking down threes at a 37.8% rate (305^th in NCAA).

How Maryland wins this game:

            Although it’s a communist offensive system, the Wolfpack offense hinges heavily on Lorenzo Brown whose 6.7 assists are tops on the team by a wide margin. If the defense can hassle him into some uncharacteristic mistakes (which is a definite possibility with a sophomore point guard, even a talented one), the NC State offense will get very messy very quickly. Pe’Shon Howard is the better defender of the backcourt duo, so I would expect Brown to be his assignment.

Stoglin’s defense always borders on questionable, but he’ll have a unique challenge against the NC State back court, which is not only uniform in scoring (Wood, Williams, and Brown all average 12.5 points), but also in size (all three range from 6’5” to 6’6”). Stoglin is too valuable to hide on the bench in favor of a lengthier lineup, so he’ll need to make up for his lack of size with effort.

Maryland fits the profile of a young team in that they have a lot of trouble with turnovers, so much so that early in the season their assist to turnover ratio was regularly negative. Pe’Shon’s return has stemmed that tide against lesser opponents, but obviously Maryland doesn’t have the top-25 caliber talent or ironclad defense to overcome carelessness. A relatively clean game (less than 10 turnovers) would go a long way towards a win.

As I stated earlier, NC State has been very unsuccessful guarding against the three. One person (god forbid two) sinking a couple of money balls along side Stoglin would help soften the lane for Len’s post moves and Stoglin’s drives. Since Sean Mosley is shooting an acceptable 39% from downtown, and because the game being close is contingent upon him showing up anyways, I’ll peg him as one of the gunners. Nick Faust came out of high school labeled as a shooter, a label which has since been peeled off due to a 20.5% average from three. Just two or three treys from him would spread the Wolfpack defense like jelly.

So to recap:

1)  Peer pressure on Lorezno Brown. Harass him all day long and force him into some bad decisions.

2)   Conversely, make smart passes on the offensive end, and keep the turnover numbers in single digits.

3)   Sean Mosley, whose production flickers like a broken light bulb, needs to be firmly switched on. At least 15 points from the senior leader of this team.

4)   Keep the NC State defense honest by knocking down some three’s on a defense that almost begs you to.

My prediction:

            Being a Maryland fan, I obviously want the team to win this game. But, I just don’t see them pulling this one out on the road against a team that rebounds well, scores evenly and efficiently, and has a deadeye three point shooter capable of stretching the floor for their athletes. NC State 82 Maryland 71. 

Jets/Knicks Weekend Notes

For the past six years, Brian Schottenheimer has been a schizophrenic of an offensive coordinator, and nowhere was that more evident than on Saturday. The first drive of a the game was Schotty at his best: a flawless 10 play 52 yard march that finished in a manner befitting of his contract extension (an uncovered touchdown pass). The first quarter jinx appeared a distant memory, and the Jets looked well on the way to dismantling a below average Giants defense.

And then…nothing. No continuity, no innovation, and most importantly no points for the better part of three quarters. Schotty obstinately stuck to the air on a day where Sanchez couldn’t even get the landing gear up. From halftime on, the Jets played with their hair on fire and refused to even acknowledge what had been a successful ground game (4.2 yards per carry). All things considered, the defense may have played their best game of the season considering the amount of time they spent on the field due to the offense’s blink-of-an-eye drives.

Rumors of Schottenheimer’s firing would give some closure to Jets fans that want to know the answer to the chicken or the egg question with the offense. Namely, was the offensive ineptitude this year more due to a subpar play caller, or a backup quarterback masquerading as a starter?

If Schottenheimer were to be axed, the logical next head on the chopping block will be the much-debated quarterback. This team has now spent three years trying to construct this offense around Mark Sanchez with the results being average at best. I really want to like Sanchez, he looks and talks like a quarterback, and occasionally he even plays like one (especially in the playoffs). But in his third year, there are too many days like Saturday where he’s as accurate as a drunken skeet shooter. Even though his personal stats point to an incremental improvement, anyone who’s watched the Jets this year have seen a QB who has squandered some dominant defensive games with awful individual performances.  

Assuming that everything doesn’t fall perfectly for the Jets on Sunday, they’ll go into the offseason looking to build around Sanchez one last time. A new offensive coordinator is necessary, along with a new right tackle, and in my opinion a new second receiver (the receivers inability to get separation has erased the downfield passing game. As different as Plax and Santonio look in the mirror, their skill sets match up almost completely).

Wins will definitely help next year, but it would re-instill confidence to see Sanchez dictate some games. Long drives to keep a Super Bowl-caliber defense fresh would be a sight for sore eyes. So would a quarterback that doesn’t run hot and cold like a Katy Perry song. I hope Sanchez thrives in an offense that better suits him. But if he doesn’t show major improvements, it’s time to consider that maybe no matter how many tailors are brought in, he’ll just never wear it well.

 After watching one offense burn itself to ashes on Saturday, it was a relief to see one lit brightly on Sunday. For all of the Knicks struggles in their opening game, Amar’e was exceptionally efficient, and Melo was still the game’s premiere late game assassin. I respect the argument that the Celtics best player wasn’t on the floor Sunday, but I don’t think there’s one damn person in the NBA - past or present – capable of guarding Carmelo Anthony when he’s feeling it. His ability to block out any distraction, mental or physical, is consistently amazing.

But for all of their offensive talents, the two superstars aren’t known as the best or most willing passers. The issue was that on Sunday, they unquestionably were. Toney Douglas was average in all aspects of stewarding the offense, and never even flashed the ability to make an incisive pass for an easy bucket. Considering Iman Shumpert is now relegated to rehab, and my opinion of the lead footed Mike Bibby hasn’t changed, plenty of weight will be on the backs of the two stars until another one heals.  

The Knicks showcased just how good they can be (the firepower bordered on nuclear in the first quarter) and how quickly it can all turn ugly (the baby pool depth was exposed in the third when a tentative Stoudemire choked off an already sputtering offense) all in the course of 48 minutes. The defense was much improved…until the big names accumulated fouls, and willingly handcuffed themselves. Landry Fields looked much more comfortable in the offense…until he missed two shots and made like Harry Houdini.

Just like last year, nobody will know exactly what the Knicks are for at least a few months. In Baron Davis, the Knicks could be returning a potential All-Star quality point guard who can not only facilitate the flow of the offense, but also assume primary or secondary scoring responsibilities when the Big Two are off the floor. Until then, this is a team that will rise and fall with the shooting percentages of Melo and STAT. 

Knicks Preview Part 3: Are you ready for the fun part? Because this is the Fun Part.

I hated writing the last part of this preview, because it's depressing to write about the negative aspects of my teams. I’m not oblivious to the issues that the Jets and Knicks have, they’re exposed on a regular basis. But I’m usually not masochistic enough to pour salt in my own wound. After bad losses (and I can’t remember a good one) I generally go on a sports-free cleanse for 2-3 days. No Sportscenter, no sports websites, and unless I’m more angry than bummed out, no writing.

But, now that the formality of mentioning the Knicks terrible bench is out of the way, it’s time to remind everyone that the biggest issue facing the Knicks is just that: the bench. The backcourt does have questions, but remember when the answer was Chris Duhon? Or having to hope that Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry could mesh? Next time you see someone, remind them that the Knicks frontline is better than theirs, because for the first time in franchise history, it’s true for the entire league.

Just to put in perspective how unique of a pairing Amar’e and Carmelo are, here are all of the teammates that have combined for 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 45% shooting (sorry Antoine Walker) over the past 10 years.

Year	Teammate #1	Teammate #2	Result
2000-2001 - LAL	Shaq (29/13/57%)	Kobe (29/6/46%)	NBA Champion
2000-2001 - SAC	Webber (27/11/48%)	Stojakovic (20/6/47%)	W Conf Finals
2001-2002 – LAL	Shaq (27/11/58%)	Kobe (25/6/47%)	NBA Champion
2002-2003 – LAL	Kobe (30/7/45%)	Shaq (28/11/57%)	W Conf Semis
2004-2005 – MIA	Wade (24/5/48%)	Shaq (23/10/60%)	E Conf Finals
2005-2006 – MIA	Wade (27/6/50%)	Shaq (20/9/60%)	NBA Champion
2006-2007 – LAL	Kobe (32/6/46%)	Odom (16/10/47%)	W Conf 1 round
2009-2010 – LAL	Kobe (27/5/46%)	Gasol (18/11/54%)	NBA Champion
2009-2010 – CLE	LeBron (30/7/50%)	A. Jamison (16/8/49%)	E Conf Semis
2010-2011 – NYK	Carmelo (26/7/46%)	Amar’e (25/8/50%)	E Conf 1 round

            Whether you’d like to take this with a grain of salt, or toss the shaker over your shoulder is up to you. Every single one of these teams made the playoffs, and four of them got parades. The question asked ad naseum by analysts is “can Amar’e and Carmelo co-exist even though they both need the ball?” If you force two geniuses to work towards a common task, they will eventually find a way to combine their prodigious talents. Both of them have individual accolades stacked head high, now all they have left to do is brand themselves into the brains of basketball junkies worldwide with a title in a city that is famished for one. 

            Carmelo’s game is as smooth as his name, and he has done a good job shaving down any rough edges over the years. After starting his career laying bricks from beyond the arc (3 of his first 4 years were under 30%), his percentage has increased 3 of the last 4 years to a career-high 38% in 2010. He’s morphed from an underwhelming rebounder, to an occasionally dominant one (18 double doubles last year). That new facet to his game is just another way for an already exceptional offensive player to put the ball in the bucket.

With those improvements, there’s a good argument that Carmelo has the most complete offensive game in the NBA . When he’s having an off shooting day, he stacks up cheap points with hard nosed rebounding and dead-eye foul shooting. When Melo is on, he collects scalps. A 29 point effort against LeBron last year was only mildly impressive when compared to his embarrassing of Andre Iguodala in Philadelphia, and complete evisceration of Paul Pierce in Game 2 of the conference quarterfinals. And that’s without mentioning his uncanny ability to roll the closing credits at the end of games.

            All that’s left for Melo to do is spread the wealth a little more with his 1a, Amar’e. Although his vision is usually focused on the hoop, Carmelo sees the rest of the court very well. The issue is not whether he and Amar’e will share the ball, it’s how well they’ll do it. The two of them started to connect on a few great passes last year, and if that continues, theycould lay waste to defenses all year long.  

            There were 8 players in the NBA last year that averaged 20 points a game, and shot over 50% from the field. The list includes four regular season MVP nominees (LeBron, Dwight, Dirk, Wade), the rookie of the year (Blake Griffin), one of the MVP’s of the postseason (Zach Randolph), the most underrated player in the NBA (LaMarcus Aldridge) and Amar'e Stoudemire.

STAT has range out to the 3-point line and beyond (10/23 from 3 last year), and when he’s completely healthy, borders on unguardable at the power forward spot (unless there’s something you’d like to say about that Kevin.) He’s capable of erasing a shot or two every once in a while, but is otherwise a marginal defender. Fortunately, his game meshes eerily perfectly with the new tower that will be standing next to him.  

            The Chandler acquisition shows that Mike D’Antoni’s recent confidence is shared by the front office. Within the past two years, the Knicks have transformed from a payroll-bloated punch line to a team that has pieces in place to compete for an NBA championship, and this move reflected that transformation.

            My biggest thought on the Chandler signing was that it ensures the Knicks will get plenty more miles out of Amare’s knees. As opposed to having to drive over rocky terrain all season (guarding the Boshs, Boozers, and worst of all Howards of the world) he’ll have smooth travel on defense guarding the second best big on the floor night in and night out.

            Chandler is a player that all of the perimeter defenders can feel comfortable funneling their man to. He is not only a great individual defender, but a leader the caliber of Kevin Garnett in his ability to quarterback the defense, and hedge out on screens. His presence on the court will be a shot of life to a team that was sorely in need of one.

I’ll close my thoughts on Chandler with this. If the Knicks had brought in Chris Paul, it certainly would have sold out the Garden for the foreseeable future. But the addition of Tyson Chandler gives them a better chance to sell out the Canyon of Heroes. The last 10 NBA champions have all ranked in top 10 in field goal percentage defense, allowing an average of 43.3% opponents field goal percentage. Last year the Knicks tied for 26^th in the NBA in field goal percentage defense (47.2%). Chris Paul would have provided a beautiful product for fans to watch, but wouldn’t have addressed the elephant in the room (lackadaisical defense). Chandler may not be a cure-all for that issue, but he’ll certainly prove more of an antidote than Paul ever would have.

And just a quick note on Baron Davis, whose first name has legally been changed to “Motivated”. Baron represents the possibility for having a talent advantage at three spots on the floor against the majority of the NBA, which should say all you need to know about the correlation between his play and this team’s title chances. At 32, Baron's athleticism may no longer be explosive, but it should still be present, along with his top flight strength. The criticisms on his conditioning have certainly been valid, but he's just a year removed from averaging 15 and 8 when his best teammate was balding ADD-posterchild Chris Kaman. 

Worst case scenario, the bulging disc in his back never totally heals, and the Knicks are left with a stiff, out of shape, questionable shooter (32% career 3-point shooter) coming off the bench. Best-case scenario, Baron is a top 5 point guard in the eastern conference, shows off some of his elite-level passing, and shaves his beard at the end of the season; on top of a float. 

Knicks Preview Part 2: The Important Part(s) Missing

There is no hard and fast template on how to win an NBA title. But every single champion in recent memory has one thing in common: a great system of unheralded understudies, a strong bench. Most have followed one of two schools of carpentry: assembling a wealth of above average talent that complements the team’s strength, or a super sub or two to carry the second unit.

Detroit won a championship with one of the better (and deeper) overall benches in recent memory. San Antonio brought in battle-tested veterans Robert Horry and Michael Finley. Boston’s stingy defense was bolstered by lockdown subs Tony Allen, Leon Powe, and James Posey. Dallas stored packets of instant offense on their bench with JJ Barea, Shawn Marion, and Peja Stojakovic.  

The spokesmen for the super sub method are Lamar Odom, Manu Ginobili, and Jason Terry. All three started less than half of the games during every championship run their respective teams made, but they were capable of carrying a subpar second unit with their outstanding individual talents.

By this logic, the ideal Knicks bench would have either a bevy of outside shooters to keep the offensive juice flowing, or one exceptional scorer with an ability to shoulder the load in the event that Carmelo and Stoudemire both have to come out of the game. Instead, the bench has an identity crisis, with seemingly no continuity between the pieces assembled. One way past his prime veteran, an offensive abomination, and a great shooter except when he isn’t (0-11, really?!) coming right up.

Mike Bibby:

            I keep trying to convince myself into the Bibby signing. He’s a cheap former all-star with playoff experience. But there are just so many questions with signing a 13-year veteran who was an average distributor and a bad defender IN HIS PRIME. At this point in his career, Bibby has one trick (shooting the three), and plenty of red flags.

FUN FACT: In the past 5 seasons, Mike Bibby’s average rank AMONG POINT GUARDS in assists per game is 23^rd.

 MORE FUN FACT: Bibby’s average rank amongst his peers in Assist to Turnover ratio is 20^th.

If this were an Eddie House in Boston situation where Bibby was being asked to come off the bench and nuke the offense while the starters rested, I’d be a lot more optimistic. But he’s being brought in as the legitimate back up point guard for this team, even though the skills that made him an effective point guard (his ability to run the fast break with the Kings, and outstanding free throw shooting) disappeared a long time ago.

One of the things that makes a great point guard is the ability to make the right decision after penetrating. Bibby hasn’t gotten close enough to the basket to prove he can be a good passer in years. He would be an OK pick up for a few teams as a spot up shooter, not as a point guard (care to comment, Miami fans?). If he’s the backup point guard this season, there will be even more pressure on Toney Douglas to keep the old shell of Mike Bibby on the bench more than on the floor.

Jared Jeffries:

            It amazes me that Jeffries shows up on the bench at some point every year, despite being the antithesis of everything Mike D’Antoni wants in a player. Maybe Mike keeps thinking it’s Channing Frye and he’s waiting for the MonStars to give his talent back.

            Jeffries’ offense is so inconceivably putrid that I’ve had a tough time coming up with a good way to relate it to non-Knick and non-basketball fans alike. Bringing him into a game is like the bizarro version of pulling the goalie in hockey. When Jared Jeffries comes into a game, you are hoping to improve your defense while completely sacrificing whatever spot he is playing on offense. It’s an upside-down power play, or a designated fielder.  

            I think Mike Woodson might have the good sense to place him in his natural habitat this year: the press. Jeffries is PERFECT for the press: an extremely agile long-limbed player who can guard almost every position on the floor unless he gets pushed around. A Jeffries-Shumpert press would be like trying to bring the ball up against Mr. Fantastic and Dhalsim from Street Fighter. It would provide a whole new dimension to the Knicks defense. Otherwise, Jeffries is about a useful as a three-legged chair (without a jump shot).

Bill Walker:

            When I watched ABC Camp highlight tapes, Bill Walker was an athletic freak of nature. I would say those days are long gone, but they aren’t. Walker’s 24, meaning those tapes are from only about 6 years ago. Nevertheless, Billy’s knees have been hacked up like a Thanksgiving turkey at this point, which has left him with an incomplete puzzle of the talent he used to possess.

            Walker’s career is now a cruel trick. He’s a phenomenal in game dunker with no way of getting to the basket, because his movement is as poor laterally as it is great vertically. On the other end, he can get up to block some shots, but is a revolving door on the perimeter. The secret on Walker is that he’s developed a sneaky great touch from the outside (of players that took at least 100 3’s in 2009, he had the 9^th best 3 point percentage).

            Really what walker represents to me is a poor man’s Shawne Williams (somebody the Knicks really need to resign).

The rest of the bench isn’t really worth dedicating a full page to. Former first round pick Renaldo Balkman (see Isiah’s not a great drafter all the time) is accurately described as a possible 10^th man by John Hollinger. I don’t know who Chris Hunter is. I know Devin Green better for having a documentary about him than being a 29 year-old undrafted journeyman. Josh Harrelson will make more of an impact modeling Wrangler’s new “cut-off” line than on the court. In case you were wondering, THIS IS FAR FROM A PLAYOFF CALIBER BENCH.

Best-case scenario: nobody gets hurt and the starters manage to stay out of foul trouble. Worst-case scenario: one of the big three does get hurt (Stoudemire would probably be the most unfortunate) and this team takes a nosedive.

The Knicks would be wise to deal with Williams & Williams (Shawne and Reggie). Both were long range-gunners last season (30^th and 9^th in 3 point percentage respectively), which would help prevent teams from packing the paint against the daunting duo of Stoudemire and Chandler. Shawne brings the added ability to guard 3’s and 4’s effectively. Also, I’d like to wake up Christmas morning with a backup point guard who can perform point guard-ly duties. I’ll get back to the Knicks great starting 5 tomorrow, but know this: The Knicks will make the playoffs because of their starters, but they’ll lose because of their bench. 

Knicks Preview Part 1: The Post-Grads in the back court

With the ink officially dry on Tyson Chandler’s $56 million dollar contract, the Knicks now have one of the more talented and versatile front courts in all of basketball. His addition addresses some perceived weaknesses (toughness, interior defense) and completely eradicates others (rebounding). If the truly BIG three manage to stay healthy for the compacted season, it’s safe to say they won’t be the culprits for another banner-less season at the Garden.

            The weak spot of this team now lies in the backcourt, where optimists see potential, pessimists don’t see a point guard, and everyone with eyes sees inexperience. Save for elder statesmen and resident defensive statue Mike Bibby, the Knicks rotation will rely heavily on three guards with a combined three years of experience. With the chips stacked high in the front court, the Knicks bet for a championship now rests on a few long shots they acquired in the past two years.

            The occasional intrusion from Bibby won’t change the reality that the Knicks created once they freed themselves of Chauncey Billups’ contract. Toney Douglas will be the ringmaster of the show at the World’s Most Famous Arena. I’ve been steadfast in my support of Douglas, and I still think he’s in the process of really learning how to play point guard for the first time in his career. Considering he was the seminal source of offense for Florida State, it’s a safe bet that Toney has been a primary offensive option since at least high school.

            But there are indicators that Douglas is due for a career year at the point. The small sample would be his 9 starts last year where he shot 52% from the floor and averaged 5.7 assists. A larger one would include his numbers post-Melo trade, which improved in nearly every area (in those 28 games he averaged 4.5 assists to 1.2 turnovers, while shooting 43% from downtown). Obviously, those numbers will be difficult to sustain with increased minutes, but I believe Douglas' post-trade play was more foreshadowing than mirage.

Most importantly, his assist to turnover ratio was an astounding 3.73, which would rank him among the most efficient point guards in the league over a course of a full season. That number will regress as he attempts a higher quantity of more difficult passes this season, but it should stay well over 3. I wouldn’t trade Toney Douglas for Jamal Crawford, and I definitely wouldn’t even consider a swap for JJ Barea. Douglas has all the raw tools to be a great point guard, and by the end of the year the Knicks will not have to address the point guard problem, because there won’t be one.

If I wasn’t completely convinced Landry Fields’ stay in New York was just going to be a layover, there would be a 6 on my Knicks jersey instead of a 1. For a guy whose name prompted groans and Google searches throughout the entirety of New York on draft night, Fields proved to be one of the better draft values in Knicks history. He rightfully has a reputation as a hard worker, which manifested itself in several areas.

Regarded as an average shooter in college, Fields’ percentages saw major jumps in his rookie year. His 49.7 field goal percentage was 5^th amongst all shooting guards, and his 39.3 three point percentage made him a reliable kick out option in D’Antoni’s three heavy offense. Most notably, Fields proved himself very un-shooting guard like in his willingness to do the dirty work. At season’s end, he was tied with Dwyane Wade as the best rebounding guard in the NBA last year.

The logical prediction this year is for a Fields regression, and I won’t try and say that he’ll make the leap to star status. But thinking Fields will simply fade into the bench would be discounting all of the work that he’s already done. Fields’ number may never threaten the rafters anywhere, but I see him settling in as the Knicks version of Tayshaun Prince.

Both Fields and Douglas have previous NBA experience to draw upon when predicting their futures. The same cannot be said of rookie Iman Shumpert whose resume is a long list of daunting questions. What position should he play? Can he shoot? Will he create more turnovers on defense or offense? Shumpert is sushi-raw; the floor is Gerald Green, the ceiling is Andre Iguodala.

If D’Antoni were a chef, Shumpert would be the nicest raw ingredient there is. There is no limit to what can be done with it, he just needs to know what steps to take to make it sing. The staff will have some work to do untangling the knots that Shumpert developed under Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech. But in a league full of the world’s best athletes, Shumpert’s measureables stand alone near the top of the heap, highlighted by his unrelenting on-ball defense. but there’s so much potential left to unlock.

D’Antoni has a history of cold-shouldering young players in favor of veterans, but it would be unwise neglect a talent this prodigious. By all accounts, Shumpert’s jump shot has shown signs of thawing, and his great defense is the mark of someone willing to work hard to improve their game. This year I’m expecting Trevor Ariza reincarnate, albeit slightly smaller. A lightly used role player with outstanding defense and the capability of sending the Garden into a frenzy with some awe-inspiring finishes.  

           

Quick Predictions:

-        Douglas is going to be somewhat frustrating out of the gates. The combination of his first year starting and the brevity of training camp will give him some headaches. But his terrific defense and outside shooting should keep him above water until he acclimates himself completely. Mark my words, there will be games this year that you won’t care that the Knicks lost out on Chris Paul.

        

     Fields will get the majority of the minutes at the 2. His stats may not jump off the page (with the exception of rebounding), but watch for some subtle improvements or new areas to his game. Maybe more accurate passing, or an increased willingness to take his man off the dribble. In Conclusion, the numbers may not look a lot better, but the player will.

-       The majority of Shumpert’s minutes will be at the 2, and he’ll be Jekyll and Hyde throughout the course of games. The turnovers and jumpers will be ugly at times, but his Kevlar tight defense of opposing guards and nitro boosters in his legs will make those moments ultimately forgivable.

-       Mike Woodson will at some point employ an awesome press of Douglas and Shumpert with Jeffries roaming against some guard deficient teams and make their life getting over half court a living hell.