Fred Wilpon is trying to kill the Mets fan base

This has been an all-time "don't watch Sportscenter" week for me. The Jets were a complete mess from start to finish in their biggest game of the season. The NBA is about as relevant as the ABA at this point. But bar none the most frustrating thing is that the Mets are in the midst of losing the best player they’ve had in 25 years for essentially nothing. No prospects in return, no high round compensatory draft picks: nothing.

The Mets had a full season to decide what to do with Reyes. Although there were clearly several offshoots involving, there were two schools of thought on how to deal with the Reyes situation: keep him around and hope he has enough of a connection to the team to resign at a discount, or use his astronomical trade value to fatten up a thin minor league system.

At the beginning of the year, I wrote that I favored the latter. I don’t think anybody was delusional enough to think that a team with a rotation anchored by Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey was one capable of making a playoff run. With the right trading partner, the Mets would have been able to name AT LEAST one A-list prospect, and maybe two or three more high level players. It would have closed the book on an exciting but underperforming era of Mets baseball, and addressed the primary long term need that every team has: developing the minor league system. 

The other option that appealed to more sentimental fans was to wait the season out, and break the less than considerable bank for Reyes. There were a lot of flaws to this plan. Outside of financial constraints, Reyes’ stock tanked due to leg injuries in the second half. By the end of the season, he was considered more of a risky high-end investment than a franchise player. However, Reyes connects to Mets fans in a way that no player I've ever seen has. He's an exciting, charismatic homegrown superstar, which is just the type of player that develops loyalty in a fan base. 

Obviously, the Mets appeared to take the second route. But as the weeks passed by after the season ended, and meetings transgressed between Reyes’ people and the Mets, there were no whispers of a concrete offer. Instead, the team frittered away their time to try and convince Reyes to return to a place that he admittedly loves, and let other suitors get involved.

What really gets me though is the lack of any sort of plan. I have been a fan of a team with inept ownership, but I never doubted that they cared about winning. James Dolan has made some indefensibly awful decisions as the owner of the Knicks. In hindsight, signing Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph looks preposterous, but Isaiah Thomas explained that the team was trying to get bigger when everyone else was getting smaller. Did it work? No. But although the results were poor, the idea to improve was there.

So let me put a question to any Mets fan or baseball fan reading this: how does this process with Reyes show that the Mets care about getting better? They aren’t looking short term (signing free agents) or long term (trading Reyes and Wright and starting over). The Mets are no longer a team to the Wilpons, they are an asset, and one that the owners apparently have no intention of improving.

Jose Reyes represented the best chance this team had to improve, whether he was playing for them or traded somewhere else. And they did nothing with him. They’re not getting exciting prospects in return for him. They’re not getting his contract off the books so they can position themselves for a run at a free agent pitcher. They are simply slashing payroll because the owners are hemorrhaging money.

Maybe all of the Miami talk is just posturing, and Sandy Alderson is playing his cards inside his vest. But if the Mets lose Reyes for nothing, it is a slap in the face to a proud fan base that has sat through two of the most brutal collapses I’ve been witness to in any sport. It will say that until the Wilpons have cleared their desks out, there is no point in rooting for this team, because the Wilpons aren’t interested in giving you something to root for. 

#3 - Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Why It’s this High:

The epicenter of college basketball shifts along Tobacco Road from Durham to Chapel Hill. As opposed to just about every rivalry I've listed so far, this one is the unquestioned alpha dog in its sport. No rational person can argue against North Carolina-Duke, a long running rivalry between two power programs that have really upped it to another level since the dawn of the millennium. Collectively, they have owned one of the most talented conferences in the country.

Duke holds a 14-9 edge since 2001, and an even slimmer 9-8 advantage since the hire of Roy Williams in 2003. Each team has won 2 national championships within the past 10 years, and they have respectively dominated the ACC regular season (UNC has finished with the conference’s best record 6 of the past 10 years) and postseason (Duke has won the conference tournament an astounding 8 times in 10 years). 

What makes college basketball rivalries the most unique is that for the most part, they remain unchanged for years because of the coaches. Every coach in the country has a style that they prefer to run. Jim Calhoun USUALLY likes to play an extremely physical style of basketball, with an anchor in the paint on defense (Okafor, Thabeet, Adrien) and a shooter on the wing (Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton, Denham Brown). Calipari's dribble drive offense eschews pinpoint shooting for over the top athleticism, and routinely draws in top point guards. Just like those two coaches, Williams and Krzyzewski have been successful enough to have their pick of high school seniors, and tailor their selections to their respective coaching styles. 

It’s no secret that Roy likes to run and that his first priority is lighting up the scoreboard (from 2003 to 2009, the Tar Heels ranked an average of 4^th in scoring offense), so he populates the team accordingly. It’s usually a safe bet to assume that the Tar Heels will be lead by a grease fire fast point guard (Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson), some hyper athletic bigs (Brandan Wright, Ed Davis, John Henson), and the occasional dead-eye shooter to spread the floor (Wayne Ellington, Rashad McCants). UNC always seems to be a step ahead on the recruiting trail, probably because Williams’ style is more fun to play. But he puts a lot of trust in the instincts of his players, so when those instincts are poor, the results can be disastrous (2009-2010).

If you’ve watched Duke in past 20 years, you know that their success comes from their ability to out-execute other teams to death in half court sets (last year’s UNC game in the ACC tournament is a textbook example). The system Coach K runs doesn’t require the most athletic players (the national championship back court was John Scheyer and Nolan Smith). But recruits need not visit Duke if they can’t sink open threes, or are careless with the ball. In a day in age where kids are negotiating shoe contracts before they can tie their own laces, Coach K holds in high regard the ability to correctly take a charge. People who want to see exciting basketball hate watching Duke play, but basketball purists marvel at the machine that’s put together every year.  

Occasionally, each of them has rebuilt their system around one player (Roy slowed his frenetic pace down for Hansbrough, and Krzyzewski sped his up for Jay Williams), but usually the games are about whether the Blue Devils perfectly coached precision can trump the Tar Heels’ supreme athleticism, and that dichotomy of styles has resulted in some memorable battles.  

Of the 23 games they’ve played, I’m sure fans of either team can rattle off a few of their favorites/nightmares: Duhon’s game winner in overtime, Duke’s defensive stand in 2005, Carolina’s furious comeback later in that same year, and UNC’s back to back wins at Cameron when both teams were ranked in the top 5. I can literally sit here all day and talk about all of the games played between the two teams (especially since the Williams hire), because almost all of them were played between highly ranked teams in front of raucous partisan crowds, and 13 of them were decided by 10 points or less.   

And what’s great is, this year should be more of the same, in fact it might be better. North Carolina starts the year with an NBA-ready front court of Zeller and Henson, and the most talented player in the country in Harrison Barnes. Duke again has a bevy of shooters with Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, and the mirror-shattering Ryan Kelly at the 3, but they also have a wild card with the explosive Austin Rivers. UNC is the consensus #1 in the country, while people are already saying that the Blue Devils are overrated at #6. Regardless, both of these teams will be in the national title hunt at the end of the year, and the two games that they’re guaranteed to play will just add to the storied history that they already have.  

Why it's not higher:

The postseason series is slanted heavily towards Duke. The Blue Devils have played UNC three times in the ACC tournament, winning all three by an average of 13 points. And most importantly, they haven’t met in a national postseason tournament since the 1971 NIT. Granted, it would take a mutual Final Four for the teams to match up with eachother on most occasions, but considering the success both teams have had, it’s surprising and disappointing.

For all of the things at stake in the games these two teams play (the ACC Championship, national ranking, bragging rights), there hasn’t been a win or go home scenario between the two in a long time. The games still definitely mean something, but there is always a game afterwards for both teams. Maybe the two teams are good enough this year that they do end up meeting in March, but until then it doesn’t make sense to me to put this in front of the next two rivalries on my list.  

#4 - Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers

Why it’s ranked this high:

Hate. There are plenty of other reasons that I’ll mention later, but after putting a lot of thought into it, I can’t think of two fan bases that share a mutual disdain like Alabama and Auburn do. Duke and North Carolina fans can commiserate over some very average Carolina professional teams. I’m willing to bet that there are more than a few Oklahoma fans who share common ground with Texas fans over the Dallas Cowboys and possibly the Texas Rangers. In Alabama there are no professional sports teams, which is probably good, because I don’t think anyone would really care. Down in Alabama, New Years Day is at the end of November.

But just because two very talented teams are natural rivals, it doesn’t guarantee an epic ten year stretch of games. The Celtics and the Lakers played two NBA Finals worth of games against each other, but there were no exceptional games, and plenty of bad ones. The 45-3 game last year is one of the rotten apples in the bunch of games that the Pats and the Jets have played recently. Fortunately, blowouts have been an uncommon occurrence in the Iron Bowl’s recent history (8/10 games decided by 10 points or less), and the previous two games fit better in a movie script than a box score.  

2009’s “throw out the record”-type of game saw #2 Alabama get their stiffest test of the season from an unranked Auburn team. After winning their first 7 SEC games by an average of 17 points, the Iron Bowl pushed Alabama’s undefeated season to the very limit, with Auburn holding the lead until a 79-yard drive gave Bama their first lead with 1:24 left in the 4^th quarter. Even after losing 4 of their previous 6 games leading up to it, the Iron Bowl brought out the best in a very average Auburn team.

Last year, both teams were at their best, with Auburn taking on the role of undefeated road team heading into Tuscaloosa. Alabama came out and swinging and knocked the Tigers on their asses with three touchdowns in the first 15 minutes. But the Cam Newton show was simply delayed. Even with the Tide holding major advantages in 1^st downs (23-18) and total yards (446-324), Newton eviscerated the Alabama defense. He not only stemmed the Tide, but rolled over them himself to the tune of four total touchdowns, including the game winner to Philip Lutzenkirchen early in the 4^th. Two years, two uniquely entertaining games both with 4^th quarter lead changes, between two of the premiere teams in the country. Add the storied tradition of the Iron Bowl in, and those games make the jump to legendary status among fans of each team.  

Michigan and Ohio State may be the media darling of college football, but then again it’s difficult to glorify ecological terrorism like poisoning all the trees in Auburn’s grove. Not to mention, “the Rivalry” hasn’t been relevant on the national stage recently, and it doesn’t appear either team will be for quite a while. On the other hand, Auburn and Alabama are about as relevant as you can get by those standards.

Since 2001, there have been only 12 undefeated seasons in college football. Alabama and Auburn have accounted for three of those, the only three that the SEC has had in that time span. With the SEC being far and away the best conference in college football, that means that despite a flawed BCS system, there were three years in which Auburn and Alabama were unquestionably the best team in the country because of the gauntlet they had to run to achieve perfection.

And as much as I do like the novelty of a neutral field in the Red River Rivalry, it just doesn’t have the same intensity as a series that switches between Auburn and Tuscaloosa every year. The Rammer Jammer cheer (a glorified version of Gary Glitter), from a crowd of thousands of students is awesome to hear. I can’t imagine a more difficult road environment than what the visitors face every year in the Iron Bowl.  

Why It’s Not Higher:

            Because while 9 win seasons have been like clockwork for Auburn since 2001, they have been significantly more elusive for their in-state rivals. From 2003-2007 (aka the Mike Shula era plus Nick Saban’s first year), Alabama won only three more games than they lost (33-30). Although the games during those years were still hotly contested (decided by an average of 7.4 points), Auburn still won all 5 of them. There was still regional pride on the line for the winner of the games, but Bama’s mediocrity ensured that was all that was at stake.

            I think the only other real major issue preventing this rivalry from being in the top 3 is that while Auburn and Alabama are both national title contenders, they may not be the best team in their division, a distinction that belongs to the LSU Tigers. Between the three teams, LSU has averaged 10.6 wins a year since 2002, while Auburn has averaged 9.6, and Alabama has averaged 8.8. Alabama-based teams have won the last two national championships, but LSU has captured two in the last ten years with a very plausible third well within reach this season. It’s nitpicking at this point, but it’s a flaw that the top 3 rivalries don’t share.

            Regardless, college football is a sport full of the most passionate and intense fan bases in the country. It’s the only major American sport where trophies change hands during regular season games. But despite plenty of heated rivalries throughout the country, no weekend carries more weight than the last Saturday in November in Alabama. 

Cam Newton could reshape the QB position

In sports, I’ve always been a sucker for when the going is good, it’s going to get better. In the middle of John Maine's scoreless streak a few years back, I believed he was going to be the anchor of the Mets rotation. I am convinced that Aaron Maybin has turned a figurative corner like he continues to turn actual ones, and that Toney Douglas can eventually be the premiere point guard on a basketball team. Which is why I may be jumping in front of this train instead of on it; but as of right now, I legitimately think it’s just a matter of two or three years until Cam Newton is the most dominant player in the NFL.

In the first 8 weeks of this NFL season, Newton has shown that all of his otherworldly athletic gifts translate directly to the pros with no exchange rate. He has the arm to make almost any throw on the field, the legs to run away from people, and the strength to run at them. With Manning and Brady, you marvel at their accuracy, and with Vick you marvel at his raw talent. But Cam Newton has the ability to dominate every phase of the game he chooses like no quarterback ever has.

What I didn't like about Newton coming out of college was that you really couldn't find anyone to compare him to. In many ways, the NFL is a think "outside the box" league in terms of personnel (look at how tight ends have gotten smaller and faster, starting with Tony Gonzalez).

But not with quarterbacks, where the idea of a dual threat QB has failed over and over again. Vince Young? Not enough arm strength, even worse accuracy. Michael Vick? More than enough arm strength, but not big enough to absorb getting T-boned by a linebacker. And it goes back further: Andre Ware, Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, the list goes on and on. While they bring certain unique skills to the table, they lack other very necessary ones to be successful in the NFL.

But what it looks like with Newton is a Hakeem Olajuwon type of situation. Olajuwon's skillset for a center was something that was completely unique. There hasn't been anyone else that large with his foot work, or quick hands (ball handling and steals). Just like there hasn't been an athlete the size and speed of Cam Newton able to not only chuck the ball downfield, but capable of grasping a complex offense and thriving in it (61% completion rate through his first 8 games). 

From what I've seen so far, the most accurate description of him is a cross of Donavan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger. He's Roethlisberger's height - but about ten pounds bigger - and with a slightly lower completion percentage in his rookie season. But, he already has more rushing yards through 8 weeks (319) than Roethlisberger has ever had in a season. Which would then make Newton more like McNabb, who routinely averaged 5 yards per carry during a season, and who could at times take over a game on the ground or in the air.

 But McNabb didn't have a 60% passing season until his 5th year in the league, and more importantly, was constantly criticized for his inability to show up in the big moment. For all of the physical talent that McNabb had, he was missing the most important component: he never had the mental part completely down, and was prone to doubting himself and coming apart at the seams at the worst possible times. In short, he was soft.

 By all indications, Newton is not built that way. If anything, he was so overconfident in the pre-draft process that it was mistaken for extreme narcissism. What NFL scouts wanted to hear is how much he knew he'd need to adjust how his style of play from college the NFL. What they got was a kid talking about how he wanted to be an icon before he even broke a huddle.

After torching the SEC (the equivalent of a league between D1 college football and the NFL) he's still the same size or larger than most linebackers, and faster than practically all of them. DeAngelo Hall admitted last week what I already assumed: defensive backs don't know how to tackle him, and don't really want to figure it out. With most quarterbacks, there’s always a tool missing, even if it’s not apparent. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are sitting ducks when the pocket breaks down. Michael Vick is dynamic, just like Steve Young was, but bounces around like a pinball when he’s hit. Cam Newton has all the tools in the toolbox, and then a few more just for show.

 What Newton is, is a completely mold breaking athlete comparable to LeBron or early 90’s Mike Tyson. He's hard to tackle and confident like Roethlisberger, with McNabb's foot speed, and Bo Jackson on the goal line (3rd in the NFL with 7 rushing TDs). He’s Daunte Culpepper with actual work ethic, a clean bill of health, and experience in big games. If he pans out, you will see 10 more Drew Brees’ before you see another Cam Newton. If the Panthers surround him with a decent team, they’ll win divisions. If they surround him with a good team, they’ll win Super Bowl’s, and there’s not a doubt in my mind about it. 

Thoughts on the NBA lockout

         

           This lockout passed ridiculous well before David Stern stayed home from school sick yesterday. Obviously, there are major differences between the players and the owners in terms of what the revenue split should be, the length of a max contract, and a number of other issues. But it’s as if both sides haven’t even looked up from the monumental hole they’re digging to see whether anyone cares if they pull themselves out.   

            It’s common knowledge that the only league that could weather a prolonged lockout (especially in this economic climate) is the NFL. The rabid demand that this country has for football, combined with only two days a week to watch it make for huge numbers in every area that it touches. Football is America’s game now and its national popularity is unrivaled.

           The NBA’s national popularity is certainly going to take a hit from this lockout, but only a jab at worst. But regional popularity, the support of individual teams, is what fuels the national presence. And that’s where the NBA is going to get hammered.

           People are fans of a team first and foremost, not the NBA as a whole. I watch the NBA because I am a Knicks fan, not vice versa. I usually make it to 2 or 3 games at most a year, and would try and make it to more if I had the money. MSG is appointment TV on game nights regardless of what else is on, regardless of whether the point guard has been Chauncey Billups or Chris Duhon. 

          The finals were one of the most highly rated ever because of how regionally polarizing they were. Dallas and Miami fans obviously tuned it because their team (and it disgusts me that the Heat are “Miami’s team” when in every sport outside of football, Miami has possibly the worst fans in sports) had a chance to win it.

          I watched it for two reasons; of course to see a high level of basketball. But what superseded that was that I only wanted to see it from one team. I was OK with watching the best player in the whole league fail miraculously because of he screwed MY team in the offseason. I’m sure plenty of Chicago fans felt the same way, and all of Cleveland probably huddled around one of the two functioning TV sets left there, voodoo dolls clutched firmly in their hands.

            Plenty of people that watched the Finals this year weren’t that concerned with seeing a high quality of basketball. They just wanted to see LeBron (or for Toronto fans Chris Bosh) fail because of a team allegiance. And I'm sure this extends to different fan bases. For example, during the Magic-Lakers finals, Celtics fans probably shared the same sentiments about Kobe Bryant. 

            If or when the NBA comes back this season, there are 10 or so cities that will welcome it back as if it never left, and about 5 more who will take a while to warm up, but return in full force within a month.

           But the NBA is going to lose major ground is in swing cities where basketball and hockey were on level footing in terms of regional support before the lockout. Cities where all the fans that live and die with the NBA sit in one section, adrift in a sea of casual fans who come to games because of the atmosphere of the event, and not any particular tie to the team. 

            The obvious cities are the ones far enough north that the ponds freeze. Minneapolis, where the Wild outdrew the Timberwolves by an average of 3,000 fans per home game last year, would certainly qualify. But looking into it further, this makes sense in Minnesota, a town that isn’t exactly steeped in basketball tradition. Moreover, the Wild have regularly given their fans something to cheer for, while the T-Wolves haven’t sniffed a winning season since Garnett left town.

            The trend is reaching even farther south into more important cities. I’ve lived in the Washington D.C. area for long enough to know that people down there could really give a shit less about the Wizards.

            Even with a potential franchise savior in John Wall, the Verizon Center is first and foremost where the Capitals play. Back in 2007, the last time the Wizards advanced to the playoffs, was the last time that basketball was the main draw. The Wizards had an average home attendance of 17,962, and the Capitals averaged a meager 15,472.

            Since then, the tables have turned completely. Last year the Wizards averaged slightly under 17,000 fans per home game, good enough to fill 83.2 % of the Verizon Center. While the Caps, who have built an exciting team around possibly the best player in the sport, averaged 18,397 fans per game, which filled the Verizon Center to capacity.

            But obviously the issue is not just about walk-up attendance this day in age. The interest in a team can be gauged just as accurately by TV ratings. According to Sports Business Journal last year, the Capitals finished the year with a 1.8 average to the Wizards 1.15, that’s a 57% gap between the two teams. What’s more, the Caps appear to be trending heavily upward (the 1.8 was up 12% from 2009), while the Wizards essentially numbers have essentially stagnated for the past few years.

            Judging by these two numbers, it’s safe to say that despite being south of the Mason-Dixon line, Washington is pre-eminently a hockey town. And it's obvious just by going to games; the Verizon Center comes to life when the Capitals are there. There are more people, making more noise, who care much more about the outcome of the game

            Now, with the NBA not showing any interest in maintaining the small fan base that they have in Washington, those numbers are likely to skew even more towards the Caps, even when the Wizards eventually slog back into the Verizon Center with their subpar squad.

            And Washington is just one of several cities. Take Boston for example. If basketball comes back in December, Boston fans will be coming back to a team on the downside of its apex, without a bench presence capable of effectively spelling the well-aged starters.

            Or, they could continue to support the reigning Stanley Cup Champions stocked to the brim with 27-and-under talent in their quest for a very plausible repeat. In Boston, the Red Sox run the town with the flavor of the week always determined by who has the winning ingredients. I defy any Boston sports fan to tell me that the Celtics have a better chance of winning a championship than the Bruins this year, so why wouldn’t Boston fans place their faith and attention with the surer bet?

            What Philadelphia fans are going to turn their attention back to a middle of the road 76ers team, when they have the option to watch a serious contender with the Flyers? The same argument can be made for Detroit. The Charlotte Bobcats, despite playing in a city almost double the size of their hockey competitor, did not outdraw the Carolina Hurricanes last year.

            And as this lockout continues to drag on and on, even the die hard fans get tired of being treated like shit. With the Jets mustering all the offensive firepower of a gas station sparkler, I need the distraction that basketball usually provides, but there’s nothing to follow right now. No news about how the rookies are acclimating because they have nothing to acclimate to. The normally non-stop gossip of the free agent rumor mill is non-existent.

            The only NBA news trickling out has been copy and pasted day to day for the last few months; the owners and players obstinately sticking to their guns on the same 4 or 5 issues, and having less successful lock-in’s than the bloods and the crips did in South Park. It’s fucking depressing.

            So my two options are to delve deeply into politics for the 6 days in between Jets games, or watch hockey. Needless to say, the precious little I know about the Islanders is much more than I ever thought I would. With the most intriguing college basketball season in years still weeks away, the Islanders are all that's on tap right now.

             I never originally latched onto hockey for a number of reasons (one of which being that I never played it, which I think is tied very heavily to following a sport. I skate like a baby giraffe walks because my freakishly tall and thin dimensions aren’t meant to function in skates. Stop making it look so fucking easy Zdeno Chara).

            But the primary one was that I never thought it would catch up in popularity with the NBA. And I don’t think the NHL would ever have a chance of catching up if owners and the players could decide how to tie the NBA’s shoes.

            It’s evident in every conversation I have, or Facebook status that I see from an NBA fan that the lock out is wearing very thin. It’s becoming difficult to rationalize caring so much about the return of a sport that so transparently could give a damn less about its fans.

            The complete lack of urgency or progress during this lockout tells me one thing. At one point during the meetings, the fans have inevitably been mentioned, and completely dismissed with the notion of "don't worry, they'll be back, let's continue banging our heads against a wall."

            And I will be back, because I can't cut ties with a team that I've been following since I was 4. Because after sitting through 10 years of Keith Van Horn for Tim Thomas, the Curry-Randolph front-court tandem swallowing the whole pre-game buffet and then the ball, and simply having to deal with Isiah Thomas’ existence within the organization, I feel like the Knicks owe me something. But somehow, I think I’m going to be looking back at plenty of people wondering where the hell I’m going. 

3 changes the Jets should make

After the last 2 years, it’s safe to say at 2-3, the Jets are a team that could and should be playing much better. There were a few casualties from 2010 to 2011, but the overall impact of those losses shouldn’t have reduced the product on the field to an offense incapable of moving the ball, and a defense as good at stopping the run as the offense is at sustaining it. This isn't Kansas City where a team took advantage of an easy schedule, or Pittsburgh where the offensive line is a shell of what it used to be. I still firmly believe this is a playoff team that has trouble hearing the starting gun for the season, and for most games.  

Realistically, the general anger towards this team is the result of one road loss. If the Jets had hit .333 on their road swing instead of coming back to New Jersey with a big fat goose egg, there would still be some worries, but losses in Baltimore and New England are certainly forgivable. But because of an upset loss in Oakland, and the subsequent offensive debacle in Baltimore (albeit without the services of by far their best offensive player) there has been a media backlash two years in the waiting.

There aren’t many teams capable of digging themselves out of a hole in the AFC East. The Jets are one of the teams with the talent and favorable schedule to do so. Combine that with the Bills being average the rest of the way (and a defense that is 30^th in the NFL will tend to produce those results), and the season is far from over. If the Jets make these three changes, I don't see how they finish any worse than 10-6. 

1)   Make sure Collin Baxter and Vlad Ducasse never see the field again:

            The offensive line looked night and day better with its most talented player back on the field Sunday, but Mangold’s return doesn’t address a huge depth issue. The first two blockers off the bench are more than likely Collin Baxter and Vlad Ducasse, who collectively will be paying of Sanchez’s chiropractic bills for the rest of the season.

There is no way that two players on the free agent market aren’t markedly better than those two human sandbags. Damien Woody said this morning that he would at least answer a call from the Jets, and that’s something definitely worth looking into. Woody’s pass blocking skills have diminished over the pass few years, but he’s still a strong run blocker that helped pave the way for the Jets dominating running game the last two years.

If Woody decides he’s done for good, there are still veterans out there right now (Shaun O’Hara, Nick Kaczur) who would not only come relatively cheap, but would be a huge upgrade at this point in the season. They were obviously cut for a reason, but I think the chief issue with them was and is durability. Neither of them is capable of lasting for an entire training camp and a 16 game season as a starter. However, if the Jets were to pick up one of those guys during the bye week, it would immediately provide much better offensive line depth and insurance against another injury to a starter.

2)   Keep the laundry off the field

Although the Jets have played within the guidelines in the majority of their games, this weekend yellow flags rained from the skies. Were it not for the 89 penalty yards that the Jets racked up, there’s a decent chance that they could have pulled off the upset in Foxboro.

Anybody who’s watched this team play for the past two years will admit that it’s not the most dynamic. But while the Jets have been loud and aggressive off the field, they have usually been relatively disciplined on it. In 2010, the Jets averaged 5.9 penalties per game for 52 yards over 20 games. During this three game losing streak, they’re averaging 8 penalties per game for 73 yards. The Jets played three games total that met those criteria last year (atleast 8 penalties for atleast 73 yards).

The Jets don’t need to be choir boys; the new two-hand touch rules don’t jibe with how they play defense. But back breaking penalties like the one in the first quarter on 3^rd and 26 when New England was on their own 12 last week are going to do two things. They're going to make it more difficult for an already average offense to score points, and they're going to put too much pressure on the defense to sustain a very high level of play. 

3)   Make LT the starter at running back

It’s crazy to look on the roster and see LaDainian Tomlinson, who might be the best running back of the past 15 years, listed at #2 on the depth chart. Now obviously, he’s not in the Hall of Fame form that he was as a Charger. But that shouldn’t make people blind to the idea that Shonn Greene is a better option as the starter

I really liked Shonn Greene when the Jets drafted him out of Iowa. He was and still is a powerful straight ahead runner with a gift for wearing down defenses. But for a number of reasons, I don’t think he’ll ever be able to sustain the success he had in the 2009 playoffs. The biggest issue being that he’s borderline useless as a receiver.

 The Jets are trying to force feed him passes this year (he has 12 catches in 5 games when he only had 16 all of last year), but even that’s not working. Among the 29 running backs with at least 10 catches this year, Greene ranks 26^th in yards per reception (5.9). LT on the other hand ranks 2^nd behind Ray Rice, averaging slightly more than 14 yards every time he catches a pass.

Although LT’s speed and agility haven’t aged that well, hands have a longer shelf life. And Tomlinson has some of the best hands at running back in the whole league. So this is not an issue of trusting an average back to run crisp routes and catch tough passes, Tomlinson has proven his whole career that he’s capable of that. The ball needs to come his way more.

The idea that Greene is a non-threat in the passing game is what allows defenses to load up against the run, or blitz when they see him on the field. Because he’s not capable of breaking a short pass for a long gain, opposing teams can sell out against an up the middle run, and unsurprisingly Greene hasn’t averaged 4 yards per carry in any game this year. There is no element of surprise with someone with such a one-note skill set.

The other side of the issue comes with the offense. If Tomlinson is in, and Sanchez sees a jail break blitz coming, a viable option is to audible to an empty look, and get a favorable matchup with a linebacker or safety trying to cover LT on a passing route. I’d be willing to bet anything that any empty sets are quickly discarded when Greene gets on the field. 

In the past two years, the Jets have lost eight total games. In six of those games, Tomlinson has caught two or fewer passes, including two total catches for six yards in the losses against Baltimore and New England. By contrast, they are 5-2 when he has 5 or more catches in a game. When Tomlinson has carried the ball 15 or more times in a game, the Jets are 7-2 since last year. Even just as a runner, he had a higher yards per carry than Greene last year (4.17 to 4.14).

The system that worked was to use LT until he tired out, and then have a fresh Greene at the end of the season. I have no idea why this team has deviated from that philosophy, when just about every metric says that when LT is at his best, he’s a much more effective option than Greene.

Ravens vs. Jets Preview

Considering Maryland took a week off last week, I think I’ll take a week off from writing about them. See if they can handle Towson at home, and then I’ll try to reattach the axles to the Maryland bandwagon

First and foremost I’m a New York Jets fan, and they’ll be playing about two blocks from my house on Sunday. So let’s get to breaking down a game between two of the top contenders in the AFC behind the standard of excellence, the Buffalo Bills.

Why the Ravens should win this game:

In their two wins, the Ravens have been dominant, outscoring Pittsburgh and St. Louis by a combined 72-14. Obviously, the Steelers win is going to continue to look better as Pittsburgh continues to round into form, while the Rams win could depreciate for the opposite reason. 

They’ve looked like a better team in the first three weeks than the Jets. Even their lone loss doesn’t look as bad, with the Titans playing like a legitimate contender until Kenny Britt’s leg exploded last week. If I had to break it down position by position, the only spots that I could definitively give to the Jets would be defensive backs, and offensive line if Nick Mangold is healthy this week.

Specifically, The Ravens offensive personnel could be a particularly difficult matchup for the Jets if Cam Cameron plays his cards right. Looking into DVOA, the Jets are unsurprisingly the best in the league at holding #1 receivers in check, but from there it becomes somewhat murky. The 8^th in league rank vs. #2 receivers could take a hit this week considering that either A) Cromartie will be playing with a bruised lung, or B) Kyle Wilson will be face a major step up in competition.

The weakness of the Jets pass defense lies in their coverage of tight ends (25^th in DVOA). Jason Witten had 6 catches for 110 yards in week 1, and even Kevin Boss had a 28-yard catch last week. The Jets two starters at safety are undersized (Jim Leonhard), and shaky in coverage (Eric Smith) respectably. Even if Brodney Pool makes the occasional appearance, this week is the perfect time for the Ravens to unleash Dickson and Pitta over the middle.

Obviously the most obvious plan of attack for the Ravens would be pounding it out on the ground after seeing what happened last week against Oakland. But bear in mind two things: Darren McFadden is possibly the best running back in the NFL at this point, and this is almost the same defense that shut down Ray Rice last year (21 carries, 43 yards). As a Jets fan, I have to think that the strategy will be to keep the best player (Rice) from making a huge impact, and making Flacco win this game.  If he stays away from Revis, and works on Cromartie and the tight ends, he should have an efficient, productive day on the way to a Ravens win.

Why the Jets should win this game:

            Flacco and Sanchez aren’t separated by much this year. They’re 12^th and 13^th respectively in DVOA and DVAR, which measures how much better they’ve been than an average NFL quarterback. Flacco has more TD’s and fewer picks, but so far this season, Sanchez’s completion percentage is demonstrably higher (62.5 to 54.1). That number tells me that Flacco has dodged a few bullets this year with his inaccuracy, and an opportunistic Jets defense could jump on those (see the Jacksonville game). 

Flacco has been outstanding out of the gates this year, going a combined 17/28 for 295 yards and 4 TD in 3 first quarters. But as you can guess by looking at his season stats, that means a disproportionate amount of Flacco’s production has come early in games. Although the Ravens have essentially put away two of their three games before halftime, Flacco is still only a 50% passer (22/44) with a TD and an INT in second halves this year.

Sanchez has been completely the opposite, completing 20/33 passes in 3 fourth quarters this year, and throwing 4 of his 6 touchdowns after halftime. What this all comes down to is that Sanchez has crunch time reps, and it’s accurate to say that he excels late in games. Could Flacco if he was put in the same situation? I don’t necessarily think so, considering he hasn’t thrown a 4^th quarter touchdown since Week 10 of last year. So if this game is close late, I think the advantage swings heavily towards New York.

To win Sanchez needs to establish Holmes and Burress. The Ravens should do a very good job of taking away Dustin Keller and LaDainian Tomlinson (3^rd in DVOA vs. tight ends, 5^th in DVOA vs. running backs). The Ravens struggle on the outside of their defense, where Cary Williams and LaDarius Webb are two subpar corners who have had a lot of trouble containing big time receivers like Kenny Britt and Mike Wallace. Holmes has shown in the past two years that he’s capable of going off for a big game against an overmatched corner.

So I expect the Ravens to shift the coverage towards him, leaving Plaxico Burress in a lot of single coverage over on the other side. Mark my words, if Plax has a big day (say 6 catches for 80 yards and a TD), the Jets will win this game. With him producing, the Ravens can disguise coverages as much as they want, the Jets will just have too much firepower against an average Ravens secondary.

Ravens win if

Dickson and Pitta get over 120 yards combined.

Ray Rice gets over 150 total yards and a TD

Plaxico Burress has under 60 yards receiving

Flacco’s completion percentage over 60%

Jets win if:

The game is within 7 points going into the 4^th quarter

Plaxico Burress has over 80 yards and a TD

LaDainian Tomlinson over 100 all-purpose yards and a TD

Ravens score 14 points or less in the first half