#2 - New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Why it's this high:

Baseball has been slowly fading from the national consciousness over the past decade. Empty stadiums around the country are a testament to that, and the waning interest hasn’t discriminated when it comes to success (the Marlins and the Rays have had trouble filling their stadiums with World Series contenders). But as it stands right now, just as it has been for the past 100 years, no two teams in any sport share a rivalry as strong as the Yankees and the Red Sox.

            Eventually, a movie will be made about the two consecutive ALCS’ between the teams in 2003 and 2004. And just like any good sports movie, it won’t hold a candle to what actually happened. Those two series were sports at the highest level, with the stakes as high as possible, between two mortal enemies.

2003 was supposed to be the year the Red Sox exorcised all of their considerable demons. An ALCS win against the Yankees and a World Series in one fell swoop. But even a 5-2 lead couldn’t hold up to heat of the Bronx in September. Grady Little lead his team to their most regular season wins since 1986, and yet was publically eviscerated for a decision that any manager – or baseball fan for that matter - would have co-signed on. Of course Pedro ended up coughing up the lead, but Little had few other options.

The Red Sox bullpen, which had been stellar through most of the series, was overworked by a poor outing from John Burkett the night before. The three relievers not tapped were a 37-year old journeyman (Mike Timlin), the makeshift closer with an unsightly regular season ERA (Scott Williamson), and a lefty who had 46 strikeouts in 61 innings (Alan Embree). Little made the right gamble to bet with his ace, and for that he was run out of town with a two-year record of 188-136. Four innings later a flat knuckleball from the master of the craft sealed Boston’s fate, and ensured that Aaron Boone will never buy a drink in New York, even though he was only there for a few happy hours.

But all 2003 did was set up bar none the greatest role reversal in history. With the offensively impotent Cardinals waiting in the World Series, the Yankees had champagne chilling in Fenway after massacring Boston in the first 3 games by a score of 32-16. It legitimately looked like the curse was never going to end. Four games later a dirty Dave Roberts jersey went from a rag to a collectors item, a bloody sock was on its way to Cooperstown, and the Sox celebrated an unfathomable win in an otherwise dead silent Yankee Stadium. 

            Both teams were forged out of overwhelming pressure to succeed, albeit from different places. The Yankees of the 2000s were spurred on by the hyper-competitive George Steinbrenner. When his teams failed to collect trophies, George collected heads. His impetuousness bordered sports radio caller territory, and even the perceived untouchables were namedropped when the Canyon of Heroes was left empty. Joe Torre’s even keeled approach helped to stabilize the locker room in season, but even he couldn’t shelter players from the Boss’ annual fall cleanings.

            The pressure in Boston came less from the deep-pocketed ownership, and more from one of the most tortured fan bases in all of sports. Before 2004, Red Sox fans began bracing for the team’s annual fiery wreck after three game losing streaks in June. High fives were rare at Fenway in August, as by then the fans had chewed their fingers down to the bone. Boston contained all of the overwhelming pressure to succeed, but with the looming expectation of disastrous failure.

Without even discussing the playoff wars of ’03 and ’04, the Yankees and the Red Sox bulging payrolls meant that the stars were out when they faced off. Pedro vs. Jeter (Jeter was 22/89 vs Pedro as a Red Sock), Clemens vs. Manny (Manny was 6/34 off Clemens as a Yankee), the whole Red Sox lineup against death, taxes, and Mariano Rivera (the Sandman has been Krueger-like to the Red Sox with a 2.82 career ERA). Because of the sheer number of times they faced each other, there are just so many more great moments than any other rivalry on this list, even if you just included the regular season.

            Although the major players of the past 10 years are retiring left and right, this past decade had characters that added more to the story than anyone in the past century. Pedro seemed to take a certain delight in buzzing Bomber towers, even threatening a posthumous plunk for the guy who started all of this. Clemens transparently DESPISED the Red Sox for letting him go, more than enough motivation for a guy already hopped up on Icy Hot jockage. Pedro was serenaded with “Who’s your daddy” in the Bronx, and Clemens received other choice words in Fenway. Manny Ramirez, who spaced out for games at a time, was always at his locked in best at Yankee Stadium (.321 career batting average).

            But what puts this rivalry at the top of this list is the pure scope of it. Wherever you go across the country, you’ll find fans of both persuasions. In most major cities, there’s at least one bar draped in pinstripes, and one where someone will tell you how “Nomah nevah gawt his prawpah due”. All of these other rivalries on this list are between two great teams (or people), but not necessarily the two most important. Whatever way you slice it – payroll, TV ratings, earnings, ticket sales – the Red Sox and the Yankees are the two biggest teams in baseball, with the best rivalry in the sport, which has peaked in the past 10 years. No other two teams have all three of those arguments.

             

Why it’s not higher:

            Well at this point, there’s only one higher than this, which I’ll be writing when Paris runs red with clay. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the pre-eminent team rivalry, but there’s a limit to the vitriol two teams can produce now. With player movement through free agency and trades at an all-time high, colors matter more than people at this point. With a pen and a razor, Johnny Damon went from public enemy number 1 to left fielder number 18. One of the only places CC Sabathia doesn’t have beef is with the Red Sox, and Jon Lester none with the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz make dinner reservations with eachother.

Of course there are the mainstays on each side, and obviously each team wants to beat an opponent they face more than anyone else the rest of the year. But with too many even keeled personalities on each side, this rivalry has lost a little bit of the fire that made 2003 and 2004 so intense (fortunately the Red Sox hired Bobby Valentine, which should change that shortly). With spring training just around the corner, it won’t be long before the yearly war for the AL East begins again. 

How the Knicks Keep This Going

I root not to lose at this point. After seeing every promising team at best flame out and at worst crash and burn, I lose optimism at the first sign of trouble, and hope that when my teams do fail, they have the courtesy to do so when a liquor store is still open. So, when my predictions are wrong (especially midseason predictions) it usually means I'm happy. Really, my last prediction was more of a foregone conclusion: the Knicks season was going to go in the tank with the starting lineup of Tyson Chandler, JV-level jump shooter Jared Jeffries, Billy Walker's gross looking dreads, 2012 Landry Fields, and Jeremy Lin.

Well, Jeffries has apparently channeled the dark arts in order to start knocking down shots, Bill Walker has been replaced by ridiculous sharp shooter Steve Novak, Landry Fields has turned the clock back...a year, and Jeremy Lin may very well be the adopted child of John Stockton and Steve Nash. I'm an idiot, and the world is wonderful. So since giving up on my teams hasn't worked out well, I'll take a page out of the Costanza playbook. This Knicks team is finally ready to fulfill its preseason promise. A rejuvenated Amar'e is going to average 20-25 the rest of the way, Carmelo will pull a full Clark Kent, take off the hipster glasses, and go back to being one of the best clutch shooters in the NBA, and Jeremy Lin will be the master key to this offense. The Knicks will not only make the playoffs, but will win at least their first round series and maybe more. Just a few minor changes...

There needs to be more time standing up than sitting down for Novak

At the beginning of this year, I said that the best benches are those that compliment the coach's philosophy. Well, if this is going to be a textbook D'Antoni offense the rest of the way, Steve Novak fits as the type of sharpshooter that can keep defenses from clogging the lane, or at least give them pause before they do it. He is a career 42% 3 point shooter, so although he's knocking them down at a coin flip rate right now, the regression to the mean won't be too drastic. The Knicks have one of the better inside tandems in the league with Chandler and the soon to be revived Stoudemire, and a player that usually demands a double team in Carmelo Anthony. The strategy against the Knicks should be to pack the paint and make inside buckets difficult to come by. The fact that Novak will knock down open shots in his sleep, and his off the radar range (he nailed one from nearly halfcourt against Minnesota) will make teams think twice about collapsing into the paint or doubling Carmelo.

Split up Amare and Carmelo

At this point, it's relatively obvious that Amar'e and Carmelo don't fit very well together on a basketball court. The best way to deal with this (without having to trade one of them) is using them on different units as much as possible. Carmelo showed last year that he can not only function, but thrive on a team full of scrubs against Boston in Game 2. He doesn't need a point guard or a complimentary scorer, and sometimes he he's at his best without either of the two. Let him wreak havoc on the second unit with Shumpert, Walker, Jeffries, and Chandler. With Lin's effective grasp of the P&R, Tuesday should be the beginning of a return to all-star form for STAT. Those two along with Novak, Fields, and possibly Walker once Baron Davis returns should form an undersized team, but one capable of putting the ball in the basket in a number of different ways. D'Antoni needs to take a cue from Michael Mann: just because you have two stars doesn't mean you need to push them together all the time, as long as the work as a whole speaks for itself.

The next few games are only in need of frosting (at Toronto, vs. Sacramento, vs. New Orleans), and with only three tough games left until the All Star Break, the Knicks should be looking down at .500 by the halfway point this season. Just for once, let me be right.

Knicks Reality Check

In order to ignore the soul-crushing reality that 60-70% of New York fans are skipping around cloud 9 in drunken elation today (which includes my entire extended family), I’ll try and bring down everyone's collective mood in the best way possible: talking about the Knicks.

             I wrote a few weeks ago about Maryland basketball being the type of frustrating team that’s ultimately forgivable. They play hard, and occasionally even look like the better team, but end up ultimately succumbing in most of their games because when it comes down to it, they just don’t have the goods right now.

            The Knicks this season are the antithesis of Maryland. After being dealt garbage cards for the past decade, this looked like the year Knicks fans finally caught a hand to cash in on. Coming off of a playoff series against Boston that made me Wikipedia Murphy’s Law to see if it had been proven, the Knicks looked promising to start the season. 

            Carmelo and Amare alone weren’t going to make the Knicks a championship contender, but they were going to make it dangerous. A high-powered speed boat with a newly purchased anchor in the paint capable of blowing out inferior teams and putting a scare into 90% of the league. There were holes (the bench, a young inexperienced backcourt) but there were also finally stars IN THEIR PRIME back playing on Broadway. And if Baron Davis healed up quickly, or Landry Fields took a step forward, or the Toney Douglas in my mind finally manifested himself on the court, the possibilities would become even more intriguing.

            Around this time, I was expecting to be embroiled in a battle for a home playoff series. The reality is scrapping for the right to face powerhouse Chicago with the likes of the Bogut-less Bucks, and the still freshly buried Cavaliers. I was expecting STAT-stuffed first halves and Melo fourth quarter fireworks. Instead, Amare is embroiled in the worst season of his professional career, and Carmelo will be an All-Star in name only.

            And the worst part is, anyone can understand why they’re bad…but NO ONE can understand why they’re THIS BAD. The source of the most scrutiny is the lack of a top point guard, which is definitely a hindrance. But Jeff Teague (11 PPG, 5 APG) and Darren Collison (13 PPG, 5 APG) are the starters on two of the more successful teams in the eastern conference. Post-Melo trade Toney Douglas looked to be trending towards those numbers at the end of last season. But instead, it appears he’s completely lost cabin pressure, and Douglas has spent 2012 in a complete nosedive. His field goal percentage has dropped 9% and his 3 point shooting is down even further (2010: 37% 2011: 24%). What has happened to his scoring ability, and any semblance of basketball acumen, is anyone’s guess.

            Even if Douglas were to have a shaky hand at the wheel, Baron Davis was originally expected to come back and steady the ship. Now when he returns (which is anyone’s guess), he’ll be tasked with dragging the Titanic to shore. Baron When Healthy And Motivated Davis is a very talented point guard with good court vision and the strength to finish in traffic. He’s also at least 4 years past his prime, a career 32% 3 shooter, and has made one All-NBA team (3^rd team – 2004) in his entire career. Until he returns (at least three more weeks according to the Knicks) the team’s hopes at point guard will rest with Jeremy Lin. I’m as happy for Lin as anyone, and I’ve liked what I’ve seen the past two games, but what are the chances that a playoff team can be run by an undrafted 2^nd year player who averaged 16 and 5 in the Ivy League?   

            Mike D’Antoni’s career in New York has played out like a “Chopped” episode. A bunch of bizarre and sometimes unpalatable ingredients that he’s been forced to try and meld into something cohesive. This team as presently constituted certainly doesn’t fit his “seven seconds or less” pick and roll heavy offense. But just like competitors in the show, sometimes it’s necessary to go outside your style and literally think outside the box to succeed. Remember, this is a coach who has been credited with revolutionizing how offensive basketball is played.  

            So…why can’t he do it? Why do so many possessions look like they were drawn up for a fucking 6 year old team? With four players clustered to one side of the court leaving crossing their fingers that Melo will create something on his giant private chunk of floor. Why is the ball movement settled pond-stagnant? Why does one of the more explosive finishers in the game drift listlessly on his orbit 20 feet away from the basket, seemingly neglecting his ability to draw fouls and hammer home dunks in favor of conciliatory jumpers?

So as rough as Mike D’s job has been, his inability to adapt to what he’s been given has been astoundingly frustrating for someone of his reputation. Instead, with some good ingredients finally available, Knicks fans have been served the same plate of blue and orange chicken shit that’s been a house special since 2001, when there is finally chicken salad on the menu. On reality TV that gets a contestant kicked off the show.

            But where the hammer falls the heaviest is with the two names headlining the marquee. The coaching is certainly an issue, but nobody is delusional enough to believe the NBA is a coach’s league. Erik Spoelstra and Mike Brown have both reached the NBA finals and Vinny Del Negro is heading one of the best teams in the league. There are plenty of possible reasons that the Stoudemire-Anthony pairing has produced results well below its expected yield, but again, WHY?

Why wasn’t there a story this summer about the two stars getting together and talking about what they could each do (read: concede) to turn what should be into what is? Why is it that this marriage is just shy of a year old, and yet in their moments on the floor together, Amar’e and Carmelo still regularly look first date awkward?

And most importantly why, oh why, was tonight’s game with a cast of characters straight out of the Replacements the most entertaining, exciting, and ultimately satisfying Knicks game I’ve watched since Christmas? Six guys dressed up as the Knicks tonight and outperformed what has been billed as the “genuine article” for the past two months. This team of D-league all stars and bench players isn’t a sustainable source of wins, but the fact remains that the bootleg Knicks won a game against an above .500 team at home. A game I’m not sure the big league team would have pulled out. And it’s extremely worrisome the questions that thought brings up

Maryland plays Duke tonight, and they're going to win (Maryland vs. Duke Preview)

There is no other day that I miss being in College Park more than tonight. If you went to Maryland to watch some great college basketball games, there’s always one day you circle on your calendar. The Duke game is not a day, it’s a week. A week where all of your classes seem just a little longer, where anything blue just seems to irk you, and you wait a few hours in line outside Comcast waiting for the best seats you can get.

I bookended my college experience with a freshman year sweep of Duke, and a senior year win in Comcast for the ACC title. That last game was the best live sporting event I’ve ever been to, and I don’t think there will ever be another game that will match the manic atmosphere inside of Comcast that night. This is college basketball at its best, in one of the best home arenas in all of the sports. This is Maryland and Duke, and this is my preview.

What makes Duke not Terrible:

Contrary to the title of this section, I’m not a Duke hater. I think Coach K is the best coach to ever set foot on a college basketball court (the only two others in his category are Knight and Wooden. He has more wins than Knight, and Wooden had something of a talent monopoly at UCLA). As long as Mike Krzyzewski is at Duke, that team will never miss the tournament, and they will never be poorly coached. I thought Gary was one of a handful of people in the country capable of matching wits with Coach K for 40 minutes. Until I see how Mark Turgeon handles Duke’s adjustments throughout the game, I have to give a major coaching advantage to Duke.

The sun rises in the east, Derek Jeter sleeps with models, and Duke shoots a lot of threes. All of these are universal truths that will continue for at least the next 20 years (sorry 2012 conspiracy theorists). What’s most surprising is that with the cavalcade of shooters Duke has had in the past 10 years (JJ Redick, Jon Scheyer, and Greg Paulus all come to mind) not one Duke team has shot better than 40% from three as a team. With all of that said, this year Duke is currently on pace to eclipse that mark (40.9%, 7^th in NCAA). Andre Dawkins, Austin Rivers, and Ryan Kelly are all shooting higher than 40% from deep, and that means that Duke is capable of mini-runs that can quickly eliminate a deficit or conjure a lead out of nowhere.

Speaking of Rivers, he’s the most dynamic Blue Devil since Jay Williams, and after some early hitches, it unfortunately looks like he’s settling in as a dominating force at the 2-guard position (19.5 pts, 56% 3 pt last 2 games). He tends to be a black hole of sorts (3+ assists in 1 game this year), but considering how talented of a playmaker he is, it’s ultimately forgivable. It will be interesting to see if Maryland does have a single player that can stay in front of him.

Why Maryland can win this game (and I think they will)

            This is a very different Blue Devil team than the Terps are used to seeing. For the first time in a long time (not counting last year, because Kyrie Irving was out for 90% of it) the best player on the team by a mile is a freshman. The senior leadership that has characterized Coach K teams for the past 5 or 10 years is not there right now, and where that usually manifests itself is in difficult road environments. On the road in Atlanta, Georgia Tech was within one possession until the final minute of the game. In Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson cut a 9 point lead to 4 in a matter of minute late in the second half. Getting to the point, Duke has had trouble against bottom tier ACC teams on the road, Maryland is not in that bottom tier, which makes me think this game will be closer.

            Duke’s 3 point shooting, while admittedly impressive, hasn’t traveled well. Rivers was 0/5 from 3 in Duke’s 2 ACC road games, and Seth Curry has been frigid from the land of plenty as of late (25% from 3pt in last 6 games).

            This is a weak defensive team, especially at the guard positions. Of any team that Terrell Stoglin has faced this year, this is the one that he should be licking his chops over the most. Duke allows 69.2 points per game (227^th NCAA), and ranks dead last in the ACC in opponents’ field goal percentage (44.1%). There will be a lot more open shots against this team than there were against Florida State or Temple, it’s just going to be a matter of making them.

            This will be the first ACC game (besides Wake Forest) where Maryland should be favored to win the battle on the boards. Duke has one elite rebounder, Mason Plumlee (9.3 RPG), and two average ones in his older brother Miles (6.4 RPG) and Ryan Kelly (5.3 RPG). Other than those three, no other player averages more than 2 boards per game. A healthy Len (who fits more here against Duke’s half court heavy offense) along with Padgett and Pankey should be enough to give Maryland the edge on the glass and limit second shot opportunities for the Blue Devils.

            How the Terps Pull This Off:

I’m not a Dick Vitale fan, but when I was watching highlights from the 2004 ACC Championship yesterday, Vitale made a comment about Duke that I thought was spot on. He said the #1 rule against them is “thou shalt not help”, as in help defense can actually hurt when you’re playing Duke. Against Coach K’s drive and kick three heavy offense, this couldn’t be more true. If Austin Rivers gets by going to hoop, make sure the defense doesn’t collapse to try and stop the penetration, because he will kick out to an open shooter. 2 points is always better than 3, and Maryland needs to live by Vitale’s mantra.

Weather the storm from 3. At some point during this game (probably several points) Duke is going to hit back to back threes, or their offense will start clicking on a nice run. DO NOT panic. Maryland needs to remain calm when Duke inevitably starts hitting some big shots, and make sure they’re still getting good looks on offense instead of rushing back down the court for some sort of ill-advised quick retribution.

Contrarily, when Duke does miss shots and the Terps get the rebound, it’s time to run. This is not a very athletic team especially if both of the Plumlees and Kelly are on the floor at the same time. Temple beat this team by grabbing rebounds, and absolutely demolishing the Blue Devils transition defense with quick outlet passes and easy baskets. The blueprint is definitely there for Maryland to follow.

The Terps will need to score to win this game, and not just Stoglin but at least two other people. My money is on Sean Mosley, who seems to excel when he’s not athletically overmatched at the three, and James Padgett who should have a nice night on the boards along with a few fine moments in the post.

My Prediction:

Maryland needs to win this game to even remain in the peripheral conversation for the NCAA tournament. I don’t think they have anywhere near the number of advantages against Carolina that they do against Duke. This is the last chance on the schedule for them to really get a premiere schedule-defining win, and I think they do. I think the guards on Duke will be intimidated by the atmosphere at the Comcast Center, and the only players that could really ruin the night would be seasoned Comcast veterans Mason Plumlee and Andre Dawkins. The game is close at halftime, Maryland comes out with an early 2^nd half run reminiscent of the Gary Williams era, and Duke is never able to put together a sustained run of their own long enough to get back into the lead.

Maryland 74 Duke 71  

Let's make some changes: Terps Edition

In my experience, there are two types of underperforming sports teams to root for, and I have the distinct pleasure of having a basketball team in each camp right now. The Maryland Terrapins basketball team is the kind of underperforming that’s ultimately forgivable. They kind of remind me of every round of golf I’ve ever played. Every once in a while, for a streak of 2 or 3 holes, I look like an actual golfer. My drives are straight, my irons are smooth, and when I chip it doesn’t look like I’m trying to butcher a live cat. Things are good.

And then, just as quickly as that blissful oasis appeared, everything crashes back down to earth. My drives develop a wanderlust, my irons go from smooth to chunky, and you couldn’t identify the aforementioned cat by its dental records. But ultimately, I don’t really get that upset about it, and why? Because I know I’m not good enough to adequately correct my mistakes mid-round.

Maryland has the very same issue. In the first halves of the Cornell game and the Wake Forest game, they played some beautifully cohesive basketball. The ball moved effectively, Stoglin looked like he was playing pop a shot, and Alex Len’s strengths shone brightly. All was right with the world.

But the issue with that “zone" is the same as the one I encounter during golf. They don’t find the zone, they stumble into it. And because they don’t know how they got there, once the slightest thing goes awry, they fight to try to figure out how the hell they found it in the first place. Forced shots and turnovers ensue en masse.

The Terps are more than likely not a tournament team this year, but it won’t be because of lack of talent. Any time you have the leading scorer in the conference, there’s always a chance that UNC or Duke have their Buster Douglas moment against Stoglin and company. I am going to suggest three things that Maryland can do to make their swings less violent, and their good play more sustained.

I Wanna Be Like Mych:

There haven’t been a lot of positives about Maryland’s play the last five games, but one that has really jumped out at me has been the play of Mychal Parker. I don’t think there’s a more athletic player on the team, and after spending last year in the best seat in the house, it finally looks like the game is slowing down for him. His jump shot looks cleaner, he’s fighting hard for rebounds, and his drives to the basket result in a blocking foul or points more often than not. All of these factors add up to him needing more minutes.

Clearly these won’t come at the expense of Mosley, the senior leader who -despite recently underperforming - is the anchor for this team on the floor. So it’s time for Maryland to make the Parker for Faust switch. This is no reason to give up on Faust completely. He’s just one of the many 18 year olds who can’t seamlessly adjust to college ball as a freshman.

Right now, he looks tentative and jittery with the ball, his assists are just as common as his turnovers, and his jump shot is an explosion of limbs with the accuracy of a shotgun blast (32% FG, 19% 3pt). Turgeon needs to limit his playing time in favor of a steadier hand.

A lot of people gave up on Mychal Parker after last year. As Maryland’s top recruit, he barely played (6 MPG), and when he did get in Gary had a quick hook for his constant mental errors. He’s now getting 19 minutes a game to Faust’s 26 even though he’s been a better shooter, rebounder, and defender for this entire season. In the last two games he’s outscored Sean Mosley despite playing 24 less minutes. At this juncture, we know what Mosley is (an undersized forward with a great motor and schizophrenic scoring), and we know what Faust isn’t (an ACC caliber starter). Parker’s play merits more minutes, and I personally want to know whether he’s the next Sean Mosley or the next Landon Milbourne.

James is hungry:

Feed him. Last year, I never thought I would say these words, but James Padgett needs the ball more. Alex Len may have a lot more raw talent, but Padgett is stronger with the ball, and has a wider array of post moves (another sentence I thought I’d never say).

Right now there’s an opening for the second scorer behind Terrell Stoglin, and I think the strongest argument is for Padgett. He’s far and away Maryland’s most efficient scorer (51.3%), and after a rough start from the line, he’s rounded into form since the start of ACC play (73% FT’s in last 5 games). Half the time the guy doesn’t even need to set himself up, he leads the ACC in offensive rebounds per game (4.0). Not to mention the benefits that an effective post presence yields for the whole offense: higher percentage shots, and better looks for outside shooters.

He may not be Jordan Williams on the block, but with Howard, Faust, and Mosley erratic at best and irrelevant at worst, Padgett would provide a steady presence to counterbalance Stoglin’s mercurial ability. For a team that serves up turnovers like a Dutch bakery, simplifying the offense with more post entry passes couldn’t hurt either. Maryland is 9-1 when Padgett scores double digits this year, and 3-0 when he takes 10+ shots, it’s time to test whether those numbers hold true against some stiffer competition.

Stop forcefeeding me Alex Len:

Not just for my sake but for his. A lot of people (myself included) thought that after his first few out of conference games, Len would be the player to make the Terps bubble relevant. He’s not. Not right now anyways.

It’s easy to be seduced by the package that Len offers. He’s a true 7-footer with a nice shooting touch and surprising athleticism. But behind that shiny packaging, the necessary parts just aren’t there right now. When he puts the ball on the floor (which he shouldn’t be doing as much in the first place) it looks like he’s dribbling with oven mitts.

Because he doesn’t box out well, he’s routinely beaten for rebounds by guys who can’t reach his nose. And he’s just not in shape to play 30 minutes a game of up-tempo ACC basketball yet. He’s always the last one back down the court on transition defense, and when the opponent has a mobile big man (Bernard James comes to mind) he ends up picking up bad fouls trying to cover for his mistakes.

I don’t know whose fault it is that he gets the ball on the perimeter so often, but nothing good can come of that. The kid looks like a victim from ‘Saw’ deciding what to do with the live grenade in his hands. Whoever is culpable for it, there’s really only one way to solve the issue at hand. Play Alex Len less until he’s in better shape – physically and mentally – to handle the demands of the college game.

Faust had to make the transition from apples to oranges, and he’s struggling. Just imagine what this 18 year-old Ukranian kid is going through trying to acclimate to ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING IN AMERICA. The only way Maryland can screw up a kid this gifted is by forcing him to be the savior when he’s the one that needs some saving right now.

So there are my solutions. I’d want to see a starting lineup of Stoglin, Howard, Mosley, Padgett, and Pankey. Use Len as a “super sub” of sorts off the bench, and if he’s gumming up the defense on the break, give him a breather to collect himself. Parker should be the first off the bench for either Howard or Mosley, and Turgeon should test the limits of where diminishing returns start with him. I think Howard is finally starting to get his touch back after returning from knee surgery (7/12, 15 points vs. Temple), but his eyes still have a way to go (1.9 A/T ratio).

Next up is one of the two biggest games of the year (UNC on February 4^th is the other), and I think the more winnable one. Duke has some legitimate weaknesses (questionable defense especially from the guards, and only one elite rebounder). Just like the rest of the games this year, Maryland CAN win, they just need to relax and let the cat be.  

  

Winning Ugly: The Jon Kreft Story (Maryland @ FSU recap)

About 2/3 of this game was really fun to watch. Then Maryland threw in a solid 8 minutes of terrible basketball, and then it went back to watchable. Unfortunately, during those 8 minutes, FSU went on a 21-3 run, which shut the door on any chance of a MD win. Time for the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

The Good:

Terrell Stoglin has a company parking spot here for the season, and this game pretty much solidified it. Stoglin’s ability to put the ball in the hole all season has never been in question, but the combination of FSU’s defense and Maryland’s lack of scoring options (pretty much just #12) posed a threat to his offensive dominance.

            Well, in the first half of this game, Stoglin put the vaunted FSU defense to shame by scoring from all over the floor. Eventually he did go cold in the second half, but not before dropping 27 and showing that there isn’t a team in this conference that can guard him when he’s on his game. A few more assists like the shiny dime underneath to Berend Weijs for any easy dunk would be great to see, but Stoglin is a scorer first by choice and necessity.

Another good unheralded game from Mychal Parker, who had 4 points and 4 rebounds at halftime, and finished with 6 and 7. The Seminole defense effectively took away anyone who couldn’t beat their man off the dribble, and Parker was one of the few players on the floor capable of doing that.

His 7 rebounds were even more impressive in my opinion due to the lack of size Maryland had on the floor against Florida State’s XL front line. Parker knocked down both of his free throws, and even though his bad pass to Alex Len was one in the long string of Terps 2^nd half turnovers, overall he had a very nice game.

That sound you heard was a blip on Nick Faust’s EKG. Even though it came very late in the game after he started 0/3, Faust finally aired a teaser trailer and it showed why Maryland fans had such high hopes for him. The step back jumper that he drained from the left wing showed a swagger he’s been lacking all season. He also drew some fouls on his way to the basket, and was a part of an active and effective Maryland defense in the first half.

Faust may not be a 12 point a game player this year, but seeing him finally look confident in the flow of the game was a sight for sore eyes. Up until last night, I was lobbying for Faust’s seat on the bench, and although I’m still not high on him this year, I can now finally see why he inspired so much hope as a prep player.

The Bad:

            A while ago, I really thought Maryland would be able to outsource a bulk of their scoring to the Ukraine. The past three games have made it apparent that a lot of scoring - probably too much - will rest with Sean Mosley. Occasionally Mosley looks like a legitimate second scorer. He’s underrated at finishing around the basket, an average three point shooter, and has become a legitimate threat at the free throw line. Then he’ll have a game where you wonder if he even played. Last night was one of the latter.  

            A late 3 pointer was the only time Mosley’s name came up during the game. Other than that, FSU completely bottled him up, and he was never able to shake his defender whether he had the ball or not. Everyone knows that Mosley has never been the most athletic guy on the floor, which made it extra difficult for him to get free for a look. But he appeared defeated later in the game, dribbling once or twice and then immediately looking to shovel the ball to someone else. Plenty of teams in the ACC play good defense, and Mosley will need to find a way to get himself involved against the Virginia’s of the world. Run off screens, work the boards and draw fouls, just figure out a way to take more shots and have more of an impact.

            The forwards getting into foul trouble in the first half. Fair warning, I started watching this game with 10:00 left in the first half, and didn’t see Alex Len or James Padgett until after halftime. The fact that Maryland was able to only be -1 in rebounding at the break was an amazing feat considering their interior presence consisted of Berend “the Scarecrow” Weijs and 6’5” Mychal Parker.

The Ugly:

            Ugly is precisely the word for that 21-3 run. FSU’s defense switched back on, causing back to back to back turnovers, and they never looked back. Maryland looked completely lost on offense, with Pe’Shon Howard picking up a terrible charging call by bulling down the lane, and Sean Mosley trying an ill advised turnaround jumper which was blocked. Stoglin started pulling up too early in the shot clock (even for him), and since the team wasn’t settled, it lead to back to back uncontested Devidias Dulkys threes.

            These lapses have become an unfortunately consistent part of Maryland basketball this year. It happened in the other road loss to NC State, and even at Comcast against Wake where Maryland was able to pull up just quick enough to keep from crashing. Just one miscue can trigger a chain reaction, and because Maryland is such a young team, they don’t know how to deal with even the slightest bit of failure without complete panic. After they played inspired defense throughout the first half, Maryland bit on every pump fake, and allowed an average FSU offense to work to their strength (the free throw line).

            Up until they took a 1 point lead, the Terps looked like a team that could at least compete with any in the conference. The next 7 minutes showed that no lead they have will ever be safe because of their major fluctuations in offensive continuity.

            I still think Alex Len can be good, but last night was ugly for him to. I don’t know if it’s Mark Turgeon misusing him, or Len just going to the wrong spots on the floor, but seeing him beyond the 3 point line with a ball in his hands is like watching a dog at the vet. Jumpy, erratic, and completely uncomfortable with the situation he’s been put in.

            The two early fouls didn’t help, he never established his presence on the inside, and instead looked totally out of sorts besides a nice running hook shot  in the second half. The most worrisome part is this: Alex Len will have to be a reason that Maryland wins games this year. If this team is going to steal a few games from better teams, he can’t be an ancillary part, and last night he wasn’t even that. He was a complete liability on both ends of the court, and his lack of experience was completely exposed.

Credit where credit is due, Florida State certainly looked like a top tier ACC team. They may never develop into a consistent offensive force, but their man to man defense was the best I’ve seen this season. And what impressed me the most was their poise when things went south. When Maryland was making their charge in the second half, and Terrell Stoglin was incinerating their defense, the Seminoles never looked out of sorts. Instead, they weathered the storm by always answering the Terps with a bucket, and then efficiently pulled away from an inferior team. For Mark Turgeon and his players, this game should give them a belief that they can play with anyone, but they won't get any results until they determine why they can't prevent bad from going to worse.

A full slate of NFL games, A full on phobia of bees, and too many full cases of Bud Light (Maryland @ Florida State Preview)

Three legitimate reasons why I didn’t find my way around a keyboard this weekend to air my thoughts on Georgia Tech. For the record, I didn’t think Maryland would have any major difficulties with the yellow jackets, and judging by my sporadic gamecast checking, I was correct in that assumption. At 12-4 (2-1), Maryland has picked up the two conference wins that arrive at the door of every ACC team in a gift basket, and now move on to some tougher opponents.

Tonight, they’ll look to pick up a big road win against a Florida State team that just smacked around Roy Williams at home. Gary could’ve stumbled into Tallahassee with a middle of the pack CYO team and a blood alcohol content matching their assist to turnover ratio, and he STILL wouldn’t have lost by 33. This season of the Seminoles looks the same in your program, with the notable absence of Chris Singleton who left the show for more money. Let’s take a walk down the trail of tears.

Trouble in Tallahassee…

When you get outside the state of North Carolina, there aren’t a lot of superlatives thrown around the ACC, but Florida State is definitely deserving of this one: best man to man defense in college basketball. KenPom has the Seminoles ranked as the 4^th best adjusted defense in the NCAA this year, after ranking them the best in 2010 and 2011. Hamilton has made it a priority to recruit defense, and then coach it to perfection. Michael Snaer and Deividas Dulkys are two of the best defensive guards in the ACC, and Xavier Gibson and Bernard James each block more than a shot and half a game inside. To sum this up, there isn’t a defensive metric you can find where Florida State isn’t near the top of the list. Alabama’s defense was great and froze the Terps at 42 points earlier this season. FSU has the talent to turn that thermostat even lower.

This is a team that has underperformed its high preseason expectations. A lot of upperclassmen mixed with ironclad man-to-man defense is usually a recipe for success, and the Carolina game may have been just what the Noles need to get cooking. The shooting may not be repeatable, but the effort on the boards (they outrebounded the usually dominant Tar Heels 43-35) certainly is, especially against a smaller, less-talented Maryland team. Tonight's game should prove whether Florida State will live up to their "top 3 in the ACC" preseason billing, or whether they'll spend 2012 as an undercard.

FSU's Donald L. Tucker Center is the most underrated home court advantage in the ACC, and has an argument as the most underrated in the country.The sight of a garnet and gold mob leading Sportscenter becomes less and less jarring every year that Florida State knocks off a top 5 team. Historically, Maryland has fared well against the Noles, but they are an all-together different animal at home with the crowd noise supplementing their dominating defense. It would downright shock me to see Maryland score upwards of 75 points in this game, and I’m expecting below 70.

…But only on one side of the ball:

Florida State’s stage 5 clinger defense is USUALLY supported by as ugly of an offense as you can find in all of college basketball. Discounting the North Carolina game, which in many aspects looks like an aberration (32 points from Dulkys?!), FSU has played down to their reputation several times this year. They’ve scored under 60 three times, including the absolute horror show they put on against Harvard (14 points in the first half). This team has the unsavory ability to miss in bunches, and as long as they don’t get to the stripe where they’re adequate (70.1%), they usually continue to dig the hole deeper with rushed shots and the ever present turnover (18.2 TO/PG, 5^th worst in NCAA).

I’ll go out on a limb and say Lithuanian sensation Deividas Dulkys will play closer to his season scoring average (7.7 PPG) than he did against UNC (again, 32 points on a ridiculous 12/14 shooting). Even if he breaks into double digits, the majority of the scoring will be on the shoulders of Michael Snaer and Ian Miller. Snaer is crazy athletic, but all over the map with his shooting game to game. Miller was beginning to look like a consistent scoring option, putting up at least 15 in each of the 4 games prior to UNC. Then in the biggest offensive explosion of the year against the Tar Heels, he managed only 3 points in 14 minutes. Maryland has faced much better scorers than either of those two this season, and should willingly concede outside shots to them. Snaer’s only real danger is his free throw shooting (85.6%)

Keys:

Even though being smart with the ball is something that should happen every game, it’s especially important in this one. Florida State not only forces a heap of turnovers per game, but uses them to fuel their transition offense where they’re most comfortable. The fewer turnovers Maryland makes, the more times FSU will be forced into half court sets in which they tend to give away plenty turnovers of their own.

Unless it becomes completely necessary, get inside the 3 point line and into the lane. The Seminoles defense guards extremely well against 3 pointers (26.3 %, 5^th NCAA), and Maryland doesn’t necessarily stroke the 3 ball in their own right (34.4%, 170^th NCAA). What the Terps have been doing better in recent games is getting to the line and converting (72% FT last two games). Instead of throwing up a contested three early in the shot clock, look to make the extra pass, get inside, and draw some fouls. After all, the free throw line is the only place on the court that FSU’s suffocating defense can’t play.

SOMEBODY has to keep Dulkys in check during this game. I don’t think he can go off for another big game, but I’m sure Leonard Hamilton is willing to test that theory. He’ll be getting plenty of screens with a green light waiting at the end of them. Lots of his looks against UNC were uncontested, that cannot be the case in this game. A hot shooting night from him would open up the paint for Bernard James, create wider lanes for Snaer, and turn a subpar offensive team into a suddenly potent one.

Prediction:

Maryland needs a signature road win badly, and this would definitely qualify as one. They’ll have to hope FSU’s domination of a Final Four-caliber UNC team was just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. I think that the latter is more true of this Florida State team, and Maryland doesn’t have enough scorers to keep the defense from keying in on Stoglin. I don’t think an exceptional night from him is out of the question, but no one else on this team can create their own shot off the dribble with any consistency. Barring a major leap forward in productivity by Alex Len, I don’t see a second or third scorer capable of pushing the Terps over 70 on the scoreboard, which is what I think it will take for a win.

Florida State 67   Maryland 60